Author: abramicus

China and Japan Have No Choice But to Fight   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2012-11-5 05:35:37 |Display all floors
DOES CHINA WANT TO FIGHT A TACTICAL WAR AT SEA GIVEN HER TACTICAL DISADVANTAGES, OR WOULD CHINA WISH INSTEAD TO FIGHT A STRATEGIC WAR IN WHICH SHE IS ASSURED AT MINIMUM OF PARITY UNDER THE DOCTRINE OF "MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION"?

In the last analysis, China's defense of her sovereign territory will have to backed by her nuclear forces.  And in the last analysis, China's policy of "No First Use" of her nuclear weapons will have to be pre-empted by any defense of her territory that requires more than a token tactical force to achieve.

This is like the use of a gun.  If only a few fellows in town possess a gun, it would be good policy for everyone to adopt a NO FIRST USE, unless someone is using it already.  But, if, taking advantage of this peaceful policy, a local thief uses a knife to rob and kill, backed by another fellow with a big shotgun behind him.  What are the rest to do?  NO FIRST USE, until after they are stabbed, until after they have lost an arm or leg to the Japanese katana?  China can hear Japan sharpening its samurai sword loud and clear lasting up to nearly two weeks at a time.  

Would it not be appropriate to prevent a greater war to first warn Japan that any military action against Chinese citizens on Diaoyudao will be considered an attack on all of China and will be defended by EVERY means at China's military disposal without exception?

Japan thinks it will be able to drag China into a purely conventional war over Diaoyudao and thereby reduce the size of the Chinese navy substantially over just a small island group, leaving the rest of Chinese maritime territory indefensible, at which time, the Vietnamese and Philippine forces can do the mopping up operation.  This is their BEST scenario.  But what if China sees the ruse and threatens to go ALL OUT ON DIAOYU DAO?  

It might sound like an empty threat, but if forced to choose between losing Diaoyudao and having its navy largely decimated, or winning Diaoyudao and keeping its navy relatively intact, China may not find it hard to throw in the kitchen sink.

At that point, Japan will be faced with backing off Diaoyudao and using this defeat as a reason to demand the scrapping of its peace constitution, the arming of Japan with nuclear weapons, the restoration of the Meiji imperial militarist government, with the view to eventually pushing the US out of Japan when Japan is a nuclear power.  And this might not be unacceptable to Uncle Sam, except that it might be unacceptable to China, as Japan had already mass murdered some 35 million of its people from 1937 to 1945.  This rearming of Japan on the pretext of its loss of Diaoyudao, a part of China to begin with, does not stand up to reason.  How can a thug imply he needs a bazooka simply because he could not rob his neighbor of his backyard?  But the logic of brigandism would approve of such a move.  In which case, China might have to intervene on the basis of the Potsdam Proclamation of 1945 that any move of Japan back to its military government would automatically trigger the final phase of WWII, which would then lead obviously to WWIII.  The Neo-Nazi's probably have bunkers to keep their "elite race" away from harm, so the sooner the world ends for them, the sooner they can emerge as the new masters of the planet.  Thus, this is not unthinkable.  It is not even improbable.  It is the default course of events as when Hitler tore up the Treaty of Versailles and went on the path of militarization, but who knew then, it would lead to another world war?  Churchill said, and Ambassador Liu Xiaoming pointed out in his FT article, "attitude makes a big difference."  In the case of WWII, it did.  And if the world looks askance at Japan's attempt to remilitarize as harmless, it will again.

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Post time 2012-11-5 05:38:53 |Display all floors

RE: China and Japan Have No Choice But to Fight

Japan is fielding some 30,000+ troops in the coming joint military exercise on November 6th.  Quite a show of force that would be hard even for China to match.  That's coming about as close to slapping China on the face as military exercises go.  What a massive show of power.

What do you think would be the strength of the PLA?
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Post time 2012-11-5 06:13:48 |Display all floors
China does not have the ships to even do this kind of a military exercise, unless it wants to send it the whole PLAN for an exercise like this.

Japan is dragging China into a conventional war at sea where it has the greatest advantage over China.

China will have to convert this into a strategic war between countries, rather over territories, in order to keep the Japanese out of Dioayudao.  Of course, such an action would require a follow through in that if Japan reacts by scrapping its peace constitution and remilitarized or nuclearizes, China would be forced to carry out the Potsdam Proclamation of 1945, or lose WWII, in effect.  Liu Xiaoming is right that while worshipping war criminals by Japanese politicians is serious, invading China's sovereign territory such as Diaoyudao is dangerous, in every sense of the word, because we are talking about a return to the FINAL PHASE OF WORLD WAR II.

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Post time 2012-11-6 06:57:31 |Display all floors

RE: China and Japan Have No Choice But to Fight

This post was edited by sansukong at 2012-11-6 07:10
abramicus Post time: 2012-11-5 05:13
China does not have the ships to even do this kind of a military exercise, unless it wants to send i ...
Liu Xiaoming is right that while worshipping war criminals by Japanese politicians is serious, invading China's sovereign territory such as Diaoyudao is dangerous, in every sense of the word, because we are talking about a return to the FINAL PHASE OF WORLD WAR II.

In short,  according to the above statement, WW2 has never ended, if China allows Japan to occupy the Dioayu Islands! That be the case, the Chinese leaders are guilty of negligence in not building up of a Navy capable to defend its sovereignity and its people.
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Post time 2012-11-6 07:10:11 |Display all floors

RE: China and Japan Have No Choice But to Fight

This post was edited by sansukong at 2012-11-7 09:11
abramicus Post time: 2012-11-5 04:35
DOES CHINA WANT TO FIGHT A TACTICAL WAR AT SEA GIVEN HER TACTICAL DISADVANTAGES, OR WOULD CHINA WISH ...
In the last analysis, China's defense of her sovereign territory will have to backed by her nuclear forces.  And in the last analysis, China's policy of "No First Use" of her nuclear weapons will have to be pre-empted by any defense of her territory that requires more than a token tactical force to achieve.

This can only come from a "person" who is either over confident or plain stupid! It is like two gunmen facing each other in a shoot-out; with one been quoted to say: "I shall not be the one to open fire first!".

P/s: Gary Cooper would never have said that!
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Post time 2012-11-6 11:00:17 |Display all floors
sansukong Post time: 2012-11-5 04:38
What do you think would be the strength of the PLA?
DOES CHINA WANT TO FIGHT A TACTICAL WAR AT SEA GIVEN HER TACTICAL DISADVANTAGES, OR WOULD CHINA WISH INSTEAD TO FIGHT A STRATEGIC WAR IN WHICH SHE IS ASSURED AT MINIMUM OF PARITY UNDER THE DOCTRINE OF "MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION"?

If ever China is to engage in a war with Japan over the Dioaju Islands, it is not an option of whether China not wanting to be engaged in a tactical war or prefers to fight in a strategic war .... it is a war ... a necessary war that China must fight in, whether tactical or strategic, and to win!
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Post time 2012-11-6 11:17:07 |Display all floors
Wrong.  In war, you always choose between alternatives.  There is no one fixed way to fight a war.  The invasion by Japan of Diaoyudao is, in reality, a strategic war against China by Japan and its allies.  Who cares about Diaoyudao's fish or supposed oil and gas that could be found in greater abundance elsewhere in the Eastern Sea?  Japan, by doing military exercises aimed at the so-called "retaking of an island", is actually practicing STRATEGIC DECEPTION on China, to make China believe that it must then defend Diaoyudao, by first taking it, which is not hard to do.  Of course, Japan in effect would be falling into a STRATEGIC DOUBLECROSS because after it wins a tactical war retaking Diaoyudao from China, it will be left fighting a STRATEGIC WAR AGAINST CHINA wherein Japan will serve as nothing more than nuclear fodder, and is sure to disappear from the planet, even if China might be severely crippled by it, which is the REAL STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE.

So, how can an intelligent person like you fail to see the STRATEGIC DECEPTION of Japan egging China to a tactical war over Diaoyudao, if you are truly being friendly to China?

Need I go further to reveal your true agenda?

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