Author: chinito

India Struggles to Catch China [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-8-14 07:56:42 |Display all floors
Those are minor issues. Competition within and overseas will push indian society for improvement. Competitioin with China, Pakistan, who is growig fast too, and others worldwide will transform many aspects of Indian society. The middle class is growing who can afford cars and cozy apartments.

I believe that the biggest recipient of Japan's Official Development Assistance is India today.

We are not scared by the Indian growth because she is a democracy. India is there to strengthen our side, unlike China whose growth could potentially undermine the current global system.

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Post time 2006-8-14 12:16:49 |Display all floors

Reply #15 soudenjapan's post

Hey buddy!

You don't seem to understand that India is a "bomb waiting to blow up"...ha ha ha
It has a 20% moslem population....
another 300 million in Bangladesh and Pakistan...which is still at "state of war"..with each other. They have a festering Kashmir insurgency....a Assam insurgency....a Nepal guerilla war....a Tamil Tiger war in Sri Lanka....

Not much trade is possible between its neighbouring state....
If you look at "other nation" as example..some 40% to 60% of trade is between immidiate neighbours! How you supposed India could develop with 50% of its trade not there?

So, Japan, USA will be the Surrogate market.....
how much will Japan and USA spare the market to India?
USA, Japan imports around 10% of its GNP.....or US$1.5 trillion.....only around US$900 billion is non-resource base..

how about sparing around 30% for India?
Textiles could be a good start....it's worth around US$150 billion...
TV, radio receivers, audio player, computer...it's worth another US$300 billion..
and toys, assembly, tit bits.....another US$300 billion...
maybe car parts, machine parts, medicine....another US$150 billion.

now...textiles..USA is a big buyer of cotton products.....
India is a big producer of cotton....

If USA buys from India, india will expand its cotton crop..suitable cash crop in DRY DRY INDIA.....and who would buy Amerikan cotton.....Hmmmm......okay let's wipe out US$80 billion from that.....and then how you "pacify Taiwan, Korea, Malaya, Thailand, Vietnam, Phillipines" to keep US$ reserves without Amerikan imports...okay..give away another US$60 billion to those country...

okay we can spare US$10 billion to India!
good...

Then we need to sell those electronics...
wow..India has high tax regime....
...it is good in software but not much of a domestic market for electronics...
....maybe Japan will relocate electronics company to India...
...Matshu----a, Sony, Hitachi, etc. as well as Seagate, Maxtor, IBM, GE, Whirlpool...
...but WAR ZONE.....
...and high taxes.....
...poor financial state, deficit trade...how to buy raw materials....

Hmmmmm

lack of entrepreuneral spirit in India....
design and production....
uncomfortable cities.....
hard to encourage buyers to visit.....

low income....those last category of trade not so easy to start.....


Green Dragon
Titan friend.

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Post time 2006-8-14 13:38:03 |Display all floors
When you try to select sololy negative aspects of a society that could potentially undermine economic development, you could describe even Japan and the U.S. as the least favorable places for economic progress.

If you look at only positive aspects, you could probably depict rosy scenarios for development of African nations.

The fact is India is growing fast.
India has special talents that any other country can emulate easily, especially in fields like medicine, engineering, and IT and software development.
Their skills may not be No.1 in the world, but they have "only one" type of strength. No other poeple can provide the kind of services India can provide the world.

Besides, foreign capitals are looking for places to migrate from China for safty. Investors are scared of the China bomb to burst. Dubious statistics, very limited transparancy, nobody really knows what's going on in China. Investors need India.

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Post time 2006-8-14 14:01:10 |Display all floors

Reply #17 soudenjapan's post

There is NO JAPANESE KARAOKE BAR in INdia!

How can we invest?

ha ha ha

Green Dragon
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Post time 2006-8-14 18:47:23 |Display all floors
That is exactly my point, you know.

It will change. Indian society will embrace Karaoke sooner or later. It will be part of their culure, and they will be insisting that Karaoke is an Indian invention.

[ Last edited by soudenjapan at 2006-8-14 06:48 PM ]

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Post time 2006-8-14 20:37:11 |Display all floors
i truly believe india will play second fiddle to china for a long time to come.
the american media will readily paint rosy picture for india because they know
india economy is not a threat to usa while that of china is a speeding train soon to rival or even surpass usa economy.
just look at those indian cities, are they anywhere near shanghai,beijing and other chinese cities in term of progress.

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Post time 2006-8-15 12:28:05 |Display all floors

Reply #19 soudenjapan's post

Without that "Karaoke bar"...
No Sane Japanese would want to go there!!!

ha ha ha

Changing culture is not easy....

Green Dragon
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