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PUTIN'S MESSAGE FOR CHINA - RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-9-3 16:17:37 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2016-9-3 16:20

With China slavisihly seeking Western investment and approbation in its blind pursuit of "structural reform" even at the expense of its ability to sustain its trade pledges to its friends, like Russia and other friendly countries, Putin's government astutely concludes that MAYBE China is working with the West to sell out Russia, covertly at present, and overtly in due time.

At a time when Russia needed to increase its trade to survive Western sanctions, China has the perfect excuse to let it cook in its own juices on the pretext that its economy is itself in decline, when in reality, its economic decline is self-inflicted through the forced revaluation of the Yuan to the point that its products have become overpriced in dollars abroad against foreign products, and also overpriced domestically in Yuans against foreign imports.

China's recession is artificial, and aims not only to cripple China but also its allies.  Putin has reason to worry that China is actually implementing Gorbachevian Perestroika, that will destroy not just China, but also those who depend on China as well.

His meeting with Abe in Vladivostok over the South Kurile Islands at a time when China is ratcheting up its military challenge to Japan over Diaoyudao is a reflection of China's high level summit with Poland recently, at a time when Russia was on the verge of challenging the missile deployment in Poland, which it denounced as a physical threat to its survival.

All of this is presently mere diplomatic posturing, as Russia cannot give up any of its Kurile Islands, at any price.  Thus, the Putin-Abe summit is not about substance, but about symbolism, to whom?  Not to America or Europe, but to China, that what China does to Russia, Russia can also do unto China.  This is realpolitik with a capital R.



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Post time 2016-9-3 16:48:48 |Display all floors
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Post time 2016-9-3 18:34:23 |Display all floors
Invalid argument.

You mean Putin befriends Abe in retaliation of China's approach to Poland?

Are you trying to pry open the close Sino-Russian relationship with an unsubstantiated argument like that?

Poland's significance to Russia is hardly comparable to that of Japan to China.

No Pole ever slaughtered over 35 million Russians in one prolonged war.

And China certainly didn't try to snub Putin in the process.  

It was merely coincidental that China talked to Poland because of other concerns.

Putin is no fool when it comes to survival.  

The Russians NEED China to even survive.  It is far cry from the days of aplenty when every product could be aquired through trade, legal or illegal.

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Post time 2016-9-6 13:00:44 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2016-9-7 12:05
wchao37 Post time: 2016-9-3 18:34
Invalid argument.

You mean Putin befriends Abe in retaliation of China's approach to Poland?

This is not an argument.  It is an observation, based on facts, and their probable causes.  Putin and Abe have a longstanding dispute over the 4 South Kurile Islands that Japan wants returned to Japan, but which Russia took over as its booty of war, in a fair exchange of war declarations in WWII.  That Japan lost is no fault of Russia's.  Who wanted Japan to attack Russia, first on February 8, 1904 that concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth on September 5, 1905, in which Russia accepted humiliating terms of surrender of Port Arthur to Japan.  Wonder if the 110th Anniversary of the Treaty of Portsmouth on September 5th was remembered by Putin in his attempt to befriend Abe, which he did not succeed in doing, because Japan wants all the four islands back at any price.  

The shot over the G20 bow in Hangzhou cannot be missed by China, especially as Putin met Abe in Vladivostok ahead of the G20 meeting when both of them met Xi.  It provided the context of the message - Russo-Japanese Friendship is in the works, separate from Russo-Chinese and Japanese-Chinese relations.  The likelihood of any major agreement between Putin and Abe is low, but the threat is that if push comes to shove, they could be partners again reminiscent of the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact of April 19, 1941, that was preceded by the ceasefire agreement of September 15, 1939, in the aftermath of Japan's defeat at the Battles of Khalkhin Gol of 1939, the most decisive of which was the Nomonhan Incident of August 20, 1939.  Stalin proceeded to sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact on August 24, 1939, and invaded Poland on September 17, 1939.  

That was how Poland figured in the geopolitical strategy of Stalin's Russia in 1939.

It is not clear if Putin is taking a page from him, and is trying to deal with Poland through a pact of non-aggression with Japan, or if Putin is also using his meeting with Abe to send a signal to China that Poland's situation is a core interest of Russia.  There is no reason for him not to kill two birds with one stone, even if one bird in hand would satisfy him well enough.

In the end, no harm was done.  But the message was delivered.  China would henceforth pay more attention to the strategic importance of Poland to Russia, economic and diplomatic considerations aside.


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Post time 2016-9-7 04:45:25 |Display all floors
Allstate not well between the two lovers

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Post time 2016-9-7 12:41:01 |Display all floors
China and Russia have more common interests than differences at this time.  Poland rankles Russia in terms of security, just as Japan rankles China in terms of sovereignty.  Both of which are core interests of both countries.

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