Author: abramicus

Japan Likely on Track for Second Pearl Harbor This December [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-11-24 04:27:19 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-11-24 04:29


History is remarably prescient in many ways, because in both the Battle of Lushunkou of 1894 and the subsequent Battle of Weihaiwei of 1895, Japan used a diversion to separate China's defensive forces into two before it delivers its coup de grace.

Did China just avoid a Japanese invasion of Hainan Island by sheer serendipity???

If so, the Kamikaze have just turned against the Japanese empire, and Japan is in big trouble as the gods who used to protect Japan, have now decided to protect China instead.

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Post time 2013-11-24 17:12:55 |Display all floors
You have a point. The Japanese also used a diversion during the attack on Pearl Harbour. Outwardly, they appeared to be at peace with the US but attacked Pearl Harbour sneakily and suddenly when it's "asleep". That would have ruined the US fleet completely too over there but again, providence was not on the side of Japan. The US fleet wasn't completely destroyed and subsequently, the battle of midway brought Japan a serious blow.

Japan is not doing well economically, losing out to Korea and even China to a certain extent. Strong brands of Japan such as Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba...etc are not doing as well as before. Even recently Panasonic has to retrench thousands of workers. Could this fuss over Diaoyudao by Abe be a kind of diversion? Could he be trying to cause havoc just to create a nationalistic feeling of the Japanese people to blind them to the economic doldrum of Japan?  If so, he is playing with fire. Another war would bring more destruction than what the 2nd World War had done.

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Post time 2013-11-25 06:37:51 |Display all floors
huaqiao Post time: 2013-11-24 17:12
You have a point. The Japanese also used a diversion during the attack on Pearl Harbour. Outwardly,  ...


Japan, contrary to its propaganda of fearing a "China Threat", has been provoking China to a fight by unilaterally nationalizing the Diaoyudao islands on 9/11/2012, slightly more than a year ago, obtaining the public agreement of the US that any fight it has with China over Diaoyudao will trigger a US response (although the treaty did not specify it has to be a military response against China).  And of course, having obtained the license to rob China anew of its Diaoyudao, Abe has no reason to back down at all.  

Now, it is China's attempt to preserve its sovereignty over Diaoyudao that is being trumpeted as aggression in the western media.  And indeed, without being aggressive toward the aggressor, China has no chance of keeping its islands.  With every naval exercise China conducts, Japan then adds twice as much firepower to its arsenal, and the most recently concluded naval exercise from Nov 2 to Nov 18 mobilized 34,000 troops, 300 tanks, and countless fighter planes and helicopters, and hundreds of ships, supposedly to train for retaking Diaoyudao that even now is still unoccupied, except occasionally by Japanese rightwing activists and their police guards.  

Clearly, Japan is rehearsing for its part in a general attack on Chinese islands and ports, which of course it will not do on its own, but only after the Joint Defense Treaty is triggered by another Mukden Incident, whch is all too easy to false flag or provoke.  By declaring an ADIZ over Diaoyudao, and the East China Sea, China serves notice to Japan that any attack by its planes or ships on Chinese targets is an act of aggression, and every response by China is justified by self-defense.

Of course, a China War is in the works.  How else could all these threads of threats come about without a common objective?  The Japanese naval exercise can be applied to Hainan island with very little modification, and be successful, at least for a while, until reinforcements come.

Japan has no reason to "retake" Diaoyudao, if it has no reason to occupy it right now, which is far easier to do.  Japan is preparing an invasionary force to take Hainandao down, and destroy it, even if it cannot hold it permanently.

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Post time 2013-11-25 16:25:11 |Display all floors
I also do not see China as the aggressor. There is no reason to be. What China needs is peace and harmony for economic progress. A war would dampen that tremendously. Only Japan and Philippines have the motive for war and they are doing their best to instigate a war to change the status quo to gain more grounds from China. If there is a war, and when it is over, China will suffer more great losses compared to Japan and Philippines. The economic momentum would derail and China has to start all over again. As for both Japan and the Philippines, they are already in a bad shape anyway.

The US would likely help but whether it is military or not, I am not sure. It depends on the US citizens. Some are already tired of all the wars that the US government gets involved in for some reason or other. So the way to access this is to "feel the pulse". Not so good, I am afraid. There are so much complaints about chinese behaviours concerning human rights, and racist comments on chinese. China is portrayed as the "bad guy" in the international community generally. China is new to international politics so there is a lot to learn and a heavy price to pay. Japan and Philippines are taking advantage of the situation to make a quick kill before the opportunity is gone. They are doing the provoking, not China. I suspect the US is also helping out with "minor incidents" concerning "human rights".

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Post time 2013-11-25 17:14:47 |Display all floors
huaqiao Post time: 2013-11-25 16:25
I also do not see China as the aggressor. There is no reason to be. What China needs is peace and ha ...

Thanks for your inputs.

China's decentralization has affected its foreign policy directions in some ways, as its handling of the Huangyan incident, refusing to discuss not just sovereignty, but even sharing of resources, was contrary to its own declared policy, leading to the derailment of its Peaceful Rise policy.  My suspicion is that some SOES, like the CNOOC, have so much clout with the variouis branches of Chinese military and foreign affairs departments that they could influence them to issue statements that favor their claims, using China's military might as backup, not realizing that China's military might is limited when it comes to international military standards, even if it is superior to that of its unruly neighbors such as Vietnam and the Philippines.  This gave other global powers, such as Japan, for example, the opportunity to exploit China's real lack of ability to prosecute even local naval battles, with both the Philippines and Vietnam, and also with Japan, particularly after China's moves in the South China Sea would have alarmed the US in such a manner as to literally force it to back Japan in its spat with China over Diaoyudao.  This is what is called "gaining small and losing big".  But, you cannot expect SOES to think about the national interest, especially when it is used to acting brazenly within China, using domestic police and military power to effect its wishes with near impunity, as in the clearing of lands occupied by the urban poor or the powerless peasants.  Well, the Filipinos and Vietnamese may look as weak as the peasants, or only marginally stronger, but they are backed by a superpower.  And when push comes to shove, the SOES slink back into the shadows, unwilling to share in the natural resources they hoped to monopolize if the Vietnamese and Filipinos were driven away, and leaviing the Chinese government and public to shoulder the brunt of any military conflict or economic embargo, all the while still refusing to allow the government to negotiate a sharing agreement with these smaller countries, which it views as totally belonging to itself.

When Deng was in charge, the SOES could not dictate national military or foreign policy.   Now they can, and you can see the foreign policy of China change, especially after Hu stepped down, but even in the last year of his term, they were discarding the Peaceful Rise and the avoid hegemonism advice of Deng, in favor of an assertive but still miiltarily unready China in seizing the natural resources they deem belong solely to them.  If there had been stronger discussions about sharing of resources at the outset of the dispute over Huangyan, Japan would not have had the opportunity to nationalize Diaoyudao.  There is a price for arrogance, and Sunzi said, it is called "defeat".

But the real leaders of China are not arrogant.  It s their inability to rein in the domestic bullies, often the SOES, in their forages into the neighborhood of China, that has given them a bad name and an unpleasant image as bullies, since they back the uncompromising attitude of their diplomats who are in turn afraid of the SOES who have influence all over China.  Mind you, SOES are not bad at all.  It is when they influence government and foreign policy to serve their narrow interests that they hurt China, and in this case, badly.

To have a balanced foreign policy, one with continuity with the pollcies of Deng, China must have a more centralized, rather than a less centralized, government, and any attempts by local governments or SOES to set foreign relations must not only be stopped, but it must also be penalized and prevented.

Nevertheless, overall, China's defense of its sovereignty remains well grounded in internatioal law, and reasonable in the context of the actual threat of Japanese aggression and piratical behavior toward China's islands.  There was no mistake on the part of the central leadership, only distortions by the lower echelons and local governments that exploit the noble aims of the central government for their selfish purposes.  As Xi pushes against corruption and undue influence, including of the SOES, China's foreign policy will become more coherent, consistent, and compelling to friends and foes alike, as it has been and should always be.

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Post time 2013-11-27 00:05:59 |Display all floors
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Post time 2013-11-27 18:11:50 |Display all floors
soapdodger Post time: 2013-11-27 00:05
Oh gosh ... where to start?

Does your hatred of the Japanese ... and your constant sabre-rattling ...

It all started when Japan "bought" the island. By doing so, Japan implies that the island belongs to Japan when it is not true. After the second world war, USA gave administrative rights of the island, not ownership, to Japan. Before the war, that island was not part of Japan at all. The purchase of that island was a provocation because all these while the matter of the islands in South China Sea are still pending for further discussion. It is only right that China objected to this. Which country would not? Is that a provocation on the part of China? Likely not. China is only defending what belongs to China. Despite what Philippines and Japan are doing China has consistently insist on a peaceful discussion but Japan and Philippines would not. Instead, they went on an all-out effort to rally support from the international communities to support them against China. Who is doing the provoking? Should China keep quiet and accept it? Who is the bully here? Establishing the zone is what any country would do. China has done it according to international laws, not something of her own. Is it OK for any country to do it but not China? Why is there a double standard?  Who is going on the offensive?

Here is an analogy:

Bullying is common in high schools. A group of students would gang up and pick on a student. No matter what that student does, the bullies would always find fault and pick a fight with him, even if it is just normal stuff. Should the student continue to be bullied or should he stand up against the bullies? Is this not similar to what is happening between China, Japan and Philippines?

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