Author: vorgal78

China as the no.1 [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2008-8-22 14:07:05 |Display all floors

The real world?

From "voterigger":
In fact, if Tong Lu Ren is your real name, and you do live in San Fran - all your anti-West and anti-US drivel might just backfire oneday if somebody decides to take the action to the real world ...


Seems like voterigging isn't the only thing you cretins are good at.
What type of action are you suggesting? Cement shoes?
Your threats (whether from yourself or on the behalf of others) have about as much impact as G.W.(W for Wimp?) Bush's promise to assist Georgia.

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2008-8-22 14:16:16 |Display all floors
It is a problem that we are no longer discussing China's abilities as a world leader but are instead talking about other countries inabilities. Maybe concrentrate on the topic. We were doing well initially.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2008-8-22 16:59:01 |Display all floors
Originally posted by vorgal78 at 2008-8-21 14:33
I understand pride. Pride in one's country, in their people, in their beliefs. It can lead to a great community effort and the achievemnt of wonderful things.

Unfortunately pride can also lead t ...


I would say that,  within 10 years China will be a rich industrialized country on the same level as say,   South Korea.

Within 10 years,    China will probably have 3 or 4 times the GDP,   the economy of the United States of America.

By 2020,   I would say that China would probably represent nearly half of the world's entire industrial production,   and half of the world's entire GDP.

Undoubtedly,   China would then be 3 or 4 times more powerful economically,   and militarily than the United States,   because it would only be a matter of ramping up industrial production to build more tanks,  planes and warships.

Whether or not China will also be 3 or 4 times more powerful than the United States politically and culturally is anyone's guess.

It would all depend on how China manages its rapid rise to the number one position in the world,   being 3 or 4 times more powerful than the United States.

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Post time 2008-8-22 17:07:29 |Display all floors
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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-8-23 01:53:33 |Display all floors
In 2018 US GDP (OER), assuming long run growth trends from GDP data 1800 to 2007, will be ~$19.6 trillion. In order for China to equal that GDP figure, it must grow at a rate of 19.7% per year. In order for it to be fourfold that figure, it must grow at a rate of ~37.5% per year.
"Justice prevails... evil justice."

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-8-23 02:36:38 |Display all floors

PPP

Boring is ignoring the effects of PPP.  By the CIA's own calculations (goodle CIA FACTBOOK CHINA), the 2007 GDP of China was $6.99 Trillion, about 50% of the $13.84 T of the U.S.of A.  

How long does it take to make it on par?  Assume an average of 10% for China (probably low) and 2.5% for America (probably high), a differential of 7.5%.  By the rule of 72's, it will take about 10 years.  So 2018 is not out of the question at all.  

Some would argue that you cannot buy foreign things with PPP.  Touche.  First, there are few (and fewer by the day, even in high tech areas) that China needs to import other than raw materials.  Second, there is NOTHING in the book that says China must be using the US$ forever.   Once the RMB is used as currency of trade, it can be just as good a fiat currency as the greenback.  

As an aside, WHAT do you think the effect would be if the US$ is no longer the premier currency of trade, if oil and gas are indeed traded also in Euros, Rubles and such, and what that is going to do both the value of the US$, or the American "growth" rate?  

We do not live in a unipolar world anymore, no matter now hard some folks would screw up their eyes and wish and wish.

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Post time 2008-8-23 02:38:27 |Display all floors
Tong arrives and the ads say "RANK CALL"

CD has a sense of humour

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