Author: desperado123

A disaster ahead as warning signs piling up in China?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-12-17 19:11:59 |Display all floors
lebeast Post time: 2011-12-17 11:51
the two big issues for us are/were credit availability and government intervention

government int ...

Definitely, in the debacle just visited upon us by the US housing market ..........

I should have said 'traditionally' where you could only borrow against assessed income which was set as 2.5 - 3 times income  ............
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Post time 2011-12-17 19:12:58 |Display all floors
lebeast Post time: 2011-12-17 11:57
and the income to median house price ratio was historically 3.5-4:1, and this is designated "afforda ...

Cool ........

Out of interest have you got the ratios for;

London

New York

And Tokyo .......

That would be interesting .......

Ta
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Post time 2011-12-17 20:25:12 |Display all floors
expatter Post time: 2011-12-17 20:12
Cool ........

Out of interest have you got the ratios for;

For Tokyo it's 18,96 - This was the figure as of end 2010.

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Post time 2011-12-17 20:37:52 |Display all floors
satsu_jin Post time: 2011-12-17 20:25
For Tokyo it's 18,96 - This was the figure as of end 2010.

Thanks Satsu ........

And LeBeast .......

So would I be correct in assuming that Beijing even at 15:1 is not overvalued for a modern metropolis ...... ?

And of course can one assume that the index for wages would be lower in China due to the massive disparity across the country for incomes  ....... ?

Therefore the 15:1 could represent a figure on the high side  ........ ?

I am not looking for a debate. I am just curious that is all .........

Thanks  .......
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Post time 2011-12-18 00:04:40 |Display all floors
To assess this issue properly, we first need to define what "having bigger woes" means and what the term "China" refers to.

If we talk about the financial woes of governments, it is easily appearant that the EU governments currently face much bigger problems than the Chinese government. I mean, the Chinese government is not democratically elected and doesn't have to worry about media reporting bad things, so it can actually do whatever it want - like printing money, increasing government spending and so on. Thus, any concerns that the Chinese government could go bankrupt are groundless.

If we talk about companies, however, we have a diffrent picture. Chinese privatly owned companies barely get any credits and if they do, they have to pay horrendous interest rates. Western companies, however, have so much liquidity that they don't really know where to invest and get credits easily from banks. So Western companies are much better off than Chinese ones.

If we talk about the life of people, things get even trickier. Currently, there is quite high unemployment in the EU and the US, but those who work earn a lot - and worry about losing their jobs. In general, western people still have much higher incomes than Chinese people and can afford much more things. But they are worrying about losing their jobs or having a lower salary, so that they are facing preassure at work. Chinese people, on the other hand, are much poorer and earn a fraction of western people's income - but their salary grows at least nominally (considering the inflation, it also decreases in real terms) and they don't have to worry about losing their jobs.

But what could governments do to improve the situation?
Western governments have to apply strict spending caps so that investors trust them again and give them money. This will cause western people to feel safer, make them spend more and therefore give western companies opportunities to invest and Chinese companies enough work to make money.

The Chinese government should forbid local governments to get money in any other ways than taxes and order them to take all their debts from the MOF. In addition, it should sell all sate-owned companies so that Chinese banks give credit to those who invest it well, not to those who have guanxi. Like this, China would become much more innovative - and ultimately as rich as western nations. Then Chinese people will earn more, spend more and companies arround the world will invest and produce more - a win-win-win situation.

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Post time 2011-12-18 03:41:18 |Display all floors
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Post time 2011-12-18 03:44:50 |Display all floors
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