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South Korea's Opportunism Will Only Bring It More Troubles, Even Disaster. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-7-9 14:04:31 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2016-7-9 14:51

And so, like Poland, South Korea is going to point missiles at Chinese air space, not intentionally, but by necessity, to counter the missile build up of North Korea.  To some degree, South Korea is right that the North Korean missile buildup needs to be countered.  To some degree, its decision to deploy anti-missile systems that can also target Chinese missiles, as a side benefit, is opportunistic.  But to take this opportunity is to also start a chain reaction that will lead, yes, to the destruction of North Korea, which its allies would not mind at all, but which will equally lead to the destruction of South Korea, which China did mind and would have done everything to prevent up to now, but perhaps, no longer.  What has changed is that the destruction of South Korea by the North will have become not only acceptable, but desirable, if not necessary, for China's security.  This encirclement of China forces China to align 100% with North Korea, which dramatically increases the insecurity of South Korea, far in excess of the security it gets from its anti-missile system.  Because South Korea has traded a small loss for a much bigger loss, it can be said that North Korea has outplayed South Korea, and came out the winner.

Unfortunately for South Korea, it panicked too early, and gave up a winning hand for a losing one.


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Post time 2016-7-9 15:03:12 |Display all floors
Does China trust North Korea ?

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Post time 2016-7-9 15:28:38 |Display all floors
dusty1 Post time: 2016-7-9 15:03
Does China trust North Korea ?

Before South Korea's latest move, that was a difficult choice.  After South Korea's move, it was no longer a choice.  At the rate Trump is winning, there may not be any election after all.

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Post time 2016-7-9 15:54:39 |Display all floors
It could also be S Korea's hands are tied.

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Post time 2016-7-9 16:06:00 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2016-7-9 16:15

CHINA'S WEAKNESS IS SUPERFICIAL, BUT ITS STRENGTH IS REAL.

What South Korea should not delude itself with is the limited response from China.  The weakness of the response reflects the caution and lack of confidence of its leaders, who are immersed in some of the most intense in-fighting in China's modern history.  The danger is to mistake a partial or limited response for what China will have to do as a sovereign country in the end, by force of circumstances that are presently still in the hands of South Korea.  Park can make a mortal enemy out of China, even if China is seemingly reluctant to become one.  South Korea should not underestimate the final result of its actions on China's core national interest, which will change whether its leaders want to or not, and whether they understand it right now.  China is confused and unwilling to react - for now - but its national interest will inevitably cause it to act forcefully and decisively, when it is too late for South Korea to do anything to change the course of events, and suffer immensely as a result of its present misadventure.  

The same process took place before the Korean War.  China was undecided for a while.  But when it saw forces hostile to it approach the Yalu River, weak as it was in words and in actual firepower, it intervened forcefully, and the result is today.

Those who do not remember the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat it.




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