Author: 468259058

What have contributed to China's present hyperinflation? How much? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-4-28 12:03:33 |Display all floors

To status_jin

ahhahahahaa.
Did you have lost all credibility with your choice of the data from the black market, not from official data for exchange rate?
....
Inflation measured by CPI...Yes..It is a low inflation according to official data..had rosen to 4~5 times in 2009 since 1980.

CPI had rosen to 50~100 times in 2009 since 1980 from the data released by Chinese news paper, released by part of Chinese government officials, released by some of Chinese economists.

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Post time 2011-4-28 12:04:53 |Display all floors
Can we call this 50~100 times by a hyper inflation compare with the official data: 4~5 times?

hehehehee..

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Post time 2011-4-28 12:06:19 |Display all floors
Originally posted by 468259058 at 2011-4-28 13:04
Can we call this 50~100 times by a hyper inflation compare with the official data: 4~5 times?

hehehehee..


Look blue, I'm not arguing with you any longer. It leads nowhere.

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Post time 2011-4-28 12:10:28 |Display all floors
What's hyper inflation:

Definitions used vary from one provided by the International Accounting Standards Board, which describes it as "a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100%

It was hyperinflation measured by the prices of houses from 2003. The price doubled nearly every 3 years.

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Post time 2011-5-1 09:54:18 |Display all floors
What have contributed to China's inflation? How much?

List of reasons

1. During the past 20 years: (Money supply)
Chinese government have printed 40 times of the paper money of 1990.
American government printed 3 times of the paper money of 1990.


2. The price of crude oil and other raw materials were rising after more paper money were printed against less growth rate of raw materials production.
The rising prices of raw materials would definitely contribute to the rising prices of end products.
exchange rates: Chinese yuan had apprecated measured by U.S dollar in 2010, but had deppreciated Australian dollar. The price of imported iron ore had risen 35% during 2010.

3. The Fee and Taxes collected by government was rising.
In the latest news reports, truckers protested in Shanghai, farmers in Jinan, Shandong, hung by himself. Many analysis conclude that soring government Fee was one of the major causes.

At last these costs would raise the cost of end products too.

4. The rampant corruption went worse and widespread.
For exmaple the housing market, So many government officials around China in charge of this market were reaveled with severe corruption.

10 years ago, a bribe of 10,000 did work, but now at least 1,000,000 does work.
In China, Many property developers listed the under table bribe involving with the government officials as a special heavy housing cost.

5. high growth of consumption and low growth of product supply?
Actually, high growth of production and low growth of consumption was and is considered as a problem in China according to NBS.

6. more chemical products were used in Food?
e.g. Last year in China, 9.7 tons of antibiotic was used in raising pigs and chicken. But one entrepreneur said that the costs would be raised about 10%~15% if they don't use the chemical products.

7 Foreign exchange reserves (nearly RMB 20 trillion Chinese yuan)

8 stimulus investment by government (RMB 27.8 trillion Chinese yuan in 2010)



Is there anything else should be counted, be weighed too?

How many percentage each factor?
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Post time 2011-5-1 23:44:28 |Display all floors
There is certainly no hyperinflation in China - you can still buy your dinner if you get paid at lunch time :)
However, inflation became a problem and prices are growing far too fast.

As an economist, I also see one important reason for this - and this reason has been stated before:

Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply.


In order to keep on growing, Chinese government printed trillions of yuan during the crisis - the inflation that China is experiencing now is the payback. But I can understand the government: if they would have let China slip into a recession, its real estate bubble and its other asset bubbles would have bursted immediately, causing the nation's economy to collapse. This would have probably caused a new famine, hundret thousands of people would have died and the government would not be in power anymore.
The best thing China could do now is to internationalize its market risks (like all western economies do) - if the real estate bubble collapses, the whole world would have to pay then, rather than just China. This would of course lead to a recession in many countries around the world - but in the end of the day, only a few people would lose their job and nobody would lose too much - those who'd pay most would be those who have enough anyway.
But that's my opinion and no scientifically proven fact.

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Post time 2011-5-2 20:31:32 |Display all floors
its real estate bubble and its other asset bubbles would have bursted immediately, causing the nation's economy to collapse.
\++++++++++++++
That is to say,
These bubbles are so danger.
Why has China produced these bubbles? What don't China go in a heathy way?
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