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In Search for the New Point of Equipoise - Kiev??? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-3-9 14:16:28 |Display all floors
There is no doubt that the polarization of Ukraine has passed the point of no return, as neither side would accept being under the rule of the other.  And, a unity government can only exist in name, but not in function.  Therefore, unless both sides engage in a full fledged war to annihilate the other, the only other option is to find a line of demarcation between the Western and Eastern Ukraine that would permit both to coexist peacefully, even if not on friendly terms.

Even in Kiev, there exists a significant pro-Russia minority that remains at risk of reprisals for any actions taken by the government in Crimea.  Likewise, even in Donetsk, there exists a significant pro-West minority.  This jigsaw of interlocking loyalties should have served as a framework for unification, but since the pro-West faction have essentially rejected the pro-Russian faction in every sphere, these interlocking loyalties have instead become worrisome points of future conflict.

From a moral standpoint, the side with the greater tolerance for its opponent should have the larger share of national territory of Ukraine as those living within it would have a greater degree of freedom and security.  One would have hoped that claiming to have the European values of democracy, the pro-West faction would be more tolerant, but news reports suggest otherwise.  It is like the farce of the western media that the religio-fanatical Muslim Brotherhood would usher in greater democracy in Egypt.  Or, the Western fallacy that the cannibals of the Free Syrian forces are better qualified to watch out for the human rights of their opponents, than their opponents themselves.  In Ukraine, we see a similar mismatch between the Free Ukraine movement and the unfree Ukraine it actually supports, dominated by EU-favoring fanatics.  This mismatch occurs all the way to Kiev.

Therefore, logically, if Ukraine is to be divided, it may very well include a divided capital of Kiev.  Whether or not this happens will not be dictated by the short term policies of Russia and Crimea, or by the Kiev government alone, but by the intentions of both sides and the actual correlation of forces which will propel the entire region toward a point of equilibrium.  History tends to repeat itself, and the temporary division of Berlin may very well re-materialize as the forces of the West and of Russia are forced to interlock in the Ukraine, centered on Kiev.


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Post time 2014-3-9 16:11:06 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-3-9 09:14

WILL GOOD WALLS MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS IN UKRAINE?

It is best for both sides to agree on a point of equipoise, than to let the people around Ukraine "sort it out themselves" which often entails street fights between mobs of supporters for each side.  Riots always entail losses of lives and property.  The end result, as in the case of Kiev itself, is "mobocracy", not democracy, as even the current leaders of the Kiev government were not elected for the posts they now hold.  The speaker was elected to be a parliamentarian, and then elected by parliament to be its speaker, but at no time was he elected, before the putsch, to be the President of the whole country.  And yet, he is given the role by a parliament that itself was never empowered to elect any president.  And so, there is a crisis of credibility reigning amongst the torch-light victors of Maidan.  To have to replicate this across every major town and city of Ukraine is something the Ukraine people have no obligation to experience.  They are entitled to a vote, but since there is no continuity between the government of Yakunovich and the Yatsenyuk, the conditions for a credible vote no longer exist.

The gentleman's way to agree to disagree is to draw a line through Kiev and the rest of Ukraine, allow cross migration across this new border, and live peacefully with each other thereafter.  

In time, though it may be a very long time, this line will fade away into history.  But for now, it will save thousands if not millions of lives, livelihoods, and property.  It will allow life to go on, and may even create a brief period of prosperity.


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Post time 2014-3-9 16:30:01 |Display all floors
Parliamentary resolutions in Kiev to keep Ukraine intact cannot change the reality that the Eastern half of Ukraine does not want the leadership or control of the Western half of Ukraine.  Keeping alive the demand for unity in the face of irreconciliable disunity only fans the flames of war without the hope of such war ever achieving unity or peace.  Such a false choice is merely a choice for anarchy and fratricide, not a choice for unity or for peace, because imposition of the will of Kiev on Crimea by force will be opposed by force, and will never succeed.  All it will succeed is tear up Ukraine and crush its people for the benefit of the politicians and oligarchs.  The endgame of a forced reunification is still division, albeit of a much poorer and weaker Ukraine.

The two sides should therefore sit down and begin negotiating the terms of their friendly separation.  At least, they will remain friends.  One day, they will come together again, minus a history of gore and death, due to the statesmanship of their leaders of today.  Future generations will thank them, that despite their deep disagreements, they chose to remain gentlemen to the very end.

Once violence begins, however, the other side will react, and then, it will be a fight to the finish, and all will be lost.  Hopefully, this will never happen.

Long Live Everybody!



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