Author: 468259058

Electricty shortage around China, Why? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-5-16 10:45:33 |Display all floors

Reply #14 468259058's post

It might even catch on in the community

I am such a favorite showpiece

The clever Chinese are so curious

Yes, it could very well happen

It will be Chinese manufacturing and technology, but demonstrated
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Post time 2011-5-16 13:37:42 |Display all floors

Reply #6 468259058's post

It's common to have CAPACITY:UTILIZATION rate of <60%

This is due to PEAK/LOW daily use cycle.
There is also SEASONAL PEAK/LOW annual cycle.

ha ha ha

I can only use LAYMAN language, don't want to get confused with "statistical systems" and "theoritical mathematical calculations"!

ha ha ha

To solve the shortage of electricity - we need to have a match of KINETIC STORE power (20% hydro), INFLEXIBLE thermal plants, and more FLEXIBLE combined cycle, nuclear plants (76% capacity) and the GREEN capacity (2%).

the problem is the manufacturing cycle - which peaks in April, and next peaks in November every year.
there is also problem of "electric heating" needs in north and west China from months November to February every year.

ha ha ha

In the dry season in China - November to May - Kinetic power store might be short, while Manufacturing electric needs high!

cheerios!

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Post time 2011-5-16 13:39:36 |Display all floors

Reply #11 468259058's post

I think Grids has LOAD level problems, and DISTRIBUTION network issues!
The southern network grid might not be able to supply to the eastern network grid, for example

cheerios!

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Post time 2011-5-17 08:17:19 |Display all floors
One news paper said, "during the 11 month before 2010, the profit of grid of state has increased to 1828%." and "the grid of state has gotten 65% of the operating revenue"

After customer paid 100 yuan for electricity,
electricity production factories would get 62 yuan,
government would get 6 yuan,
the loss of electricity transportion cost 4 yuan,
the grid of state company would get 28 yuan.

So the grid of state company only get 28% of the total operating revenue.

And rate of return on common stockholders' equity, ROE/Profit Margin on Net Assets in only 4.5%.
The grid of state company had suffered loss, the extra cost: 50 Billion yuan between August 2008 and November 2009 owing to the internal financial crisis. Until November 2009, the company began to make profits after the price of electricity had raised.

In 2010, the income from main operation of grid of state company was about 26 billion yuan, Return on Total Assets Ratio is only 3.6%, far below the averaged the whole industry Ratio.

+++++++++++++
the above opinion is from a government official in associate of electricity industry.
Grid of state is the only one company responsible for electricity circulation, or distribution networks,  in China.
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Post time 2011-5-17 08:28:35 |Display all floors
The price of electricity sold by electricity production factories and
the price of electricity sold by grid of state
Are totally decided by Central government of China.

So grid of state company don't have the factors to make huge profits.

Said one chief engineer of grid of state company.

+++++++
Grid of state company have a monopoly. The running cost of grid of state company is not under supervision from other departments of Central government. How can we trust these data released by themselves?  

Said the chief information manager of the website of "energy of China"  

h ttp://news.163.com/11/0517/03/747Q00TM00014AED.html
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Post time 2011-5-17 08:42:42 |Display all floors

Frank Holmes: China is Powered by Coal, But it Can’t Get Enough

Originally posted by 468259058 at 2011-5-13 11:23
Electricty shortage around China, Why?

Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Chongqing, Guizhou, Shannxi,... More than half of China announced either the shortage of electricty supply or th ...


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International coal prices hit $124 per ton this week, the highest levels in five months, as strong demand from reconstruction projects in Japan and reduced supply from flood-ravaged Australia has made coal supply tight. The floods in Queensland, Australia cut the country’s output of coal by 15 percent and other big coal producers such as Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia are experiencing similar production cuts due to floods of their own. At the end of March 31, coal prices were 33 percent higher than a year ago and earlier this month, mining giant Xstrata inked a one-year deal with a Japanese utility at $130 per ton, effectively setting a floor under coal prices in the near-term. That’s up from $98 per ton the company made in a similar deal a year ago. Perhaps no country is more affected by this development than China. With its economy powering ahead with 9.7 percent annual GDP growth during the first quarter, Chinese electricity use was up 13.4 percent on a year-over-year basis over the same time period, according to China’s National Energy Association (NEA). China’s overall electricity consumption is now expected to rise 12 percent this year, up from the 9 percent growth the NEA forecasted in January. China’s Electricity Council said the country may face power shortages of 30 million kilowatts during the summer so the government has moved quickly to put restrictions in place as the peak season approaches. Big industrial provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang are already scaling back power consumption. These reductions are likely to hinder aluminum, cement, zinc and steel output, according to Macquarie Commodities Research. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) called a meeting this week of domestic coal suppliers such as Shenhua Energy and China Coal Energy to ensure stable supplies, the China Daily said. Coal powers the Chinese economy. The country is the world’s largest consumer, gobbling up nearly half of the world’s coal consumption in 2009. Coal accounted for 71 percent of China’s energy in 2008-more than three times the United States’ share. The Electricity Council estimates that the country’s coal demand will reach 1.92 billion tons in 2011, up nearly 10 percent from 2010. China hasn’t always been such a glutton for coal. In fact, coal consumption actually declined from 1996 to 2000. However, consumption has shot up 180 percent since then and China accounted for 80 percent of demand growth between 1990 and 2010, according to BP. This is because demand for electricity exploded over that time. China’s rapid urbanization and rising middle class has led to an exponential number of new refrigerators, air conditioners and other appliances in homes. Despite the rise in incomes and increased consumer demand, China’s electric power consumption remains relatively low. You can see from the chart on the right that the U.S. consumes roughly four times the amount of electricity per capita than China. The world’s second-largest economy even trails Greece, Poland and Hungary. Luckily for China, it sits atop the third-largest amount of recoverable coalreserves in the world behind the U.S. and Russia. The country ramped up its coal production from 645.9 million tons of oil equivalent in 1999 to 1,552.9 million tons in 2009. Despite this increase, production couldn’t keep up and the country became a net importer of coal in 2009. Production jumped over 15 percent during 2010 but the country was still forced to increase coal imports by 42 percent in order to meet demand, according to the China Daily. There are two types of coal. Thermal coal is burned in furnaces to create electricity and metallurgical coal, also called coking coal, is used to create concrete and steel. China’s coal reserves are light on the latter, which has required China to rely on countries such as Australia, Indonesia and Russia for supply. These imports are playing a vital role in China’s infrastructure boom. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Australia’s total exports to Asia, which also includes Japan and India, will increase 64 percent to 394 million tons by 2035. This accounts for 94 percent of Australia’s total exports. Coal exports from Indonesia, Asia’s second-largest source of coal, are expected to rise 26 percent over the same time period, according to the EIA. In 2009, China signed a 25-year, $6 billion loan-for-coal agreement with Russia that will supply the country with 15-20 million tons of coal. The Chinese government made it clear that it wants to wean the country’s power grid from coal. That’s proven to be a difficult task. China’s 12th Five Year Plan calls for big improvements in energy efficiency and the development of additional sources including natural gas. Massive projects such as the Three Gorges Dam have sought to increase capacity of alternatives, but hydroelectric, nuclear and other renewables combined make up only 10 percent of total power. In addition, low water levels due to a drought in Southern China have reduced current hydroelectric capacity. The ongoing disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan has delayed but not squashed China’s nuclear ambitions. The country has plans to build more than two dozen plants by 2020, accounting for 40 percent of new nuclear facilities around the globe. Only time will tell if the effort will be successful. The EIA forecasts that China’s power generation from coal will increase by 2035 but will only account for 62 percent of total power generation at that time. However, the EIA says that absolute coal consumption will nearly double as the economy continues to grow and electricity demand remains strong. With coal’s short- and long-term status atop China’s energy mix intact, we think some domestic coal producers stand to benefit. To participate, we’ve taken positions in several coal producers including Shenhua Energy and Yanzhou Coal which we believe offer tremendous potential for the China Region Fund (USCOX). Frank Holmes is CEO and Chief Investment Officer of US Global Investors (www.us funds.com). Michael Ding and Xian Liang, analysts for the China Region Fund (USCOX), contributed to this commentary.



Date of Publication:  3 May 2011.


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Key  =  encrpr10.zip
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Post time 2011-5-17 08:49:53 |Display all floors

Power Shortage in East China Power Grid

Originally posted by 468259058 at 2011-5-13 11:23
Electricty shortage around China, Why?

Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Chongqing, Guizhou, Shannxi,... More than half of China announced either the shortage of electricty supply or th ...

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Power Shortage in East China Power Grid Expected to Reach More than 10 Gigawatts This Summer


Researched by Industrial Info Resources China (Beijing, China)--The power shortage in East China Power Grid, which is one of the six largest power grids in China and covers Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Fujian provinces, might become the most serious shortage since 2004. It's expected that the maximum power demand for East China Power Grid over the summer will be about 190 gigawatts (GW), an increase of 14.9% from the same period last year, and the maximum power shortage in the grid is expected to reach 11.66 GW in the peak hours, according to the 2022 Working Conference of East China Power Grid on Safety Production and Planning, which was held in Huangshan on April 13.



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Key  =  encrpr10.zip
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