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This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-10-18 19:26|
A WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN OVER JAPAN'S INVASION OF CHINA'S SOVEREIGN TERRITORY IS INEVITABLE. THERE IS NO PEACEFUL SOLUTION EXCEPT SURRENDER. THERE IS NO MILITARY SOLUTION EXCEPT VICTORY.
Since surrender is not an option and certainly is not a necessity for China, then victory by military means is the only option for China.
How to win in a military showdown with Japan is not self-evident, but nevertheless can be deduced from facts and sheer logic.
Factors that affect chances of victory (and defeat):
1. Size or scope of the battlefield. The larger population and larger land mass of China favors China when the battlefield is also large, in fact, preferably as large as, if not larger than, the size of entire Japan. The logic is self-evident. Let A be the size of China's manpower, land and resources, and B be the size of Japan's. Let X be the size of the conflict in terms of manpower, land and resources utilized to decide victory or defeat. To China, the proportion of her capacity for war used to achieve decision in war is X/A, and to Japan, it is X/B. As X increases and approaches B, Japan's capacity to continue to fight decreases to 1 - X/B, and approaches zero, 0, when X approaches B. This was what happened in WWII. On the other hand, as X approaches B, China's remaining capacity to continue to wage war on Japan merely approaches 1 - B/A, and since B is smaller than A, this value remains positive to the very end, and China therefore wins. Therefore, to ensure victory over Japan, the larger X is, the faster Japan gets defeated.
If, on the other hand, X remains a small fraction of B, as would be the case if all future skirmishes with Japan were confined to Diaoyudao and its vicinity, then it will take a very long time for a decision on who wins or loses to be achieved.
The ratio of China's remaining capacity to fight over Japan's capacity to fight at any time is equal to (1 - X/A)/(1 - X/B), which we can call Ratio of Win Capacity or RWC.
Thus RWC = B/A *(A-X)/(B-X)
This model suggests that the advantage to China increases hyperbolically as X approaches B, and that it is to China's advantage to expand the scope and size of the fight, with the fighting getting easier and easier as the size of the fight expands to involve the entire Imperial Japanese wehrmacht.
Under the assumption of this model that China must win a military conflict with Japan in order to preserve her sovereignty over Diaoyudao, a large scale strategic war will logically achieve this goal with the least cost and the least delay, and thus, more Japanese provocations with show of strength will only push China to adopt this strategic option.
However, out of humanitarian reasons, strategic weapons should not be used unless the mainland is itself threatened. But, if Japan tries to drag NATO into the fight, the Chinese mainland will be threatened, and China will have to adopt a strategic defense, which will lead to the collapse of Japan with exponential speed. This model is quite similar to the Truman solution as to how to best defeat Japan on its own territory as the war came to its closing chapter. By keeping the war short, Truman actually saved both sides from millions of casualties, although he was unfairly criticized by the Neo-Nazi's for causing any death at all, which was a tiny fraction of the deaths caused by the Japanese empire, and the combined casualty of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was less than what Japan inflicted on just one city, Nanking, at the beginning of the China's resistance to Japanese invasion in 1937. Japan should therefore be persuaded of the futility of its attempt drag NATO to support its illegal invasion and occupation of China on Diaoyudao, which is going to end like WWII did. Japan needs an accelerated Tripartite Intervention to prevent its grab of Diaoyu, just as it tried to grab the Liaoning peninsula in 1895, and France and Germany should simply tell Japan to get out of Chinese Diaoyu, now. More so that the present Japanese government is deeply linked to its Nazi Fascist past as can be seen in its repeated worshipping of WWII Fascist War Criminals by its heads of government, and highest ranking officials in the Diet. Would NATO support a Nazi Party in Germany? Why then should it do so in Japan?
The NATO allies of Japan should inform Japan that they will not enter into any war with China on Diaoyudao to avoid this unwanted scenario for everybody, and above all, for Japan's own good, more so that Japan is now being led by rightwing War Criminal Worshipping neo-Nazi fanatics, who just two days ago, went en masse (including an ex-PM and head of the opposition party, plus dozens of parliamentarians and two sitting cabinet members of the current ruling party) to their National Shinto Shrine to worship 14 Class A War Criminals' spirits for inspiration and guidance as to how to conduct their reckless and roguish militarist adventurism all over again. France is smart to realize that NATO itself is being threatened by Japanese Nazi-Fascism on the march in Diaoyu and Dokdo, and is shouting from the sidelines for a stop to this madness. It is time for the rest of the world to chime in to stop Fascism from Rising Again in Japan, before it is too late.
If Japan can be convinced by plain logic that its attempt to resurrect its Fascist ambtions is doomed to a disastrous ending, then war may be averted.
(to be continued)