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This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-11-24 21:44|
CHINA'S SETTING UP OF ITS OWN AIR DEFENSE IDENTIFICATION ZONE two days ago may have something to do with Japan's recent large scale military exercise involving invasionary tactics and air-sea-and-land forces. These are not defensive exercises although they are billed as "retaking" an island, when in fact, it could just as easily be applied to "taking" any island, or attacking any coastal city that can be reached by air, sea or land. The size of the forces deployed by Japan in its recent naval exercise, of 34,000 troops and 300 armored vehicles and tanks, is probably three times the size of China's forces on Hainandao, the home of its South Sea Fleet. It is thus not a defensive force, but an invasionary force, and its strength would be an overkill for Diaoyudao, but would be appropriate for taking down Hainandao, or any other Chinese major naval base. Thus, China woke up to the Japanese threat.
Japanese culture is imbued with themes of impersonation, as in the Kagemusha who impersonated Shingen of the Takeda Clan. The outcome of such impersonation can be any of several different themes. Japan also learned the Art of War from Sunzi and is bound to use surprise, diversion and deception, or it would not be Samurai enough. In this case, the deception can be that Japan is merely preparing to "retake" islands previously invaded by a foreign power. And the diversion, in this case, would most likely be a skirmish over Diaoyudao that serves to divert Chinese defensive forces to this region, while another branch of the Japanese invasion force overwhelms a different Chinese city or naval base (more likely). And Hainandao, although farthest from Japan, just as Hawaii was, compared to the Philippines, is more strategic to China's naval defense, and therefore, would invite the most adventurous Japanese military offensive, ahead of other potential objectives.
Needless to say, now that all this is open to public discussion, Japan will have to change its plan and choose other targets, as well as other objectives, but time is running out on Japan, whose economy is being artificially sustained by printing currency, rather than by exports.
The North Sea Fleet of China is based in Qingdao, where a pipeline accident just occurred two days ago with 50 or more casualties. Is this purely accidental?
The East Sea Fleet is based in Ningpo, and that is what is being protected by China's recently announced air defense identification zone, so that there will be no surprise attacks by air on this strategic base. Thanks to Japanese naval exercises that have nothing to do with defense, and everything to do with invading and taking over large naval bases, ten times or more larger than Diaoyudao, and Japan's recent brazen interference in China's preceding West Pacific naval exercises, showing no respect for international norms, China may have been alarmed and begun to take the "Japanese Threat" seriously, once again.