Author: desperado123

A disaster ahead as warning signs piling up in China?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-12-16 17:01:35 |Display all floors
lebeast Post time: 2011-12-16 16:30
and if China's realestate boom ends, then China does not need so much iron ore and coking coal (our  ...

you see the point here. but China is too big and large, so it's possible to adapt itself to the new situation. Don't worry too much. the real estate indeed is a big underlying threat. Now the government is trying to hold it down.

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Post time 2011-12-16 17:19:57 |Display all floors
So long as can our country control the CCB and has the authority to issue RMB, there wont't be much worse than US and Europe.
I think money is just a tool for our economy to run smoothly. If neccessary, we can appreciate and depreciate our currency to offset the bad effects. Certainly, nobody wants to see that.
I hope our country can overcome everything and bring a better life to its people.

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Post time 2011-12-16 18:13:37 |Display all floors
WSJ, yeah Murdoch's mouthpiece is always right. The evidence can be seen since 2008.

In the short term China will face some tough times but the PMI at 49(??) is not that alarming. The inflation is under control (which was the government's top priority). Do you consider FDI as hot money? So far only American FDI has fallen or USD were recalled. FDI from SE Asia, Korea and in particular Japan increased considerably. Even ailing Europe (Euro Zone) did still contribute in November.

My guess, in 2012 China will continue to grow, not at a rate of >9% but at a still comfortable rate of between 8% to 9%. The nightmare for some foreign countries will continue because they have not much to show for. Is China at a turning point? In quality of life - maybe but certainly not  when it comes to economic development. Will she perform like Japan twenty years ago? No, there is no master who can command her to do what she does not want to do. Also, the economic - and fiscal environment is not comparable.  

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Post time 2011-12-16 20:51:54 |Display all floors
:  

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Post time 2011-12-16 21:29:43 |Display all floors
all based on debt fiat, sad to say

(beast ex machina)

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Post time 2011-12-16 21:30:36 |Display all floors
hope China can make a miracle
(beast ex machina)

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Post time 2011-12-17 00:51:22 |Display all floors
lebeast Post time: 2011-12-16 14:30
China is well overdue.

Personally, I hope China cn find a way through, as the government of my coun ...

Interesting comment ..........

Real estate meltdown normally happens when credit is high and just about anyone credit worthy is a player. The prices go up and that leads to the lowest on the rung unable to enter the market.

The result I believe is stagnation and falling prices to meet the market  ........

China is quite different in that the major cities are undervalued when compared against other major cities and people here still have cash and are not reliant on credit as much as the West ........

The slowdown here is because borrowers and speculators cannot get in so easily as they could before .......

Why did the government slow down the housing market ........ ?

Not because it is not there, but rather fear of the reaction to the house to income ratio which might cause dissention ........

This could never happen in the West because they call it market forces  ........

Go and try to buy a property in London and then blame it on government policy .......

They would regard you as nuts  ........

Because it is the market  ......

Not the politics  ...........

What the world needs is more geniuses with humility, there are so few of us left  -   Oscar Levant

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