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The Deteriorating US Economy [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-1-24 12:30:57 |Display all floors
Robert J. Shapiro is co-founder and chairman of Sonecon, LLC, a private firm that advises US and foreign businesses, governments and non-profit organizations.  From 1998 to 2001, he served as Under Secretary at the US Department of Commerce from 1998 to 2001.  He was the vice president of the Progressive Policy Institute, an organization he co-founded in 1989.

The following are excerpts from his January 3, 2019 article headlined "The Deteriorating US Economy" with the subheading "Economists cannot say with precision when the next U.S. recession will begin. But there is no reasonable doubt that the U.S. economy will weaken in 2019."

(Begin excerpts)
In all likelihood, President Trump will face a seriously weakening U.S. economy in 2019, a development that could well shake his hold on Congressional Republicans and even some of his ardent supporters.

To date, the longest expansion in U.S. history lasted ten years (from March 1991 to March 2001). The current economic expansion will match that milestone in mid-2019....

Given that we have an elderly expansion on our hands, an economic downturn in the foreseeable future is thus a matter of when, not if.

At this point in the U.S. business cycle, one should see consumers continuing to pull back on purchases of new homes and large items (“durables”). That would be the case in 2019 even if the incomes of average households had not lagged inflation over the last 20 months. But they have.

As consumer demand continues to cool, businesses will slow new investment and hiring, and overall growth will likely fall to or below 2%. At the end of that road lies the next recession in late 2019 or early 2020. That’s not exactly supportive of Trump’s aspirations for reelection to the Oval Office in November of next year....

The deteriorating outlook on the U.S. economy has not been lost on global investors. The best evidence that their confidence in the U.S. economy has waned is not so much the stock market’s recent stumbles, but rather the changes in what economists call the “yield curve.”...

Those changes in the yield curve are the most reliable measure economists have that a recession is coming. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, an inverted yield curve has preceded by about one year every U.S. recession since 1960 with only one false positive (in 1966).

The bad news for President Trump as he contemplates the seemingly certain toxic fallout from investigators in 2019 is that the yield curve has already flattened dramatically....

Based on history and the hard data on what’s happening today, there is no reasonable doubt that the U.S. economy will weaken in 2019 as it enters the final stage of this business cycle.  (End excerpts)

Source:  theglobalistdotcom

Donald Trump's infamous Hitler-style rabble-rousing chants:  "Lock her up!  Lock her up!"

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Post time 2019-1-24 20:31:59 |Display all floors
Trump's deliberate tactical assault on the Chinese economy with his China imported goods tariffs, which in effect are taxes on the American consumers, has backfired on him and the Whitehouse horribly.

President Xi shouldn't be bailing out this bad manned, bullying American. Let him join George Bush senior and Jimmy Carter, be enlisted to the platinum membership of the One Term club.

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Post time 2019-1-24 20:35:33 |Display all floors
China recently reported their growth rate for 2018 was only 6.6%. The worst in years.
The USA would be elated to have that growth rate.
China exceeds the USA in manpower and infrastructure growth by a wide margin.
China is also closing in on the USA in the domain of technology. It's just a matter of time
before China will surpass the USA in that field too.
The USA needs to accept it is no longer the crown prince of the world.
If capitalism promotes innovation and creativity then why aren't scientists and artists the richest people in a capitalist nation?

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Post time 2019-1-25 23:31:36 |Display all floors
China is on course to be the world’s biggest economy by 2030, according to analysis that challenges Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. is not about to be overtaken.

The forecast was made by economists at HSBC Holdings Plc in a new study of 75 nations published on Tuesday. It also saw the Chinese as remaining the single biggest contributor to global growth over the next decade.

The projections suggest China’s gross domestic product will stand at US$26 trillion in 2030, up from US$14.1 trillion today. The U.S. meanwhile will see its GDP rise more slowly to US$25.2 trillion from US$20.4 trillion.

Just last month, Trump said that China was no longer on track to surpass the U.S. “in a very short period of time.” The HSBC prediction does though gel with that of the International Monetary Fund, which said in July that China could become the world’s largest economy by 2030.


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Anger is an acid that can do more harm to the vessel in which it is stored than to anything on which it is poured. Mark Twain

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Post time 2019-1-25 23:33:25 |Display all floors
Once China surpasses the US economy, the US will never be able to surpass China's economy.
Anger is an acid that can do more harm to the vessel in which it is stored than to anything on which it is poured. Mark Twain

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Post time 2019-1-26 00:06:33 |Display all floors
Trump's disastrous mismanagement of the US economy and foreign policy is now forcing the fool to divert attention of his failings.
Regime Changing in foreign land is what every warmongering US president have used to mislead his American voters back home.

Trump's new Venezuela military meddling adventure will give Putin his chance to avenge Russia's Afghanistan backstabbing by the US.
China must back up Russia.

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