Author: flyingroc

When will China's economy be the No.1 in the world? [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-17 10:28:57 |Display all floors

hanlei

markwu you hua suo.

These are not the only reasons for confidence in China's continued growth to become the world's biggest economy:

1.  As at end of August this year, foreign investors have pumped in USD600 Billion into China;

2.  There are over 530,000 foreign companies in China, including 90% of the world's top multinationals;
      their rationale is simple: '"if my competitors are in and i am not, i will be finished."

3.  For 12 years in a row, China has been the world's top FDI destination; last year alone, China plus
     HKSAR attracted over USD143 Billion that had flowed into Asia;

4.  Profit of many multinationals have risen 7-fold since 1990 and China remains indisputably one of their
     best overseas profit centres, in fact, the linchpin to their entire international corporate growth strategy;

5.  Realising that the world economy is an integrated animal, China has also started to invest overseas,
     ramping  up by 93%, putting in fresh capital into companies and businesses in the west and developing
     economies from Latin American countries to SEAsia, reflecting Mr Zheng Bijian's observation that
     'Beijing remains committed to a peaceful rise".

6.  China's foreign trade is expected to hit USD1.3 Trillion this year with a surplus of USD 100 Billion, or
     thrice last year's record;

7.  She has quietly accumulated the world's largest foreign reserves, at USD 838 Billion;

8.  China is uniquely homogeneous in her unalloyable loyalty to national sovereignty, history and culture
     while heterogeneous as a single country with 34 different markets and 99 different peoples;

9.  The entire population of 1.3-1.5 Billion is embracing Mr Deng's gaige kaifeng:

      b]Development is the absolute principle.

10.Over the last 20 years, China's GDP growth rate averaged at least 9% p.a., a figure which would have
     been higher if we exclude the drag-down effects of the hinterland provinces, which are just emerging;

11.Consumer spending in China has surged 64% in the last 6 years, while inflation hovers only at 2.8%;
      In the period from 1997-2004, consumer spending grew: for healthcare by 156%, for housing by 138%,
      for education and entertainment by 129%, for transport and telecoms by 125%, and so on...;

12.Average incomes have doubled in the last eight years, particularly for those along the eastern seaboard
     who have been the primary recipients of the first wave of investments;

13.Those in the hinterland are now fast emerging, supported by state allowances for many industries,
     especially in energy and agriculture;

14.China has the world's largest handphone subscriber base - 400 million users; she has leapt forward to
      adopt the latest technologies;

15.She has moved 300 million people (bigger than the population of the United States, for almost the
     same acreage size) out of poverty and quadrupled the average income; see map:
     
16.China is the world's largest producer of coal, steel and cement, the second largest consumer of energy
     and the third largest importer of oil;

17.She makes two-thirds of the world's photocopiers, DVDs and microwave ovens, and has a growing
     world market share in clothing, LCDs, microchips, refrigerators and air-conditioners;

18.She commands 88% of the world's watch production, 70% of the world's toy production, 50% of its
     bicycles and shoes, and 33% of its luggage;

19.She's rolling out 40 clean-type nuclear reactors, has built her own 64 teraflop supercomputer, executed
     her own manned space programme, developed her own rocket science industry, and cloned a live
     buffalo;

20.Her first tier cities has 4 municipalities and 10 provincial capitals; her second tier cities have 17 provin-
     cial capitals, 50 prefecture cities, and 15 more cities with population over 2 million;  her third tier cities
     number 200; her fourth tier cities number 400;  unlike others, China has  waves of development
     tiers, a most unique situation in the entire annals of human history;

21.Growth and income has spread wealth and opportunities for her people; previous mud enclaves, many
     homes are now bricked, tiled and well-furnished with modern amenities; last year, China produced
     300,000 multi-millionaires; probably more remain unreported;

22.China's labour rates are low, supply limitless:  " a German auto-worker makes USD 49.78 an hour; his
      US counterpart makes USD 36.68 an hour; their Chinese fellowman makes USD 1.96 an hour."
      (DaimlerChrysler, China); "Chinese truck prices are one-half to one-third the world price." (Dongfeng
      Motor); "Not just the factory of the world, China is also the world's price-leader in whatever it gets into."
     (US importer).

23.Last year, China produced 600,000 engineers, versus India's 350,000 and the US' 70,000;  there are
     over 140,000 doctorate students in the 1,200 tertiary institutions in China; thousands are studying over-
     seas in the west's top universities;

24."The key to China's growth is not cheap unskilled labor; it is cheap skille labor.  In the factories i visited,
     the plant managers, most of them American, told me they thought the Chinese engineers were better,
     more productive, and as smart and much harder working than the American engineers." (Harvard prof-
     essor,  May 2005);

25.China has a very big small-&-medium-scale industry base;  not too long ago, i visited some; their
     produced goods were literally spilling out of their warehouses, ready to be trucked for export;  they have
     some of the latest production technologies in use; China's SMEs provide 75% of the jobs and 60% of
     export revenue of the country;

26.Take the long view: China, India, Russia and Brazil combined form 41% of the world's total population
      and 8% of the global GDP, but because of the size and velocity of growth, they should overtake the G7
      nations by 2040.

My sense of the matter is that unlike other nations in the past, China has waves of development potential; the second and other tier cities will want to emulate the successes of the first tier so that as they reach that, the first tier will have raised the bar by moving forward; secondly, even if the export activities size down, domestic demand will build up because there is sufficient critical mass to justify production and services; thirdly, China's world trade policy has shown maturity of thought and consideration for others; knowing there will be some displacements, she has bought more resources and materials from other countries and is ramping up her investments in their companies and countries;  fourth, China's peoples are dynamic, hardworking, pragmatic and focused on practical life-issues, without foregoing the most unique resource available to all mankind - a heritage of wisdom, culture and world-views that can provide supportive strengths when called upon.   

The only thing she needs to do is to steepen her learning curves in all arenas as much as possible, while navigating sharply to avoid all the mistakes made by the west and other nations, including some threats to her ascent posed by zealous myopic bureaucrats in unfriendly nations.  People-to-people, Chinese and peoples in other nations, see eye-to-eye in so many areas, with so many win-win's yet to be crafted.

Somehow i sense a new type of dynamism that will help lift up this tired planet and bring a fresh wave of hope, achievement and prosperity for mankind.

China, rise.

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Post time 2005-12-17 12:14:26 |Display all floors

the map

china_us_map.JPG

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Rank: 4

Post time 2005-12-19 16:54:21 |Display all floors

In response to initial post

I have a feeling it's going to be soon after China's surpasses the Scandanavians. I feel anyone that tries to retard China's economic growth is only afraid and has no right to do it.

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Post time 2005-12-22 01:04:17 |Display all floors

markwu

i agree with you that for china to assume the super pwer or ect position it will need a greater wealth per capita, cause itsnothing much too be too proud if china has twice the wealth of the usa say in30-50 years when the population is only like 8 times larger than the us. Wealth per person is the true indicator when china should be proud of her achievements.

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Rank: 1

Post time 2005-12-22 12:08:00 |Display all floors
When China's juan get stronger and Chinese worker's right is fully respected..And no more copy right violation in China.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-22 15:29:08 |Display all floors

Wealth of Nation - international trade as guide..

Look at the latest WTO figures....

Europe - 40% of world trade.
New Middle Kingdom  (with Australia) - 35%
United States - 15% (mostly import)
Hispanic American states - 10% -rest of the world
Middle East
Russia
India and South Asia continent
Africa

Consumeable and durable trade is only 20-25% component wealth of a nation...

Then there is other factors like SERVICES, FOOD, HOUSING...that provides the remaining 75%...and the pictures get clearer

Europe - 25%
New Middle Kingdom - 35%
United States - 20%
Hispanic American - 5%
India & South Asia - 5%
Middle East - 5%
Africa - 5%

But if it is rated as CASH...then another picture arises

Europe - 35%
United States - 32%
New Middle Kingdom - 25%

etc. etc. etc.

cheerios!

fm
GreenDragon.

Note: all are estimated figures...not at all accurate....it really depends on "the way you look at the matter".

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Post time 2005-12-26 12:41:09 |Display all floors
if i must add a deadline on it ,i think ...it is 10000years

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