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This post was edited by Vanadinite at 2012-6-28 04:56|
The Galton Report
The Decline of the West
In 1918 the German historian and philosopher Oswald Spengler (1880 -1936) published The Decline of the West (Der Untergang des Abendlandes), in which he advanced a cyclical theory of the rise and fall of civilizations, and predicted that the West had about a century or two to run before decline set in. Hitherto, Spengler’s prediction has not been realized. The West retains the economic, cultural, and militarily world leadership that it possessed in 1918.
Nevertheless, there are ominous signs that Spengler will be proved right. The US Census Bureau estimates that whites will become a minority of the population in the United States about the year 2042, and in two recent columns (February and April, 2011) I summarized the work of Oxford University demographer David Coleman, estimating that whites will become a minority of the population throughout Western Europe in the second half of the present century. He calls this “the third demographic transition,” consisting of the replacement of the European peoples in their own homelands by non-Europeans.
There are different views as to whether this matters. Many of those on the Left, such as Bill Clinton and the late Edward Kennedy, have welcomed and promoted this demographic transformation, claiming that “diversity is our strength.” Most of those on the Right deplore it. The essential difference between these two positions is that those on the Left believe non-Europeans are exactly the same as Europeans, except for skin color. Brothers Under the Skin is the title of a book by leftist British geneticist Professor Steve Jones.
For most of those on the Right, this is a profound misconception. The races are very different not only in skin color but also under the skin, and therefore the third demographic transition will have grave consequences. Professor Coleman notes that according to Harvard sociologist Professor Robert Putnam “the expansion of diversity through immigration can magnify social division, require the reinvention of national identity, erode trust, and risk turning a society of notionally equal citizens into a corporate state of communities with group rights ... . [E]thnic diversity may erode the necessary solidarity and trust on which coexistence depends. Ethnic imbalances between the recipients and paymasters of services, it is claimed, weaken public support for universal welfare, diverting attention to narrower group interests.”
Professor Coleman adds that the growth of the non-European population “could conjure up the unlooked-for problem for the majority of its adjustment to minority status, hitherto unimaginable. Much depends on the groups that account for the diversity. The influence of Islam concerns many in the secular societies of Europe, who fear the intrusion of strongly held religious views into the public realm, especially if Islam is a stronger identity than citizenship.”
The immigration of Muslims is certainly a problem. Significant numbers of them harbor a deep hatred of the Western countries in which they live, and seek to damage them through terrorism. In Britain, a recent study by the think tank Policy Exchange reported that among British-born Muslims aged 16 to 24, 37 percent would like to see the introduction of sharia law, and 36 percent think Muslims who convert to another faith should be executed. These beliefs are profoundly alien to Western values. There are estimated to be some 1.5 million Muslims in Spain, 2.9 million in Britain, and 5 million in France, and the numbers are growing rapidly because of their large families and continued immigration. The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life predicts that their numbers will approximately double over the next 20 years throughout Western Europe.
The increasing number of Hispanics in the United States also presents problems. They do not have the crusading zeal of Muslims to impose their religion and culture on Western societies, but many of them do not assimilate in the same way as previous immigrants. They insist on retaining their Spanish language and culture, and some campaign for a transfer of the southwestern American states to Mexico.
The increasing number of blacks in the United States and Western Europe presents a different kind of problem arising from their high crime rates which, in the United States and Britain, are approximately seven times those of whites. Much of this crime is directed against other blacks, but blacks also mug and rape whites. Virtually all cities in the United States and Britain have black ghettos that whites enter at their peril.
Another consequence of the increasing number of non-Europeans — except for the northeast Asians (Chinese, Japanese and Koreans) — will be lower average national IQs. For the United States, it is possible to estimate the magnitude of this decline. Compared to a white average IQ of 100, the Hispanic average is 89, the black average is 85, and Asians have an average IQ of 98 (based on an average of 104 for Northeast Asians and 92 for Southeast Asians, whose numbers are approximately equal).
From these figures we can calculate that in 1960, when whites were 88 per cent of the population and blacks were 12 percent, the American IQ was 98.2. The Census Bureau predicts that in 2050 whites will fall to 45 per cent of the population, Hispanics will be 30 percent, blacks will be 15 percent, and Asians will be 9 percent. Using these figures, the American IQ will have declined to 92.4. This is the same IQ as in the Balkans (Greece, Bulgaria and Romania), lower than Uruguay (96), and not much higher than Turkey (90), according to figures given by Profs. Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen.
We can make a similar calculation for Britain. In 1950, when virtually the entire population was white, the average British IQ was 100. In the year 2056, according to Prof Coleman’s calculations, whites will be 56 per cent of the population, South Asians (IQ 93) will be 26 percent, blacks (IQ 86) will be 6 percent, and others (IQ 96) will be 12 percent. The British IQ will therefore have declined to 96.8. Professor Coleman estimates that in the second half of the century, the numbers of non-Europeans will continue to increase and that the indigenous British will become an increasingly smaller percentage. This will bring about a further decline in IQ, and similar declines will take place throughout Western Europe.
These projections assume that the immigration of non-Europeans into Western nations will continue. Will it? There are certainly movements in the United States and Europe to restrict immigration. However, in the United States they have not had any significant impact. In Europe, “far right” parties campaigning for an end to immigration typically secure about 5 to 10 per cent approval ratings, and have some electoral success in France, Britain, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Austria. In France, support for the Front National, now led by Jean Marie Le Pen’s daughter Marine, is running at around 20 percent. But despite the rising tide of public opposition to immigration, the political and practical problems of halting or even reducing it are so formidable that it is doubtful whether any significant reduction is likely to be achieved.
The most probable scenario is that Prof. Coleman’s third demographic transition will proceed, and that during the present century non-Europeans will become majorities of the populations in the United States, Britain, and much of Western Europe. This does not bode well for the relative position of the West, which has been based on high IQ.
Nevertheless, all is not gloom and doom. The scenarios for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Eastern Europe are more encouraging. There is immigration to Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, but most of the immigrants are Chinese and South Asians. The Chinese are the model minority, while the South Asians are not a serious problem. Eastern Europe, including Russia, has negligible immigration, and as these countries become fully functioning market economies they will grow in economic, cultural, and military strength.