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Reply #4 antitheft's post
Those examples you gave of the US winning the war but lossing the peace are accurate. the US has never been particularly good at winning the peace. I will say this though, you cannot measure the US ability to win, or lose, against China by those examples alone. They are different types of war entirely. Any conflict between the US, God forbid, and China will not be as cut and dried as many think and China's wonder weapons will not be the cure all for China being victorious. What will be most important, in the end won't even be boots on the ground because the US cannot match the sheer number of Chinese. What'll matter most is the following;|
1/ Production, the ability to build replacement weapons.
2/ Logistics; the ability to supply the combatant forces with all the war material(s) they need....food, gas, ammo etc etc.
3/ Civilian support. I think that this will be unequivocable in China but the US? Not so sure!
4/ Technology. Dumb weapons are good, but smart ones are more cost effective in terms of results and effects!
5/ Distance/Terrain. Where the battle(s) will be fought is of great importance. At sea, the odds favour the US greatly but no so, on land although US firepower usually makes up for any ground force inequality. In the air, the US will win as well because of superior technology and sheer numbers of aircraft available with said technology. Distance is important too. The US has an immense supply network throughout the world but this is it's weakness in any naval warfare in Asia. It can supply it's vessels, aircraft and troops anywhere in the world, and in large numbers but, if this line and network is interdicted by China, the whole system falls down.
My thoughts are that the US will interdict China's C4I systems and POL supply firts using either cruise missiles from the SSGNs of using stealth aircraft to simply bomb them. If they can do that, China won't be able to venture far from the shores of the mainland which means the war is China's front yard. This gives China an advantage of home ground and a massive and patriotic population, and also a disadvantage because it's back is literally, to the wall. The US airpower will then be the defining feature of the confl;ict and with the degradation of China POL, manufacture, supply and actual combat will be severly degraded to such a point aht China may not be able to even offer a single combat aircraft to attempt to counter what will be, a massive onslaught of US combat aircraft.
These are just some thoughts and one scenario. It's by no means complete and is very simplistic, but plausible. I truly hope, that no war breaks out for China, the US or anybody.