Author: ceciliazhang

Xi, Trump Agreed on No Additional Tariffs After Jan 1 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2018-12-2 20:50:24 |Display all floors
Even as they touched down in Buenos Aires, they were already scratching their heads. Why else would they be trying to unsettle the China delegation by:

(a) their spokesperson Sanders irresponsibly saying the Argentinian host supported the US against China only to be officially and immediately rebuffed by the host? and

(b) the sudden addition of Navarro the sinophobe to the dinner table?

Nevertheless, their tricks didn't work. With 5,000 years of upbringing, the China delegates were cool, confident, earnest and resolute. US body language readers themselves later noted they smiled a lot and had their hands on the table in a display they had nothing to hide. President Xi looked up and down the rectangular dinner table at the US delegates, reading them to the core, sizing up their increasing unease.

In contrast, Trump depicted the acme of grumpiness and hunched shoulders and his entourage to the last man hid their hands under the table. Sweaty palms, perhaps?

It needn't be like that. As said repeatedly by China, both superpowers must work for world peace and prosperity. The US tactic of bullyism against China as a nation with a hugely longer history is not going to work; it smacks of low culture besides irrationality stoked as nationalistic populism. And if that self-inflicting posture of strategic rivalry continues after March 2019, what good will come of it for everyone for the rest of the century? Does the current policeman of the world only know how to inflict pain?

Take one US gripe. Trade deficit. The official latest US figure has now dropped from some USD500+ million to USD300+ million which meant the original US rhetoric was spitting in the wind when the first number pandered by Trump did not take into account that China exports to the US were mainly profited by US multinationals in China.

Let's say China buys more from the US to reduce the US deficit. Trade deficits or surplus are however moving numbers.  What if in 2020 China earns a trade surplus again? Is the US demanding that they must always be favorable to itself as seller for all times? People buy on the basis of natural needs and wants, not the artificial requirements of vagabonds who don't put their own house in order. The very fact that to this day the US has chosen to ignore this fact bespeaks the ignorance and insincerity of its stance against China. This should not be lost on the other countries which trade in surplus with China.

Meanwhile, the US General Motors automotive corporation has announced it will be closing some plants and this had made Trump threaten it with the removal of all its subsidies. At the same time, his administration is marshaling USD12 Billion in subsidies for US farmers.

So it's finally out. The US government DOES subsidize the US private sector so what gives it the right to accuse other nations? Let's also ponder what it does on cyber-warfare against other nations using its supercomputers and satellites, and its CIA activities to destabilize other governments. And it's only because the UK is still a US poodle that no UK government has ever tarnished the US for stealing English weaving technology in a clear display of IP infringement.  

Just two words on the US suffice - double standards. How does that make for any good deal in months ahead?

The Argentinian host took trouble to put together a good dinner. One can imagine how nice the duck risotto must have been.  

The dinner would however have been more complete if Mr Fatih Oktay from Turkey was also present to talk about his 3 Reasons.  

After which, the US delegates if they have a modicum of rationality may finally show up their hands... in a show of surrender.

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Post time 2018-12-3 09:09:26 |Display all floors
..ground by the filter..

correction: 'risotta goat's cheese'

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Post time 2018-12-3 10:38:41 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2018-12-3 10:45
markwu Post time: 2018-12-2 20:50
Even as they touched down in Buenos Aires, they were already scratching their heads. Why else would  ...

Yes, that looks fishy to me.  You've brought up another good point about the timing -- no deal can be good if it is made months ahead of decisions, especially since the man has been proven to be dishonest and non-dependable again and again.

I just wonder how many times he can successful use the same tricks -- bait the Chinese into buying 25 billion dollars' worth of goods as a first step; goad the Chinese into convincing North Korea to come to the tables as a second step; and once that is done start the Trade War against China back in May, 2018; then raise the prospect of levying a further 265 billion dollars of goods as a bargaining chip; then use the forfeiture of this threatened tariff as a bargaining chip to force China into opening its import market even more to American goods -- those not including the high-tech products that we actually need.

And did you notice included in FM's statement that the Chinese side understands America's legitimate concerns over the trade imbalance?

That means in the past their failure to allow high-tech exports to us was justified!!!

So despite all the ballyhoo regarding how successful our side had been for the current G20, I don't think of it as a good agreement at all.

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Post time 2018-12-3 10:40:51 |Display all floors
The Sino-U.S. trade talk conducted on the sideline of the G20 meeting was unusual indeed as far as meetings go.

While sessions with the leaders of most other G20 nations had been duly recorded and broadcast immediately thereafter, it was an entire day after FM Wang Yi had spoken to journalists gathered for the occasion that the handshake with Donald Trump was finally shown on CCTV.

The Chinese have a saying, "It is easier to move mountains than to change a person's character."

No one believes that "no tariff" is the end-game of Donald Trump unless he/she is afflicted with pre-senile dementia and doesn't remember how many written agreements the untrustworthy man has already fed into his paper-shredder, let alone the oral ones.

It is easy to see why.

Nothing solid except a vague promise of "no new tariff" has come out of the new round of Sino-U.S. trade discussions at the G20 meeting, a session that has come in the wake of Trump's personal phone call to Beijing a few weeks back.

If his past record is any guide, the U.S. president can instantaneously end any consensus reached during the meeting.  The Chinese side has already made the general promise that we'll buy more American goods to reduce the so-called trade imbalance, without any corresponding return promise from the Americans that they would open up their high-tech export market of things we NEED to purchase.

So that means we're on notice to buy Maine lobsters for every boy and girl at CD BBS at least once a week.

Just remember the history of their total genocidal war against Native Americans -- our genetic brothers and sisters -- after the Lewis-Clark expeditions had made them choose eternal westward expansion as their Manifest Destiny.  This aim will never change as long as they are our fellow passengers on Planet Earth.

Just remember U.S. Vice President Pence's anti-China rhetoric during the OPEC meeting which occurred barely a week ago -- a meeting ending on such a discordant note that for the first time in OPEC's history no consensual statement was issued thereafter.

Just remember how Trump had started the Trade War unilaterally against China immediately after he had ascertained that we had helped him coerce Kim, the North Korean leader, into the Singapore Meeting and unilateral disarmament.

This time he again is talking about his impending meeting with Kim -- in the coming January or February -- while giving the hope about withdrawing bilateral tariffs in the foreseeable future, and this time we again have promised to help him achieve his goal of meeting Kim Jr.

What's to come after the meeting with Kim?

Upon implementation of a third of the promises Trump made during the meeting -- including the withdrawal of ALL tariffs between the two nations and the observance of the Three Communiques regarding the issue of Taiwan, the Sun will rise from the west sometime next year.

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Post time 2018-12-3 10:44:16 |Display all floors
You will be a fool if you take it seriously, as simple as that.

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Post time 2018-12-3 13:02:09 |Display all floors
Whether on foreign policy, economic trade or technology transfer, the grating and persistent US leitmotif on China has been containment not engagement or cooperation. And on the other two remaining matters of ideology and currency exchange, the US cannot fault China as well since China does not export her ideology which applies only to strengthening her domestic organization for the state transformation reforms that the US and others have in fact encouraged but seem to have conveniently forgotten; as for currency exchange, China has responsibly shored up her currency only diminished by the impact of US unilateral tariffs on markets; notice how Mnuchin who had said he would investigate on China has suddenly become mute on the matter...

We can see for ourselves how after the illegitimate invasion of Iraq which had killed over a hundred thousand civilians, Bush immediately swung the US naval fleet into Asian waters when there was no military tensions to justify such a travesty against peace, only fishermen delivering kippers. This was of course subsequently followed by Obama inventing the US pivot to extend military leverage in the same region. So it requires no foresight to conclude after China had helped to smoothen matters on DPRK denuclearisation, ergo world peace as brother of global prosperity, Trump it was this time who upon discarding his cheeseburger would unleash with aplomb his trade tariff attack on China. That's what he did. And that's where we still are today. Ask no more the questions - who has been totally responsible to the world community? China; and who has been totally irresponsible to the world community? The US. As may be said, with 'friends' like the US, who needs enemies?

After all, we know that in criminal law evidence, the felon exposes his intention in his choice of action. In the case of trade tariffs on China products, the Trump administration has deliberately and disingenuously picked all those products which have supply elasticity. In other words, products for which alternative foreign sources may be substitutes. Therefore, the intention was never to reduce the US trade deficit with China since those substituted imports would in the aggregate not reduce the US trade deficit either as it would only next move to other foreign countries; in fact the deficits would increase since those countries have lesser means to buy as much from the US as China presently.  

Therefore, it was merely to reduce China's growth and rise in a world market where the comparative advantages of supply chain efficiency, product quality, production capability and capacity, and price effectiveness reside in China from years of strenuous sacrifice and effort that her government and peoples have displayed, the same comparative advantages which have also strengthened and profited hundreds of US multinationals which have invested and set up their large plants on China soil, in turn earning through their access to the China market the very market shares that have shot up their asset valuations and shareholder dividends year after year to keep their domestic innovation projects churning out new products that has in turn increased US net IP assets.

Which comes back to the 1Q19 (and no, that's not Trump's IQ). Should hope still spring eternal there will be a permanent resolution? If Cohn had to extract from the oval office table Trump's agreement to trade-punish South Korea, who would think Trump won't go back on his words after he wins his bunny points? If he had been the sincere about wanting to find a common solution, he would not have raised tariffs when he already knew the China delegate was already in Washington and about to discuss matters to come to a resolution. On the part of Trump for that matter his advisors, that is not just poor diplomacy; it is also hegemonious insincerity. How can any deal be struck with those who only want to game their exclusive wins targeting the complete erasure of growth and rise of another sovereign power? To allow for that would mean a country like China would be allowing for a country like the US to determine its destiny - and since both will be around for eternity - forever. Absurdity heaped on stupidity topped with incongruity.

China's exports to the US are but a minute fraction of her GDP which is in the main domestically generated. In the eventuality of a bad deal with the US, she may be forced by the unreasonable demands of the US to close off her entire market from US makers, but open it to other countries especially the EU and Asia which should be open to mutual cooperation and exchanges.  The US can keep its own illusions and delusions of its own design. As was said, dogs may bark but the caravan has moved on.  This would however be kinda sad, tragic in fact, considering how much potential the US peoples have in great relationships with China peoples. Just thinking about their past deeds as the Flying Tigers volunteer squadron suffices.

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Post time 2018-12-3 13:36:50 |Display all floors
JimSlip Post time: 2018-12-3 10:44
You will be a fool if you take it seriously, as simple as that.

You can say that again.

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