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Boring is ignoring the effects of PPP. By the CIA's own calculations (goodle CIA FACTBOOK CHINA), the 2007 GDP of China was $6.99 Trillion, about 50% of the $13.84 T of the U.S.of A. |
How long does it take to make it on par? Assume an average of 10% for China (probably low) and 2.5% for America (probably high), a differential of 7.5%. By the rule of 72's, it will take about 10 years. So 2018 is not out of the question at all.
Some would argue that you cannot buy foreign things with PPP. Touche. First, there are few (and fewer by the day, even in high tech areas) that China needs to import other than raw materials. Second, there is NOTHING in the book that says China must be using the US$ forever. Once the RMB is used as currency of trade, it can be just as good a fiat currency as the greenback.
As an aside, WHAT do you think the effect would be if the US$ is no longer the premier currency of trade, if oil and gas are indeed traded also in Euros, Rubles and such, and what that is going to do both the value of the US$, or the American "growth" rate?
We do not live in a unipolar world anymore, no matter now hard some folks would screw up their eyes and wish and wish.