Author: abramicus

无耻的结局   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2012-10-17 17:49:03 |Display all floors
sansukong Post time: 2012-10-13 12:43
Will history be repeating itself for the 1.3 billion Chinese in China?

No way.
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Post time 2012-10-17 17:51:49 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2012-10-15 08:22
CORRUPTION PLAYED THE BIGGEST ROLE IN CHINA'S LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY

Very true, and many of them were  ...
oreign dealings - Prevention of corruption = Honest deals.

Without the preventative aspect, there is no way to guarantee deals are being made in good faith for the good of the country.
{:soso_e181:} That is very true said.
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Post time 2012-10-17 18:10:16 |Display all floors

RE: 无耻的结局

greatlady Post time: 2012-10-17 16:49
No way.
No way.
My friend, with all my heart, I hope you are right and I am wrong for the sake of the 1.3 billion Chinese in China!!!
FIRST NATIONS ( LAKOTA PEOPLE ) Heartbreaking - (Google Search for video) "to stay true to who you are. Never allow anyone make you different or think different about what it is you are created to be ...

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Post time 2012-10-17 18:22:08 |Display all floors
sansukong Post time: 2012-10-17 18:10
My friend, with all my heart, I hope you are right and I am wrong for the sake of the 1.3 billion  ...

Dear friend,

We won the war with Japanese in the history, do you think today's China is weak than before ?

No worry at all , if we have to fight again as the history, we won't be hesitate to do so.

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Post time 2012-10-17 19:08:21 |Display all floors
greatlady Post time: 2012-10-17 17:22
Dear friend,

We won the war with Japanese in the history, do you think today's China is weak than ...
We won the war with Japanese in the history, do you think today's China is weak than before ?
Let's hope China can win this coming potential war too! If the people in China have victory in their hearts and minds, it is hard to lose! Good luck.   {:soso_e183:}
FIRST NATIONS ( LAKOTA PEOPLE ) Heartbreaking - (Google Search for video) "to stay true to who you are. Never allow anyone make you different or think different about what it is you are created to be ...

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Post time 2012-10-18 09:48:24 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-10-18 19:26

A WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER JAPAN'S INVASION OF CHINA'S SOVEREIGN TERRITORY IS INEVITABLE.  THERE IS NO PEACEFUL SOLUTION EXCEPT SURRENDER.  THERE IS NO MILITARY SOLUTION EXCEPT VICTORY.

Since surrender is not an option and certainly is not a necessity for China, then victory by military means is the only option for China.

How to win in a military showdown with Japan is not self-evident, but nevertheless can be deduced from facts and sheer logic.

Factors that affect chances of victory (and defeat):

1.  Size or scope of the battlefield.  The larger population and larger land mass of China favors China when the battlefield is also large, in fact, preferably as large as, if not larger than, the size of entire Japan.  The logic is self-evident.  Let A be the size of China's manpower, land and resources, and B be the size of Japan's.  Let X be the size of the conflict in terms of manpower, land and resources utilized to decide victory or defeat.  To China, the proportion of her capacity for war used to achieve decision in war is X/A, and to Japan, it is X/B.  As X increases and approaches B, Japan's capacity to continue to fight decreases to 1 - X/B, and approaches zero, 0, when X approaches B.  This was what happened in WWII.  On the other hand, as X approaches B, China's remaining capacity to continue to wage war on Japan merely approaches 1 - B/A, and since B is smaller than A, this value remains positive to the very end, and China therefore wins.  Therefore, to ensure victory over Japan, the larger X is, the faster Japan gets defeated.

If, on the other hand, X remains a small fraction of B, as would be the case if all future skirmishes with Japan were confined to Diaoyudao and its vicinity, then it will take a very long time for a decision on who wins or loses to be achieved.

The ratio of China's remaining capacity to fight over Japan's capacity to fight at any time is equal to  (1 - X/A)/(1 - X/B), which we can call Ratio of Win Capacity or RWC.

Thus RWC = B/A *(A-X)/(B-X)

This model suggests that the advantage to China increases hyperbolically as X approaches B,  and that it is to China's advantage to expand the scope and size of the fight, with the fighting getting easier and easier as the size of the fight expands to involve the entire Imperial Japanese wehrmacht.
  
Under the assumption of this model that China must win a military conflict with Japan in order to preserve her sovereignty over Diaoyudao, a large scale strategic war will logically achieve this goal with the least cost and the least delay, and thus, more Japanese provocations with show of strength will only push China to adopt this strategic option.

However, out of humanitarian reasons, strategic weapons should not be used unless the mainland is itself threatened.  But, if Japan tries to drag NATO into the fight, the Chinese mainland will be threatened, and China will have to adopt a strategic defense, which will lead to the collapse of Japan with exponential speed.  This model is quite similar to the Truman solution as to how to best defeat Japan on its own territory as the war came to its closing chapter.  By keeping the war short, Truman actually saved both sides from millions of casualties, although he was unfairly criticized by the Neo-Nazi's for causing any death at all, which was a tiny fraction of the deaths caused by the Japanese empire, and the combined casualty of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was less than what Japan inflicted on just one city, Nanking, at the beginning of the China's resistance to Japanese invasion in 1937.  Japan should therefore be persuaded of the futility of its attempt drag NATO to support its illegal invasion and occupation of China on Diaoyudao, which is going to end like WWII did.  Japan needs an accelerated Tripartite Intervention to prevent its grab of Diaoyu, just as it tried to grab the Liaoning peninsula in 1895, and France and Germany should simply tell Japan to get out of Chinese Diaoyu, now.  More so that the present Japanese government is deeply linked to its Nazi Fascist past as can be seen in its repeated worshipping of WWII Fascist War Criminals by its heads of government, and highest ranking officials in the Diet.  Would NATO support a Nazi Party in Germany?  Why then should it do so in Japan?

The NATO allies of Japan should inform Japan that they will not enter into any war with China on Diaoyudao to avoid this unwanted scenario for everybody, and above all, for Japan's own good, more so that Japan is now being led by rightwing War Criminal Worshipping neo-Nazi fanatics, who just two days ago, went en masse (including an ex-PM and head of the opposition party, plus dozens of parliamentarians and two sitting cabinet members of the current ruling party) to their National Shinto Shrine to worship 14 Class A War Criminals' spirits for inspiration and guidance as to how to conduct their reckless and roguish militarist adventurism all over again.  France is smart to realize that NATO itself is being threatened by Japanese Nazi-Fascism on the march in Diaoyu and Dokdo, and is shouting from the sidelines for a stop to this madness.   It is time for the rest of the world to chime in to stop Fascism from Rising Again in Japan, before it is too late.

If Japan can be convinced by plain logic that its attempt to resurrect its Fascist ambtions is doomed to a disastrous ending, then war may be averted.

(to be continued)




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Post time 2012-10-18 10:50:53 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-10-18 19:30
abramicus Post time: 2012-10-18 09:48
A WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER JAPAN'S INVASION OF CHINA'S SOVEREIGN TERRITORY IS INEVITABLE.  T ...

Factors that affect the chances of victory (and defeat):  (continued)

2.  Persistence of effort.  This is self-evident as real events do not naturally approach a certain value on its own, even if the net potential energy tends toward negativity, due to friction and heat.  Persistence of effort requires energy, both physical and mental.  Again this favors China which has a larger population and therefore it takes longer to dissipate its momentum unless there is a major source of friction internally or externally, compared to Japan.  A boulder rolling down a hill will travel farther if it is more massive or heavier than another boulder.  These can be quantitatively modeled, but what is the point?  China is definitely larger than Japan in population, in the uniformity of its people's anger at Japan's past atrocities, and in the persistence of such feelings due to Japan's own lack of repentance for more than half a century after its massacre of 35 million innocent Chinese men, women and children from 1931 to 1945.  On the other hand, what has China done to Japan to inspire such determination to fight China?  Nothing.  Japan has to continually manufacture some reason to frighten its people and agitate them to hate China.  It needs to pour in some Shintoist belief in the righteousness of its imperial dictates to justify the massacre of innocent Chinese civilians, for no real reason other than Japan's insatiable avarice for other people's land and resources.  China will persist much, much longer than Japan in this fight, once started, and see it to its ultimate conclusion even five generations down the road.

3.  The availability of an alternate bargain:  In all these theoretical speculations, there is always the hope that each side can reach for a switch to turn off all the hostilities and get back to normal business with each other.  And there is one such switch that is again within the plain sight of reason.  And that is, how much has each side already paid up in its struggle against the other, which becomes its bottom price for agreement to a ceasefire, and how much more much it has to spend in order to achieve victory if there is no agreed upon ceasefire.  For Diaoyu, at present, that cost is still very small compared to the GDP of both countries.  If by resuming normal business relations, Japan can save itself a further loss equal to this average, then Japan should grab the opportunity and give back Diaoyudao to China.  It is getting off the hook with a great bargain!  On the other hand, if Japan forces China to commit 60% to 90% of its military resources to retaking Diaoyu, which forces Japan to spend an even greater proportion of its resources to defending its forces on Diaoyu, then neither side may be able to afford to walk away from the conflict at that stage, as the "Dividends of Peace" may no longer cover the "Costs of War".

And so, it is wise and prudent for Japan to now pick up its tent and leave Diaoyu before the costs of war escalate to a sum, that could be several times its annual GDP, that cannot be covered by any stretch of imagination from the "Dividends of Peace" were it to then withdraw.  

Now is the time for Japan to call it quits, fold its hand, and shake China's hand, saying, "You won this round of the poker game."  Learning how to play and how to fold is the mark of a great player.  Foolishly betting and doubling one's bet in the hope of breaking the bank is the mark of an amateur and born loser.  In this game, China is the bank, and Japan is the high roller.  And the bank will always win if Japan cannot walk away from the table.  The time to do it is now.  Fold your hand, and enjoy the rewards of normal trade relations with China, with a lot left over, above and beyond the nominal values of Diaoyu and Japan's costs of its occupation.  Keep raising the stakes and face the ultimate Gambler's Ruin that will make the collapse of Baring Brothers look like a picnic.  There is a time to play, and a time to quit.



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