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Helping Biden Turn His Pearl Harbor Into Independence Day [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-12-4 13:21:58 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-4 13:49

Biden's mission to Japan has failed.  The core mission he intended to accomplish was to convince Japan to engage China in dialogue over their dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyudao/Senkaku.  Instead, Abe told the press that Biden simply agreed with everything he wanted Biden to say.  So, not only did Biden not get what he wanted, he was made to appear to say what Abe wanted.  This is Japanese imperialism at its subtlest, to shut up its guest with smiles, and rudely put words in his mouth, by ventriloquism if needed.

This failure - to get Abe to agree to engage China in peace talks over Dioayudao/Senkaku - is a major diplomatic defeat for Biden and for the USA.

Rather than let Biden go back home with Japanese eggs all over his face, China should take the opportunity of Biden's visit to give him a fresh facial makeover, replete with massage, cleanser, and cologne.  And that is, to insist as is only rational for all civilized countries, that the only way to achieve stability and peace in Asia is for Japan and China to sit down and talk about their dispute over the sovereignty of Senkaku/Diaoyudao.  If there is not enough time for anything else, this is the first point, the only point, and the last point, China must remind Biden, and the world watching his every move and statement.

Corollary to this, if asked about other hypothecal situations or contigencies, China should drive home the point that without ongoing direct talks between Japan and China on the status of Dioayudao/Senkaku, a conflict resulting from a misunderstanding or miscommunication is a disaster that is almost certain to occur, and that China cannot prevent such an accident from occurring if Japan refuses to sit down and communicate with her on the status of Diaoyudao/Senkaku.  In short, if there is no peace talk, then in time, by random chance, a major conflict will most likely take place, at which point, events will overtake all goodwill and diplomacy, leading to a major upheaval.

Thirdly, China's ADIZ does not increase the risk of conflict, because without the ADIZ and a procedure for identification of aircrafts near China, China has a greater chance of making a mistake in considering a harmless military aircraft as being potentially threatening to her national security.  The ADIZ merely makes public what China has every right to monitor in private from within her own territory.  If reporting rules are followed in both China and Japan's ADIZ's, it becomes safer for all civilian and military air traffic, compared to when China cannot verify the intent of a foreign military aircraft near her sovereign airspace.  WHAT RAISES THE RISK IS WHEN JAPAN REFUSES TO IDENTIFY ITS PLANES THAT CAN CAUSE CHINA TO MISTAKE THEM FOR HOSTILE AIRCRAFTS AND TAKE DEFENSIVE ACTIONS.  The rules in themselves are harmless, and actually reduce the chance of misidentification and over-reaction.

So, in the brief 2 days that Biden will be in China, China has a chance to "cure" Biden of the Abe affliction.

1.  Insist that Japan must carry out peaceful negotiations with China over their dispute regarding the sovereignty status of Diayou/Senkaku.  This message must be hammered in on arrival, on every toast, and on departure.

2.  Equally emphasize that without peaceful talks, accidents are bound to happen due to miscommunications and misunderstandings, and that this lack of talks is what is causing the RISK OF WAR to rise exponentially with time.

3.  Explain that ADIZ's do not create risks.  They lower the risk of misidentification.  It is the failure to report one's ID and flight plan that creates RISK.  If China did not announce its ADIZ, it would still be monitoring the same area, and taking the same defensive measures when a potentially hostile aircraft is identified.  The ADIZ only makes such defensive measures unnecessary, so how can it make traveling through the East China Sea more dangerous?

4.  But as a parting reminder to Biden, Xi should tell him frankly that if Japan refuses to engage China in peaceful negotiations over their dispute over Diaoyudao, then America should tell Japan it cannot apply the Mutual Defense Treaty to Diaoyudao, because the purpose of the treaty is facilitate peace, not encourage war in East Asia.  Without an ongoing peace talk, the treaty becomes a blank check for making war on any country Japan wants to pick a fight with, and that is clearly not the intention, or the best interest, of the American people.  This gives Biden the leverage to ask Japan to enter into peace talks with China over Diaoyudao, or otherwise, Japan will take the US's commitment thru the Mutual Defense Treaty all for granted.

Biden's diplomatic adventures have never been as bad as this Tokyo visit was, where his original goals have all been sunk by the Japanese diplomatic corps in a surprise Pearl Harbor style attack.  But, rearmed and resupplied by Chinese diplomacy, the US and China will yet win the Naval Battle of Midway and the Marianas Turkey Shoot.

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Post time 2013-12-5 12:47:00 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-5 13:00


Little did we expect old friend Biden to show the Japanese what American diplomacy really is.  It is about finding a common ground, a peaceful solution to every problem, rather than about attacking another country, using the Mutual Defense Treaty as a shield, a shield that the US gave Japan during the heydey of the Cold War, which Japan is misusing as a blank check by which to grab islands belonging to China.  The US position on Diaoyudao has been very clear - it does not have a position on the sovereignty status of Dioayudao/Senkaku - meaning to say that Japan should make use of the window of opportunity of being protected by the Mutual Defense Treaty to engage China in peaceful negotiations, not the opposite of rejecting all talks and insisting on occupying Dioayudao/Senkaku by force of arms, Japanese and American.  Many militarists of the Trans-Pacific Partnership believe that the Mutual Defense Treaty is exactly what Japan is using it for, a shield to protect Japan, while Japan uses its samurai sword to slice off the toes of China and Taiwan at Diaoyu.  The rudeness of the Imperial Japanese Cabinet can be seen in the way they manipulated their domestic media and their international mouthpieces to downplay if not totally ignore the message that the US sent Biden to deliver - dialogue with China by Japan is in the US national interest, and also in the interest of Japan and China.  What is more outrageous and outside the pale of diplomatic decorum was for Abe to announce what Biden supposedly had agreed with him, irregardless of Biden not agreeing to having a Joint Statement, or the use of inflammatory words that Japan wanted the US to say about China.

There is little doubt that Abe thinks he has enough clout in Congress and the US military establishment to force Biden to submit to his will.  This reminds one of the way Hitler jawboned Neville Chamberlain into agreeing that a piece of Czechoslovakia must be given to Nazi Germany, called the Sudetenland.  The problem is, the firepower that Hitler used belonged to Germany, while the firepower Japan wants to use belongs to the USA, of which Biden is the Vice-President, not Abe.

Such rudeness from Japan is unbelievable, given that Biden went there to help Japan defuse a crisis, not make it worse for everybody.

Xi, on the other hand, had firsthand acquaintance with Biden, and was very comfortable discussing with him his views, candidly and constructively.  China is proving more of a partner to US national interests than Japan is.  One is working for peace and partnership, the other is working for war and a meaningless sacrifice of human lives just so Japan can cling to five rocks that it already admitted it stole from China in 1895.

I think Biden's trip to China is an unqualified success, beause he was able to get Xi to agree that the two countries should work toward peace, and not towards war.  In the warm atmosphere of Diaoyutai (a reminder to all foreign dignitaries that Diaoyudao is part of China's history), Biden achieved a major diplomatic victory for the USA.  Not only will the ADIZ be transformed into an instrument of communication and trust, Biden has succeeded in beating the spears of both sides of the Pacific into ploughshares for peace and progress of all mankind.

This kind of Trans-Pacific Partnership is what Biden's "Pivot to China" has achieved beyond expectations.  Truly, Joe has turned a Pearl Harbor of US diplomacy into a July 4th Independence Day with his unique and deep personal insights into China's real intentions and priorities.  Surprisingly, despite contrary opinions of the Japanese, the priorities of USA and China are far closer and more identical, than Japan's to either one of them.

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Post time 2013-12-5 17:19:57 |Display all floors
I really hope it will turn out like what you say here but I think it is still too early to tell. Let's hope you are right.

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Post time 2013-12-6 12:30:17 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-6 13:22
huaqiao Post time: 2013-12-5 17:19
I really hope it will turn out like what you say here but I think it is still too early to tell. Let ...

You are right.  Things may not turn out as I expect them to.  But, you can clearly see the "signal" coming from Washington DC even before Biden wrapped up his talks in Beijing.  Someone, somewhere, had convinced the highest levels of the US government that the ADIZ, in itself, is not a problem at all, because it was never intended by China to be a "no fly zone" or its exclusive "sovereign airspace".  There is no threat in the ADIZ.  The US is most clear about this point, despite Japan's hysterical remonstrations that it is being attacked by an ADIZ, which it also had established since 44 years ago, and even extended towards Taiwan 3 years ago.  The correct interpretation of China's ADIZ is that it is China's attempt to avoid intercepting planes that are not hostile to her sovereignty, and getting the aircrafts within the ADIZ to inform her air traffic controllers of their identity and flight plan is usually enough for China to dismiss them as non-combatant aircrafts.  Both Hagel and Dempsey on December 4, 2013, told the press that what is most important is for China and the US to sit down and clarify the rules so that there will be no miscommunication and accidental confrontation.  There is no doubt whatsover that the ADIZ China declared was not meant to attack the US with, as there are absolutely no US bases within that ADIZ, and what the ADIZ can do beyond its own defined perimeter is even less.  The only countries that need to worry about it are those who clearly want to violate China's sovereign airspace, i.e., Japan.

But the Mutual Defense Treaty was never meant to be a blank check that Japan can cash every time it wants to go to war taking over the island or territory of another country.  The Mutual Defense Treaty is not a Nazi pact of aggression, as Japan was used to getting, after its similar Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty expired under American pressure on Britain to not renew it in 1920.  The interpretation of the Mutual Defense Treaty as including Diaoyudao contradicts the US Congress' interpretation of the original Okinawa Reversion Treaty, in that sovereignty over Diaoyudao was never transferred to Japan.  The original US "adminsitrative control" derives its ultimate authority from the Republic of China, through its commitment to honoring the UN mandate to the US to administer the terms of surrender of Japan in 1945.  This mandate has long ceased to exist.  The government of the ROC in Taiwan has repeatedly demanded Japan relinquish its "administrative control" over Diaoyudao.  The administrative control of Japan over Diaoyudao is thus presently without any basis in international law.

This key point that China wants to hear from Washington, is that Japan should sit down and talk with China regarding the sovereignty status of Diaoyudao, in effect negating the assumption that Japan already has sovereignty over Diaoyudao, which it does not have by any interpretation of the Okinawa Reversion Treaty or the Mutual Defense Treaty.  The matter of Dioayudao is strictly a China-Japan issue.  And indeed, before 2014 comes around, Japan will cease to be able to fly over Diaoyudao or land anyone on it.  This is a fact that will drive the discussion.  Japan's bad habit of sending 8 F15's to intercept China's twin propeller patrol plane is simply impossible to do within China's East China Sea ADIZ.  They will almost certainly be shot down, with no further warning, and no subsequent apologies.  It is indeed time to call an aggressor an aggressor and treat him like the war criminal that he was.  It took China 68 years after the surrender of the Japanese empire to enforce Japan's Instrument of Surrender of September 2, 1945, in which Japan obligates itself to return to China the islands it stole from her by violence and greed, the first of which was in fact Diaoyudao.  The Tokyo Tribunal failed to protect China's sovereign interests.  The San Francisco Peace Treaty did not even obtain the consent of China.  For the first time in 68 long years, China is taking back what has always belonged to her, on November 23, 2013, the eve of the 119th Anniversary of the Battle of Lushunkou of 1894, during which Japan massacred all of its residents without any mercy, to man, woman, infant or even the pets and hogs raised by its inhabitants.  

Japan the aggressor will stop its aggression before 2014 dawns on a new Asia.

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