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This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-10-20 12:42|
Headlines Say that the Japan-US Joint Naval Exercise of November 5th Has Been Cancelled . . . Why?
Supposedly, it was because both countries were afraid of provoking China into war, after witnessing China's recently concluded one-day military exercise in the East Sea, employing 11 ships, 8 helicopters, and a thousand sailors. The subject matter of the exercise was how to use naval warships to interdict Japanese coast guard vessels that ram Chinese marine surveillance vessels, and how to save a fisherman thrown into the sea by the ramming of his boat by Japanese vessels. None of these apparently involved use of missiles or cannons, and the show of strength was not as great as Japan's recently concluded parade of 30 warships, including a US carrier, just five days ago, also in the East Sea, near Okinawa. So, how is it that Japan is now afraid of provoking China, when in fact the November 5th exercise was intended precisely to publicly provoke China?
The purpose of the game was to provoke and intimidate at the same time, and the expected response from the poor victim of such psychological manipulation is supposed to be a cathartic surrender (of Diaoyu to Japan). Has not Japan been doing that to all its neighbors for the past one hundred and fifty years? Are not cowboys doing that day in and day out to wild horses and bulls? Or, the Spanish matador to the bull selected for slaughter?
The real reason for the change of heart cannot be the limited firepower demonstrated by China's recent naval exercise in the East Sea. Not that it was not impressive. But that it was way below the firepower exhibited by Japan and allies just five days ago.
Probably, and the public will only know later on, a key Japanese ally in the Chinese heirarchy has been removed or isolated, and therefore, there is nobody in all of the wide, wide China to submit China's Second Treaty of Shimonoseki to Imperial Japan. This is a more likely development, because China has been actively restructuring its leadership in preparation for the 18th Congress slated for November 9, 2012. When there is nobody to surrender China to Japan, Japan will have a big fight ahead if it wants to secure victory. Asking the rest of the 1.3 billion people of China to surrender can take a very, very long time.