Author: voice_cd

BOC: China's economic growth to slow down in 2008 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2008-1-15 18:02:38 |Display all floors

More Could Be Done on Low Cost Housing

Guangdong just announced a RMB 1 Billion program for low cost housing.  

That number should be 1,000 times higher across the nation.  At a development cost of about 1,500 RMB per sq. m., that's good for 600 million sq. m. of new urban housing.  Say at flat sizes of 30 sq. m. at the low end, that's good for 20 million units per year.

If planned right (say modeled after the Hong Kong low rent housing estates), with upper units for low rent residential, and bottom floors for commercial development, these projects can create new jobs and new urban development to absorb excess labor from the rural areas.   Upper floor rental units can be planned architecturally to be easily converted in later years for sale - e.g., combining two or more units into bigger units, etc.  As the residents become richer (they will), they can afford to buy, just like those in Hong Kong.  

Once the pump is primed, these types of projects can fund themselves over decades, greatly accelerating China's urbanization efforts.

[ Last edited by tongluren at 2008-1-15 06:03 PM ]

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Post time 2008-1-15 18:37:21 |Display all floors
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Roach Exterminator

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Post time 2008-1-15 21:41:49 |Display all floors
The government cannot control housing costs unless the government is the one doing the building. The government sells the land, but it is the developers and the speculators - and they are often the same - that are building complexes and then keeping them empty so that demand is greater than "available" supply so that the price offered and asked gets higher everyday.

You can't one day say that you want the government to allow the market to control prices and then on the next day you want the government to control prices! Not fair.

I would like to see the government make speculation illegal, but since most developers are in collusion with each other, they would just blackmail the government and stop building, simple as that. Some of the policies of the Shenzhen government - such as requiring each sale to show a legal documented change of ownership and setting a time limit on when developers have to begin selling units in their complexes - have been sort of useful, but only in a minor way

I think the only effective way for the government to deal with the housing problem is what they are trying to do - build more government-controlled complexes - but that opens a whole new can of worms because then the government becomes a landlord and that leads to conflict of interest. Low-cost housing is needed, but too many people feel they shouldn't have to live in low-cost housing because they see it as a loss of face if anyone finds out they need to live in low-cost housing.

There will, of course, come a time when the market is so saturated that the speculators will have to lower their prices but that is years down the road. Perhaps the best bet is to just be a renter - or buy an old place and fix it up - a very common practice in places like Canada and the States for couples just starting out.

Not everybody can live in a villa in a gated community beside a man-made lake with tennis courts and a golf course - even though we would all like to...and that is also why the developers and speculators make so much money, because the market is so hot for such places.

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Post time 2008-1-15 21:44:57 |Display all floors

Reply #17 canchin's post

But there is another way - although not liked by many.

Get out of the bigger cities. For example, even today, what you would pay for a relatively decent apartment in Beijing or Shenzhen - forget Shanghai - you could buy an apartment, a car and start a business if you were to go someplace else like Kunming say, or another city in the inland areas.

That always has been a major focus of the government anyway - to try and get movement from the over-heated "developed" areas to other parts of the nation so as to stimulate the economies in those other areas...but instead, young people don't seem to want to take what they see as a "risk" and move to one of those other areas.

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Post time 2008-1-15 22:43:47 |Display all floors
i think our country's economy is too hot..it is time to slow down,pay more attention to our environment protection

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Post time 2008-1-16 00:59:33 |Display all floors
Canchin,

The major issue is that the government has not turned enough attention towards developing infrastructure inland. This  means that Modern China has is perhaps the most densely populated region of the world; with more Chinese trying to move there every day, of course the price goes up. If the government would take the necessary steps, Modern China could be expanded to include all that available land in the interior, reducing price pressures.
"Justice prevails... evil justice."

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Post time 2008-1-16 02:41:19 |Display all floors

Most Densely Populated?

Over 70% of Chinese population live in rural areas.

In contrast, over 80% of Americans live in cities in high densities.

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