- Registration time
- Last login
- Online time
- 22 Hour
- Reading permission
Originally posted by admchengho at 2007-4-16 00:41
China can achieve a $70 trillion economy only when it is "fully developed". Do you think the Old Country would be fully developed by 2050?
Hardcore pro-China faction may believe it. Th ...
Yes China is an old country but that prediction is like 43 years away, so i dont see why china cannot achieve that figure . And i believe that figure is worked out using an average growth rate of 8.7 % annually, sounds like a reasonable number to me since China is still a developing country, just take south korea as an example, it is already a developed country but its economy shows no sign of stopping. And I would like to point out something, i believe the Chinese economy is well beyong any economic law because in the early 90s, Chinese economy was growing at an unprecidented speed of 13-14% a year and until the late 90s many experts predict that China economy cannot sustain such a high rate and it will slow down to 6% annually, but we all see what is happening right now, the economy still manage to sustain such a high rate and it is even accelerating. And compare today's living standard of China, it is higher than in the 90s, so ppl would expect the investors to withraw from China because of the rising labour cost, but it is not the case here, FDI is showing no signs of exhaustion. I believe that in the 90s, China attracted investments because of Cheap labour cost but in 2000 and onward, I believe that
investment is still comming to China because of her growing technology sector, higher consumption of the ppl due to higher standard of living. Just look at America, it is the world's largest economy and it is still growing at 2.5% every year and its GDP per capita is already very high. And even if China does achieve that $70 trillions economy in 2050, her GDP per capita will just be half of that of today's developed country (or america) , therefore I strongly believe that even at $70 trillions, her economy will carry on growing because at that time her labour cost is still gonna be cheaper than that of western developed countries.