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This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-4 13:49|
Biden's mission to Japan has failed. The core mission he intended to accomplish was to convince Japan to engage China in dialogue over their dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyudao/Senkaku. Instead, Abe told the press that Biden simply agreed with everything he wanted Biden to say. So, not only did Biden not get what he wanted, he was made to appear to say what Abe wanted. This is Japanese imperialism at its subtlest, to shut up its guest with smiles, and rudely put words in his mouth, by ventriloquism if needed.
This failure - to get Abe to agree to engage China in peace talks over Dioayudao/Senkaku - is a major diplomatic defeat for Biden and for the USA.
Rather than let Biden go back home with Japanese eggs all over his face, China should take the opportunity of Biden's visit to give him a fresh facial makeover, replete with massage, cleanser, and cologne. And that is, to insist as is only rational for all civilized countries, that the only way to achieve stability and peace in Asia is for Japan and China to sit down and talk about their dispute over the sovereignty of Senkaku/Diaoyudao. If there is not enough time for anything else, this is the first point, the only point, and the last point, China must remind Biden, and the world watching his every move and statement.
Corollary to this, if asked about other hypothecal situations or contigencies, China should drive home the point that without ongoing direct talks between Japan and China on the status of Dioayudao/Senkaku, a conflict resulting from a misunderstanding or miscommunication is a disaster that is almost certain to occur, and that China cannot prevent such an accident from occurring if Japan refuses to sit down and communicate with her on the status of Diaoyudao/Senkaku. In short, if there is no peace talk, then in time, by random chance, a major conflict will most likely take place, at which point, events will overtake all goodwill and diplomacy, leading to a major upheaval.
Thirdly, China's ADIZ does not increase the risk of conflict, because without the ADIZ and a procedure for identification of aircrafts near China, China has a greater chance of making a mistake in considering a harmless military aircraft as being potentially threatening to her national security. The ADIZ merely makes public what China has every right to monitor in private from within her own territory. If reporting rules are followed in both China and Japan's ADIZ's, it becomes safer for all civilian and military air traffic, compared to when China cannot verify the intent of a foreign military aircraft near her sovereign airspace. WHAT RAISES THE RISK IS WHEN JAPAN REFUSES TO IDENTIFY ITS PLANES THAT CAN CAUSE CHINA TO MISTAKE THEM FOR HOSTILE AIRCRAFTS AND TAKE DEFENSIVE ACTIONS. The rules in themselves are harmless, and actually reduce the chance of misidentification and over-reaction.
So, in the brief 2 days that Biden will be in China, China has a chance to "cure" Biden of the Abe affliction.
1. Insist that Japan must carry out peaceful negotiations with China over their dispute regarding the sovereignty status of Diayou/Senkaku. This message must be hammered in on arrival, on every toast, and on departure.
2. Equally emphasize that without peaceful talks, accidents are bound to happen due to miscommunications and misunderstandings, and that this lack of talks is what is causing the RISK OF WAR to rise exponentially with time.
3. Explain that ADIZ's do not create risks. They lower the risk of misidentification. It is the failure to report one's ID and flight plan that creates RISK. If China did not announce its ADIZ, it would still be monitoring the same area, and taking the same defensive measures when a potentially hostile aircraft is identified. The ADIZ only makes such defensive measures unnecessary, so how can it make traveling through the East China Sea more dangerous?
4. But as a parting reminder to Biden, Xi should tell him frankly that if Japan refuses to engage China in peaceful negotiations over their dispute over Diaoyudao, then America should tell Japan it cannot apply the Mutual Defense Treaty to Diaoyudao, because the purpose of the treaty is facilitate peace, not encourage war in East Asia. Without an ongoing peace talk, the treaty becomes a blank check for making war on any country Japan wants to pick a fight with, and that is clearly not the intention, or the best interest, of the American people. This gives Biden the leverage to ask Japan to enter into peace talks with China over Diaoyudao, or otherwise, Japan will take the US's commitment thru the Mutual Defense Treaty all for granted.
Biden's diplomatic adventures have never been as bad as this Tokyo visit was, where his original goals have all been sunk by the Japanese diplomatic corps in a surprise Pearl Harbor style attack. But, rearmed and resupplied by Chinese diplomacy, the US and China will yet win the Naval Battle of Midway and the Marianas Turkey Shoot.