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sansukong Post time: 2012-11-4 09:04
Japan shall be entering a war which is completely different from WW2. For a start, China is a very ...
JAPAN WANTS CHINA TO THINK IT IS AT WAR WITH SENKAKU'S JAPANESE FORCES RATHER THAN WITH JAPAN ITSELF
Wishful war-mongerers in Japan want their people to believe that war with China over "Senkaku" (Diaoyudao) is a local affair, like a Sunday picnic to Diaoyu Gardens, and China has so far been playing along, speaking only of defending Diaoyudao, rather than of going to war with Japan. But things are going to expand pretty quickly after the first casualties are caused by the Japanese SDF. With the kind of naval, air and marine forces that the Japanese Maritime SDF can muster at this time, there is NO DOUBT that any Chinese force trying to secure and defend Diaoyudao will be badly mauled if not massacred. And that is not due to any fault of the Chinese forces. The islands are simply too easy to take over. This is why nobody wants to be the one defending the island, IF THE ENEMY WILL RETURN TO INVADE IT.
Japan has to have a token force on the island, which some pictures seem to indicate. Strange that neither side has been willing to publish them. It seems impossible for Japan to have its coast guard vessels so close to Diaoyudao as to respond to every "intrusion" by China's maritime surveillance ships if Japan has no marina on Diaoyu island. Like the "other side of the moon", the deployed marina and ships of the Japanese Coast Guard on Diaoyu survives the scrutiny of every news cycle, 24/7, 365 days of the year. The fact that the public never sees it does not mean it does not exist.
And so, it that force threatening enough to China? Not really. China could easily squash it any time it chooses. But occupying Diaoyudao, while symbolically important in proving China's jurisdiction AND sovereignty is not physically sustainable in the face of the power and might of the Japanese SDF and the Seventh Fleet combined. This point, everyone should agree on. The first thing to understand is that the island basically has no perimeter of maritime or air defense. And any such defense can be penetrated easily, if set up. The second thing to understand is that it is eminently invadable by air or by sea. The third thing to understand is that it lacks sufficient drinking water and food to sustain any force stationed on it and can be brought down by seige if not by direct assault. So, who wants to be on Dien Bien Phu?
The Japanese are waiting every day for the sword of Damocles to fall on its forces stationed on Diaoyu island. Thieves are always worried that the cops will come and arrest them. Here, the thieves are themselves the hostages they are holding on Diaoyudao. China wishes to extract these hostages from the thieves, but they are one and the same. In short, Japan is using them as a human shield against Chinese defending forces now within earshot of the Japanese forces on the island.
Seige will not work if the Japanese can be supplied by air and by ships that China dare not shoot down or sink. Because, that will involve the entire Japanese and Allied military forces coming to retake Diaoyudao. And that is not hard to do.
What China needs is a method to extract the Japanese stragglers on the island without bloodshed. And that actually can be done by landing civilians in such huge numbers that they can arrest them by hand, literally. Unfortunately, the Japanese thugs on the island will most likely hurt, wound or kill some of the Chinese civilians, and therefore these Japanese thugs would have to be brought back to China for sentencing. And, very likely too, they would be hurt by the civilians landing on Diaoyu if they attacked these Chinese civilians, and thus, the whole affair would end up in a big mess. But landing Chinese marines on Diaoyudao would turn it into a military conflict overnight. Thus, no civilians and no military means perpetual marine surveillance patrols.
But, there is yet another solution that is less asymmetrically unfavorable to China, since China does not have one foot on Diaoyudao so far. And that is for China to land and secure one part of the main Diaoyudao island, or one of the other smaller islands. Securing part of the main island has its symbolic value in saying that Japan does not have effective jurisdiction over Diaoyudao. Securing a smaller island does the same, with less impact. But securing either remains a problem. This will be almost like creating a 38th parallel on an island, or between the islands. And, being so highly defended, either side can easily get hurt by any mistakes.
In the end, the problem is really strategic, not tactical. It is not the forces of the Japanese Coast Guard on Diaoyudao who are the problem, but the Japanese SDF and its entire arsenal that is the problem. Once the problem is defined as such by China, then China will have to think about the implications of a broader war, one that can turn into WWIII, for example, with casualties by the tens of millions for both sides. Taken to the extreme, the casualty can be in the billions around the world. Is this island worth all the sacrifices? Is there another way to take back what belongs to China?
In the end, the solution is going to be a simple as it is profound. China will take back Diaoyudao by landing a regular force on it, raise its flag, and threaten with nuclear war any invading force attacking it. And that will be the end of it.