Author: zaq

U.S.-China trade talks to resume, but the final hurdle remains [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-8-2 10:39:12 |Display all floors
How can China meaningfully negotiate with the big bully in the White House?  Just when the talks concluded in Shanghai, he sent out a tweet threatening to impose 10% on the remaining 300 billion Chinese exports into US!!  He uses threats all the time, hoping that China would cave in to his unreasonable demands!  China must stand firm against Trump, only agree to what is fair and reasonable, never buckle under threats;  that would embolden Trump to demand even more, that is from his playbook!  Trump is desperate to get a deal down with China before going into 2020 election; China should not hand it to him on a platter!

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Post time 2019-8-2 11:06:09 |Display all floors
This post was edited by pnp at 2019-8-2 11:51
pnp Post time: 2019-8-2 10:39
How can China meaningfully negotiate with the big bully in the White House?  Just when the talks con ...

To be precise, the 10% tariffs will take effect on 1 September!  What is the point of negotiating a deal with US when tariffs would be imposed anyway?  And the items affected are mostly consumer goods, not raw materials, and that would hit American consumers real hard, especially the lower income ones!  Trump's big business friends won't feel the pinch, as they are already benefitting from his whopping tax cuts for big business!  Suffer the poor American consumers!

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Post time 2019-8-2 16:00:36 |Display all floors
pnp Post time: 2019-8-2 10:39
How can China meaningfully negotiate with the big bully in the White House?  Just when the talks con ...

Uncle Sam is getting terrible worried...

  Highest inventory of hogs and pigs

This is the highest June 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs in the USA since estimates began over 50 years ago.  US exports of pigmeat to mainland China are down 3% in the Jan-April period and are down 6% in total this year.

   Earlier this year, US futures market seemed convinced that these politically-created trade barriers would benefit uncle Sam and the US would benefit from the predicted dearth of pigs and pork in China because of of African Swine Fever.  However this bubble have been pricked and the pundits proclaiming that China would slaughter half its pig population have gone quiet...

  For China, the urgency to end the tariff war has lessened, with the economic downturn not as serious as expected...

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Post time 2019-8-2 20:03:56 |Display all floors
I said all along it is a complete waste of time negotiating with the economic thug Trump.
Beijing is continuing the talks to highlight the US wreckless global economic terrorism.

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Post time 2019-8-4 13:14:04 |Display all floors
The consensus of almost all commentators in the US mainstream papers is that Trump has adamantly got it wrong - his tariffs are in fact US taxes on American consumers and factories - and not his con that other countries pay those taxes.  In fact many of the older US steel and aluminium plants have folded because of the rise in raw metal prices.


Secondly, there could be two reasons in the background why he threatened the 10% tariffs on the second tranche of China exports within one day after the Shanghai talks had ended:

(a) he was unhappy with the size of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction by only 0.25% to about 2.25% and wanted to force Powell to reduce the rate more; the problem is central banks only reduce interest rates when an economy is not doing well or a threat to its performance looms over the horizon; thus, Trump adding pressure on Powell must mean his tariff weapon has not worked and he has been playing poker with peoples' sentiments:


Tariff Effect On Price May\'19.PNG

S&P Slump.jpg


Trump's first salvo of tariffs affected US manufacturers; his second salvo will next affect US consumers. The end result will be build-up of inflationary pressure in the US just when it runs out of workers who will next clamor for higher wages and thus reduce export competitiveness of US products, hence nullifying the cheaper US dollar effect from interest rate reduction to add to the counter-tariffs that other countries will impose in response to his tariffs,  all of which thus being of no help to reduce any US trade deficit.


Furthermore his populist piggle will mean decoupling US manufacturers from other markets and when the US economy comes under self-generated contraction, those manufacturers will run out of overseas markets to make their pile in order to pay taxes to reduce the US' USD22 Trillion debt (https://www.usdebtclock.org/).  


In short, he has dropped his tariff sledgehammer on his own foot:

Sledgehammer.png


(b) Nevertheless, he would be able to afford personal feet therapy since he would have known in advance Powell was about to drop the interest rate and therefore he could buy US shares before the market knew and sell them for a profit before his 10% tariff announcement which he would know in advance before those shares naturally fell in response to the tariff threat.  It thus seems likely he didn't care a spit how both his US and the rest of the world would be affected by his threats and tirades and personal glory.


He decided peremptorily to hit China with the new 10% tariffs on the rest of her goods after the Shanghai talks had adjourned. This is enough proof he has added a threat before any conclusion of the talks so that he is acting like a schizophrenic - wanting a deal but derailing its process.


Given this inevitable conclusion, how should any country respond, let alone one such as China which has suffered so much from the idiosyncracies of such a vindictive bully who yet self-proclaimed himself as a stable genius?


> Keep channels open but do as done before - counter-respond - while initiating Plans B (to Z).


It's necessary because all of a sudden the US is now planning to install 5,500-km intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles in Asia after cancelling its INF nuclear treaty with Russia, thus raising tensions when there wasn't any in places faraway from the US mainland :


HisP.jpg


Could it be because of the Japan-SouthKorea trade 'tensions'? (huh).   Perhaps Japan should remind the US that Japan was nuked twice by the US and any new nukes in the region may precipitate a hot conflict in NEAsia even if fired from Guam or Okinawa.  Surely the spirits of those 300,000 Japanese (and American, Korean,etc WWII prisoners) won't stand for them; they may even 'argue' that the US already has nuke subs prowling the seas in the areas so why add land-based nukes which are anyway targets for massive retaliations covering wider circumferences thus resulting in more massive collateral damage to those unfortunate to live in the operating places.


There you have it: trade + dollar + military. One can discount the other one, 'human' rights, because what the US' CIA infiltrators have done to the minds of HK youths can be considered inhuman in the resulting destruction of the public property and business which were servicing and employing them. And the HK opposition who had received a large sum from the USD29 Million allocated by the US' National Endowment For Democracy (NED) should hang their heads in shame.


And it wasn't about trade disputes either. After all, WTO records show that over the last 22 years, the US has been the biggest culprit - losing 89% of a record 129 cases.


By coupling US monetary policy with his tariff weapon, Trump has just exposed he intends to use the successive reduction of US interest rates to buffer against the negative effects of his future imposition of tariffs.


Perhaps he will finally come to his senses when the US Federal Reserve runs out of interest rates to cut but that may not even happen before the US economy nosedives and brings his house down.


Then it may finally dawn on him that his advice to US citizens about 'short term pain for long term gain' was actually meant for countries like China.


Hence, China should carry on what she has been doing all along. And support Huawei and others to make China's 5G project the most successful in the world. It will be - since 5G in BRI alone will uplift millions throughout the world who have been displaced by history.






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Post time 2019-8-4 13:50:32 |Display all floors
Should the next talk take place, the China team should point-blank ask, and before the talks start, what is being done after G20:

- on Trump's revelatioon that China academia should be welcomed and not penalized; has the visa restrictions been revoked in toto?

- on Trump's assertion that Huawei can continue to receive US supplies; has the ban on Android, ARM et al been revoked?

- on whether Trump and his congress accepts unconditionally or not accept unconditionally the admission by his Steve Bannon at a recent interview, namely:

" the clear goal of our nationalists who now dominate Trump’s White House team is regime change in China, and the collapse of China’s current economic system."

Before the talks start.

And if the US side admits to it with truculence or with excuses, look into their eyes for the truth, get up from the chairs, buy some candy, and take the next flight back.

After explaining why to the US media.

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