Author: ceciliazhang

Will the Sino-U.S. economic friction lead to conflict?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-1-7 12:38:02 |Display all floors
sfphoto Post time: 2019-1-7 08:09
It’s US politics that is driving the economic tensions not the other way around as the US Globalist ...

Partly I agree. Most of western globalists do not want a military conflict with China, because such would not improve anything over what they have already been getting from China.

If there will be such military conflict, it would not be about trade or economy, but geopolitics.

However, when China's reforms started, what western globalists wanted is not quite the same as what they'd want today. Now they want access to Chinese consumers, when before they wanted cheap China-made goods for their own consumers.

In past whatever heavy-handed controls China applied to its population, and what some westerners criticize China of, served the western economic interests better than any war would have. But that too will change, when those interests move from manufacturing in China to sellling products and services to Chinese market.

Internet for example has changed this picture a lot, and internet in China specifically is still largely off-limits to foreign businesses, as is media overal.

Generally speaking, I think that these trade frictions will smoothen out some sharp edges, and then become business as usually. Meaning that some level of friction is normal in trade relations, and should not be feared or politicized. China, and other countries in relationship with modern China, are still in learning phase.

All-out military confrontation is certainly off the table, because leaving either or both country in ruins will not serve economic interests on either side.

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Post time 2019-1-7 15:33:07 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-1-8 03:16

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Post time 2019-1-7 15:50:04 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-1-8 03:16

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Post time 2019-1-7 15:59:13 |Display all floors
Trump wants to use China as a convenient scapegoat to undermine the US Globalists.


Technology cannot be kept secret for long, which means our world is a globalized market using the patent system to pay for new advances in technology.

Trump being not a scholar but a businessman doesn't truly understand the meaning of globalization and believes that his nation can restrict such technological interchange just by closing its doors to outsiders.

Well he is wrong -- dead wrong.

That's because curiosity is human nature, and once people know there's a better way of doing things, they will try to procure it through purchasing or other means at their disposal.

That's why the Anglo 5-eye's boycott of Huawei's 5G technology will come to naught because even a little difference in nanoseconds translates into a huge difference in performance of such products like online games, and no high-tech company can afford to be left behind in the competition just because of political discrimination.

Globalization is a historical megatrend that obeys the intrinsic laws of nature -- inasmuch as water always flows downstream and never the other way around -- it is not a school of thought or mode of behavior that can be chosen, abandoned or altered because the whole point of conducting international trade is for each nation to use its own specialty goods to exchange for those that it cannot make itself

That's why we now have the patent-right system to protect inventions because weve learned from experience such secrets cannot be hidden from public view for long without dire consequences.

Just think: if the Four Great Inventions from China had all been patented in their time, all nations of the global economy would have been bankrupted just due to the hefty sums of royalties they would have to pay China for their use.  

The fact that they couldn't be kept secret in their time meant that technological transfer was the natural way to go in knowledge diffusion even at a time before globalization, let alone nowadays when all technological advances can be protected by applying laws enforceable by international laws on patents.

Economic friction is the external hull enclosing the juicy inner parts of the fruit of technological advance of which not everybody is keenly aware.  

If we can handle the hull correctly by maximizing mutual understanding of all benefits that can accrue to nations engaged in global trade, then there's a chance for peace.

Otherwise, it will at least lead to regional war.

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Post time 2019-1-7 21:10:17 |Display all floors
Jaaja Post time: 2019-1-7 12:38
Partly I agree. Most of western globalists do not want a military conflict with China, because suc ...

You misread my last post wherein I was pointing out that the economic tensions between the USA and China is being driven by domestic politics not by geopolitical conflicts. Deng struck a deal with the US Wall Street Globalists after his visit to the USA. That handshake buried the geopolitical conflict between the USA and China because that deal served the US Wall Street Globalists by allowing their tax-evading MNCs to go to bed with the Dengist Kleptocracy who turned into rent-seeking Capitalists. But that deal came at the expense of the US White Working Class which is the same people that Trump is now pandering to by whipping up anti-immigrant hysteria, among other things.

China became a “cog” in the neoliberal economic system established by and for the benefit of the US Wall Street Globalists. There are other “cogs” in the system — Mexico in the case of NAFTA — which served the economic interests of MNCs to the financial benefit of the US Wall Street Globalists. Remember that under this neoliberal economic system, every country is just a “market” to be exploited by Capital. China and Mexico became labor markets for manufacturing industries while India and the Philippines became labor markets for services industries. The USA turned into a market of consumers with production of goods and services outsourced elsewhere.

What happened was that the Dengist Kleptocracy pimped out China to the US Wall Street Globalists for pennies to the dollar. But that era is about to come to an end, for one reason: Trump’s Nationalists want to revive the manufacturing industries to serve the US White Working Class in the heartland of America.

In short, US politics all boils down to a power struggle between the US Nationalists in Main Street vs the US Globalists in Wall Street.


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Post time 2019-1-7 21:21:29 |Display all floors
wchao37 Post time: 2019-1-7 15:50
Technology cannot be kept secret for long, which means our world is a globalized market using the  ...

Trump administration (and western in general) actually has two agendas, which would be good to keep separate:

1. protecting US jobs and trade
2. protecting the nation from foreign espionage and other political influence

The former is what drives the "trade war", while the latter is to make real war less urgent, or at least increasing the odds of winning one should the need arise.

Trump has nothing in particular on the latter, that the other presidential candidate would not have pursued as well.

That's why the Anglo 5-eye's boycott of Huawei's 5G technology will come to naught


Considering the separate two agendas, they believe the boycott will address agenda number 2 above. It is irrelevant how it translates to technological development or global market shares of related enterprises in USA, China, or elsewhere. If they choose to not use Huawei's technology, then the concern of national security (as far as that specific risk is considered) is dealt with.

Your argument would only be valid, if opting out Huawei's technology would require choosing another provider that carries the same risks. Then banning Huawei would indeed "come to naught".

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Post time 2019-1-8 05:27:36 |Display all floors


     All I can say is, Brace for the Worst .
     Because the worst has yet to come.      


There ain't no such thing as IDEOLOGY in the heart & soul of Colonialist-turned Capitalist Imperialism, other than chasing and following the self-interest of greed & extraction of great wealth.

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