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纽约时报:印度vs中国vs埃及 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-2-7 10:10:52 |Display all floors
This post was edited by linlinlinlin at 2013-2-7 10:11

如果你来到印度,没有印度人要你做中印比较,那就奇了怪了。我的这次印度之行也不例外。不过我认为,如果能够再扩大一下视野,来个印度、中国、埃及三方比较,或许能得出更有启迪意义的结果:印度中央政府疲弱,但公民社会确实强大,选举和各个阶层的协会组织很是热闹;中国中央政府威武,公民社会十分疲软,然而却有一股扯着蛋急于表达自我的强烈冲动;埃及,哎!政府疲社会软,没一样中用,所以革命成果极易被组织能力强大的团体,即可以在自由的清真寺进行组织活动的穆斯林兄弟会所窃取甚至改弦更张。究其原因,在于埃及强权的突然倒台,而公民社会又因为长达50年的压制和拒绝真正的选举而难以有所作为。不过,有一样是这三个国家所共有的:年龄在30岁以下的青年军,他们通过科技联系日益紧密,而接受教育的程度却大相径庭。

我的观点:在这三个国家当中,谁能用好青年军,即谁能够将青年大军转变为可以几十年不断分红的“人口红利”,而不是几十年不断爆炸的“人口炸弹”,谁就能在二十一世纪实现繁荣。这样的一个社会,需要给年轻人提供更多的教育、工作机会和表达权利,以实现他们所有的潜能。

《方法为王》(How)的作者,LRN公司首席执行官多夫·塞德曼(Dov Seidman)认为,这场竞赛在于“谁能够激发更多的年轻人去建设一个更广泛的繁荣社会,而这种繁荣需要领导人、父母和老师为他们创建一个良好的环境,让年轻人可以去追求自己的事业而不仅仅是一份工作,获得不仅仅是超越而是远远超越他们父母一辈的美好生活,”他说,没有实现这一目标的国家其青年军不但是失业者,而且是不宜雇佣者,“他们脱离这个互联的世界,徒有空望他国年轻人实现自我的潜能和好奇心而独自悲叹。”  
如果你的国家有强大的政府或是强大的公民社会,它就有能力奋起面对这些挑战。如果你的国家两者均无,那情况就真的不妙了,这也正是埃及挣扎不起的原因所在。在提供年轻人教育、基础设施和工作方面,中国领先于他国,但在解放人的自由和好奇心方面却落后于他国。印度,这是一个很让人有想象空间的国度,如果它的政府管理和腐败现象能够得到控制的话。在这里,人们向上流动的追求,尤其是在女性当中非常明显。上星期,我参加了能源与资源学院(The Energy and Resources Institute)的毕业典礼。其中,被颁奖的12名最优秀的学生当中,11名是女性。

“印度现在年龄在25岁以下的年轻人为5.6亿,10到19岁之间的为2.25亿,”印人力资源发展国务部长塔鲁尔(Shashi Tharoor)解释说,“所以未来40年我们将拥有非常年轻的劳动年龄人口。”而在这一阶段,中国以及广大的工业化国家正在不断老龄化。据塔鲁尔介绍,中国目前的平均年龄是38岁,而印度在28岁左右。未来20年,这一差距还将继续扩大,所以这将成为印度巨大的人口红利。“倘若我们能够提供他们以教育机会,针对不同人群提供相应的职业培训和大学教育,他们就能够利用二十一世纪全球经济所提供给他们的机会,”塔鲁尔说,“如果干得好,印度将成为全球的人才市场;如果干糟了,没有比找不到工作,失意的的年轻人更糟糕的了。”

事实上,印度农村地区有些愤懑的年轻人已经开始投向毛泽东主义。“印度部落人口中有毛左,他们是没有从现代化的印度提供的机会中得到好处的人。”塔鲁尔说。最近几年,印度625个县(districts)当中有165个县发生过毛左事件,毛左们将所有那些被“印度梦”甩下的失意者纳入旗下。正因为此,印度现在大力吸引贫穷儿童入学。印度运行有全球最大的午餐计划,每天向学校提供2.5亿份免费午餐。同时,印度将其技术院校的数目夸大一倍,从原来的8所增加到现在的16所,并准备建立14所新的创新与研究性大学。

然而,没有政府管理的改善,这一切的努力都将是徒劳,宝洁印度前首席执行官,最新作品《印度在夜里成长:一个强国的自由案例》作者古尔恰兰·达斯(Gurcharan Das)认为,“雄心勃勃的印度找不到可以支持的领袖,因为没有一个人关心公共产品,为什么我们在法院寻求正义要15年的时间,修一条公路要12年的时间?(年轻人的)期望与政府的表现之间差距甚大。我的论点认为印度在政府的昏睡中已经崛起,这是一个公共领域失败而私人领域成功的故事。”

这也正是印度在夜里成长的寓意所在,因为政府一直死睡着没醒。“然而印度一定要学着在白日里成长,”他说,“在中国理顺他们的政治之前,印度如果能够理顺政府管理,我们就捷足先登了……你需要一个强大的政府和一个强大的社会,如此社会才能让政府承担责任。印度只有社会的精英加入政府,才能实现一个强大的政府,而中国只有最优秀的公务员进入私营领域,才能获得一个强大的社会。”  

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Post time 2013-2-7 10:14:16 |Display all floors
It’s hard to escape a visit to India without someone asking you to compare it to China. This visit was no exception, but I think it’s more revealing to widen the aperture and compare India, China and Egypt. India has a weak central government but a really strong civil society, bubbling with elections and associations at every level. China has a muscular central government but a weak civil society, yet one that is clearly straining to express itself more. Egypt, alas, has a weak government and a very weak civil society, one that was suppressed for 50 years, denied real elections and, therefore, is easy prey to have its revolution diverted by the one group that could organize, the Muslim Brotherhood, in the one free space, the mosque. But there is one thing all three have in common: gigantic youth bulges under the age of 30, increasingly connected by technology but very unevenly educated.

My view: Of these three, the one that will thrive the most in the 21st century will be the one that is most successful at converting its youth bulge into a “demographic dividend” that keeps paying off every decade, as opposed to a “demographic bomb” that keeps going off every decade. That will be the society that provides more of its youth with the education, jobs and voice they seek to realize their full potential.

This race is about “who can enable and inspire more of its youth to help build broad societal prosperity,” argues Dov Seidman, the author of “How” and C.E.O. of LRN, which has an operating center in India. “And that’s all about leaders, parents and teachers creating environments where young people can be on a quest, not just for a job, but for a career — for a better life that doesn’t just surpass but far surpasses their parents.” Countries that fail to do that will have a youth bulge that is not only unemployed, but unemployable, he argued. “They will be disconnected in a connected world, despairing as they watch others build and realize their potential and curiosity.”

If your country has either a strong government or a strong civil society, it has the ability to rise to this challenge. If it has neither, it will have real problems, which is why Egypt is struggling. China leads in providing its youth bulge with education, infrastructure and jobs, but lags in unleashing freedom and curiosity. India is the most intriguing case — if it can get its governance and corruption under control. The quest for upward mobility here, especially among women and girls, is palpable. I took part in the graduation ceremony for The Energy and Resources Institute last week. Of 12 awards for the top students, 11 went to women.

“India today has 560 million young people under the age of 25 and 225 million between the ages of 10 and 19,” explained Shashi Tharoor, India’s minister of state for human resource development. “So for the next 40 years we should have a youthful working-age population” at a time when China and the broad industrialized world is aging. According to Tharoor, the average age in China today is around 38, whereas in India it’s around 28. In 20 years, that gap will be much larger. So this could be a huge demographic dividend — “provided that we can educate our youth — offering vocational training to some and university to others to equip them to take advantage of what the 21st-century global economy offers,” said Tharoor. “If we get it right, India becomes the workhorse of the world. If we get it wrong, there is nothing worse than unemployable, frustrated” youth.

Indeed, some of India’s disaffected youth are turning to Maoism in rural areas. “We have Maoists among our tribal populations, who have not benefited from the opportunities of modern India,” Tharoor said. There have been violent Maoist incidents in 165 of India’s 625 districts in recent years, as Maoists tap into all those left out of the “Indian dream.” So there is now a huge push here to lure poor kids into school. India runs the world’s biggest midday lunch program, serving 250 million free school lunches each day. It’s also doubled its number of Indian Institutes of Technology, from eight to 16, and is planning 14 new universities for innovation and research.

But this will all be for naught without better governance, argues Gurcharan Das, the former C.E.O. of Procter & Gamble India, whose latest book is “India Grows at Night: A Liberal Case for a Strong State.” “The aspirational India has no one to vote for, because no one is talking the language of public goods. Why should it take us 15 years to get justice in the courts or 12 years to build a road? The gap between [youth] aspirations and government performance is huge. My thesis is that India has risen despite the state. It is a story of public failure and private success.”

That is what Das means by India grows at night, when government sleeps. “But India must learn to grow during the day,” he said. “If India fixes its governance before China fixes its politics that is who will win. ... You need a strong state and a strong society, so the society can hold the state accountable. India will only get a strong state when the best of society join the government, and China will only get a strong society when the best Mandarins go into the private sector.”






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