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China’s population would shrink to less than 0.145 billion by 2100 if ... [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-8-3 10:55:11 |Display all floors
How China might look if the one-child policy were strictly enforced

SINCE 1979 China has undertaken a bold demographic experiment to reduce its population growth, placing a limit on the number of children many couples can have: one. The government claims the policy has shrunk the number of births by around 400m. The "one-child policy" is not, however, as simple as it sounds. The restrictions are enforced more strictly in the cities than elsewhere, with exemptions for minority ethnic groups and some rural families. A strict one-child policy, applied without exceptions countrywide, would have made an even bigger dent in China's population. To show this, The Economist has estimated the impact of a hypothetical one-child policy imposed without exceptions, on everyone, everywhere in China. The results are compared with the UN Population Division's central scenario for the country, which reflects the existing one-child policy. If each woman had been allowed only one child since 1980, China's population would have been 340m smaller than it was in 2010. If a strict one-child limit were in force for the rest of this century China's population would shrink to less than 145m by 2100, 800m fewer than the UN projects in its central scenario. By then China would have 1.2 pensioners per worker, although it would also have relatively few children to look after: just one for every 9.2 workers.
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Post time 2011-8-3 11:12:23 |Display all floors
source:
Aug 2nd 2011, 13:57 by The Economist online

http://www.economist.com/blogs/d ... as-one-child-policy
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Post time 2011-8-3 11:59:13 |Display all floors

ha ha That's so TRUE!

But, given the " know-how " of the Ancient " Confucian Bureaucrats ", the expected the situation of China.......

..............and must have adjusted. My suspicion is "China's population is larger than the census". This could be "non counting" or "non registration" of females child - and explains the relative ease to hire "female migrant workers" in China.

Ask any Chinese, "Is there shortage of females in their province" and you'll get an incredillous laugh!
"Zen Silence" meant "people don't tell the tyrant authority" when they have a female child, and clan link officials helps in the cover up. Chinese people loves the children.

If China ate as much grain as their PRODUCTION RECORDS indicates, they should have a lot of very OBESE people!

BUT seriously, by year 2010, we have 50% urban population, CHINA CANNOT HAVE SUCH RULE ANYMORE!

ha ha ha

Cheerios!

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Post time 2011-8-3 16:18:21 |Display all floors
then our environment would suffer less

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