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CHINA'S DEFENSE WHITE PAPER SHOWS HOW INADEQUATE ITS MILITARY POWER REALLY IS. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-4-18 14:05:05 |Display all floors
A tiny North Korea has an army of 1.2 million soldiers, and many times more reserves.

A large country such as China has only 0.8 million soliders, and practically no reserves.

Time to think about how to defend China's many citizens traveling through dangerous countries and China's many islands being eyed by greedy foreign powers ever ready to claim them as their own.

We are glad China chose transparency.

Now we know how poor China's real defenses are, why China must work harder to defend its borders and its nationals.

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Post time 2013-4-18 15:22:55 |Display all floors
Manpower doesn't tell you anything about an army's quality.
Patria est ubicunque bene/Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

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Post time 2013-4-18 15:46:02 |Display all floors
The PLA is the world's largest military force, with a strength of approximately 2,250,000 personnel.

Paramilitary: approximately 1,500,000

reserves 4,000,000

deployable..................7,750,000
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2013-4-18 19:03:42 |Display all floors
Alex2010 Post time: 2013-4-18 15:22
Manpower doesn't tell you anything about an army's quality.

Yes it is true thing, we can not judge the strength of country through counting numbers of soldiers in the army or in the defense system. Technology should also be counted and what are the weapons they have.
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Post time 2013-4-19 13:30:07 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-4-19 13:36

WHY NUMBERS ARE MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THAN FIREPOWER

China should not believe for one microsecond that numbers are less important than "quality" or technological superiority of each fighting unit.  This is a fallacy that turns China's overwhelming advantage into an overwhelming disadvantage.  And the logic is quite simple and plain.

Each fighting unit can be characterized by its firepower (p), its rate of firing (r), and its range of fire (d).  Each army can be summated by multiplying the above factors by the number of such units.

But, the vulnerability (lifespan) of each such unit is dependent on the number of the opponent's number of fighting units as well.

If Country A has N units and Country B has M units, the effectiveness of A's forces divided by the number of opposing units attacking it is its true value.  

Thus, N x Pa x Ra x Da/M is the true combat value of A's forces.

Likewise, M x Pb x Rb x Db/N is the true combat value of B's forces.

Therefore, the ratio of the combat value of A with respect to B equals

N x Pa x Ra x Da/M divided by M x Pb x Rb x Db/N =

N^2/M^2 x (PRDa/PRDb), where PRD is the product of all the factors that make for the fighting quality of the unit.

Therefore, to overcome a PRDa/PRDb disadvantage of 1/4, Country A needs only to increase its number of units to twice that of B, i.e., N/M = 2, as N^2/M^2 would then equal to 4, and 4 x (1/4) = 1 or parity.

With China's population easily four times that of other countries, the technological advantage its opponents would need to achieve would have to be 16:1 just to achieve parity, but in order to take full advantage of its large population, it must have a force that is 4 times the size of others, which is doable.  

To imagine that numbers can neutralize technology, one needs look no farther than the history of China's emergence from the First Sino-Japanese War as essentially having achieved parity with the Imperial Japanese Army even before Hiroshima and Nagasaki, through its guerrilla warfare on the Mainland.  The same logic explains the ability of the poorly armed Vietnamese to survive one of the longest wars in modern history.  We are talking about achieving parity, not total victory, which is all that defense entails.  China should not embark on aggressive or offensive wars using this formula, because like the example of the Gambler's Ruin, those who live by the sword will eventually die by the sword, and China has no need to risk its future for any moment of vainglory that is never worth the effort.  All aggressive empires have eventually been destroyed by its enemies and conquered peoples because wars of conquest are by nature risky no matter how strong one may be.






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Post time 2013-4-19 14:12:38 |Display all floors
Most modern armies have shaved off numbers in favour of relying on technology. In conventional warfare, technological superiority wins. China watched Desert Storm very carefully and has wisely trimmed the numerical fat and invested heavily in modernization based on the results of the Gulf War engagement.

Remember, at the time of Desert Storm, the Iraqi army was the 5th largest in the world and had had recent battle experience in its war with Iran. In less than seven months, using technological and air superiority, the US-led coalition killed 20,000 - 35,000 Iraqi soldiers and wounded over 75,000. The coalition itself sustained 482 deaths and 458 - 776 wounded. That's a pretty one-sided war, bordering on a massacre. Sobering evidence that troop numbers don't mean as much as they used to.

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Post time 2013-4-19 14:41:19 |Display all floors
Col Post time: 2013-4-19 14:12
Most modern armies have shaved off numbers in favour of relying on technology. In conventional warfa ...

Numbers do count.....

If you want to put down revolutionaries.....and China is always doing that.
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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