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This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-12-4 16:13|
sansukong Post time: 2012-12-4 08:19
If China has become what China is, at its present state ............ i.e.
It is reasonable for Taiwan to wait for China to take the lead, as China is stronger by far. But some situations do not require strength as they require boldness. One example is the famous Empty Castle Strategy (kong chengji) where a stronger enemy can be repulsed by a weaker one which shows unusual courage. The other situation is after Zhege Liang had passed away, he pre-arranged for a wooden statue like himself to be shown at a distance to the armies of Caocao, which then thought they were in a trap and retreated. These examples do not fully demonstrate the uniqueness of the Diaoyudao situation, because they were bluffs. Here, there is no bluff. It is just a matter of proper timing of moves which make Japan fall into an inferior position all by itself.
If China does not want or dare to make the move, Taiwan should. Why? Because it can only win, not lose.
Take this main sequence of moves:
Taiwan lands a thousand civilians with plain-clothed guards on Diaoyudao. Can the Japanese shoot them? No, because under the watchful eyes of China, if they do, they will never leave Diaoyudao alive. Can the Japanese arrest them? No, because they outnumber the Japanese by far, and can manually do combat with them, and even capture the Japanese guards. Can the Japanese send in reinforcements by Ospreys and parachuted troops? They can try, but China will have every reason to send in her own special forces. If there is a fight, with Chinese civilians on the ground, Japan can only lose its moral ground to China, if even just one Chinese civilian were injured, let alone killed. Japan is doomed to lose the fight over Dioayudao as long as it has forces stationed on it. Does not matter if the Taiwanese land tomorrow or a week from tomorrow. The structure of the conflict is such that whoever is on the island will lose.
So, why not take it over now?
Fear of the unknown and lack of confidence in one's own ability to foresee counter-moves by the enemy, yes, and understandable. But, if the unknown is the only fear, the solution is simply to have more courage. Take Diaoyudao now, and see how easy it is to defeat the Japanese who are sitting ducks waiting to be captured by citizens' arrests and brought to Taiwan or China for sentencing. They are doomed if they fight, and they are doomed if they don't fight. This is the easiest win in military history, and all it needs is courage to do it. In this game, where the real forces are amassed outside of the theater of war, he who fires the first bullet loses. Japan cannot fire any bullets without losing the war and the island.
The key is to use civilians, and use them in large numbers, like using water to wash away dirt.