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By 2050, China is projected to be at $70.71 trillion economy. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2007-4-14 07:23:01 |Display all floors
By 2050, China is projected to be at $70.71 trillion economy.  That is 45% higher.....WOW        In 2005 the report stated China would be a $48.57 trillion economy.

The BRIC nations as a group will be bigger than the G7 in 2032, eight years ahead of 2040 as projected in the first report that came out in 2003, said Goldman Sachs in its latest report.

China is expected to surpass the US GDP in 2027, again eight years ahed of the original projection of 2035. "By 2050, China is projected to be at $70.71 trillion economy, 84 per cent bigger than the US economy of $38.514 trillion.

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/070409/32/6ec6t.html

[ Last edited by whiteeclipse at 2007-4-14 02:09 PM ]

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Post time 2007-4-15 12:12:53 |Display all floors
International precedent indicates that the growth of GDP per capita from $2000 to $3000 dollars will be faster than that from $1000 to $2000. It took Japan six years to make the former leap and just three years to make the latter. It took China three years to grow its GDP per capita from $1000 to $2000.

http://english.people.com.cn/200704/11/eng20070411_365622.html

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Post time 2007-4-16 00:41:48 |Display all floors
China can achieve a $70 trillion economy only when it is "fully developed". Do you think the Old Country would be fully developed by 2050?

Hardcore pro-China faction may believe it. There's one eccentric economist projected such a potential for quite some time already.

I don't.

To me, China is a very big country. It is full of problems. At most, it'll reach around $50 trillion then stop. It depends on how well China could establish a stable political environment to carry on growing.
xurfnet.blogspot.com

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Post time 2007-4-16 08:06:05 |Display all floors
when one generation finishes its work, the next takes over;  each target and each achievement will be elevated to even greater height by the succeeding generation.

what is important are:

- continuous improvement
- creativity and innovation
- precision and aesthetics
- drive for excellence
- education and research
- stability and connectivity

As important as numerical targets to achieve is how to transform the human capital of China;  there is no other country in the world which has so much potential concentrated in so short a period of time where all factors of growth, development and modernization have come together to raise such a large mass of people up.  There has to be something really special and innovative which can be designed to make this human capital increase in value even more.

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Post time 2007-4-16 13:35:50 |Display all floors

Reply #3 admchengho's post

That probably in RMB!

ha ha ha


Green Dragon

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Post time 2007-4-16 14:23:17 |Display all floors

...But Rmb could be valued at US$1 = Rmb3 in 2050!

......or something like that.


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Post time 2007-4-28 07:00:32 |Display all floors
Originally posted by admchengho at 2007-4-16 00:41
China can achieve a $70 trillion economy only when it is "fully developed". Do you think the Old Country would be fully developed by 2050?

Hardcore pro-China faction may believe it. Th ...



Yes China is an old country but that prediction is like 43 years away, so i dont see why china cannot achieve that figure . And i believe that figure is worked out using an average growth rate of 8.7 % annually, sounds like a reasonable number to me since China is still a developing country, just take south korea as an example, it is already a developed country but its economy shows no sign of stopping. And I would like to point out something, i believe the Chinese economy is well beyong any economic law because in the early 90s, Chinese economy was growing at an unprecidented speed of 13-14% a year and until the late 90s many experts predict that China economy cannot sustain such a high rate and it will slow down to 6% annually, but we all see what is happening right now, the economy still manage to sustain such a high rate and it is even accelerating. And compare today's living standard of China, it is higher than in the 90s, so ppl would expect the investors to withraw from China because of the rising labour cost, but it is not the case here, FDI is showing no signs of exhaustion. I believe that in the 90s, China attracted investments because of Cheap labour cost but in 2000 and onward, I believe that
investment is still comming to China because of her growing technology sector, higher consumption of the ppl due to higher standard of living. Just look at America, it is the world's largest economy and it is still growing at 2.5% every year and its GDP per capita is already very high. And even if China does achieve that $70 trillions economy in 2050, her GDP per capita will just be half of that of today's developed country (or america) , therefore I strongly believe that even at $70 trillions, her economy will carry on growing because at that time her labour cost is still gonna be cheaper than that of western developed countries.

Thank you

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