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S: Why would these mischief-makers want to do what they want to do when they too can benefit from new economies and markets formed by the projects? If poor become rich, then rich can be good consumers. Could it be because of some other reasons? Geostrategic, perhaps?
H: (jaw drops, ciggie falls onto pants, burns a small hole, smoke emanates; grits teeth, brushes off the ash expertly, clears throat). Geostrategic? Well, let's see what has been said. What is the situation today?
Let's see. First, the world's GDP comes from three regions. One is North and South America of which north became a maritime and military empire after the last world war. Second is the European continent which is big in economy and technology but with the exception of Russia is small in military. Third is Asia which has emerged as a re-surging wave of humanity of which China has attained within one generation pole position as a new superpower in all aspects, economy, technology, maritime and military.
S: By such a division are you saying geostrategies are always economic in intent?
H: Pride of ideology too comes into play. Which method is better to achieve better bigger economies faster? is a question few have asked, even less attempted to answer.
S: But isn't there another way of looking at it based on age? In the past, the US for instance was new world to the European old world. And today China and rest of Asia is new world to the US old world?
H: Ahem, allow me to say your beauty and grace are only exceeded by your intelligence and perspicacity.
S: (blushes) Can i treat you dinner afterwards?
H: (heaves chest) Of course, if heaven so mandates.
S: So which countries are important for the new geostrategy of the world axial and open with China?
H: One, the subject of this thread. Russia. It is the land bridge between China and Europe, whose two-way trade can also benefit Russia.
S: Surely the US post-cold war would have seen that and befriend Russia more?
H: What post-cold war? It never ended with perestroika. It has in fact continued to this very moment. Else why would the US in a North American islandic continent separated by large oceans on both sides from any invasion continue to spend so much above its annual budget on military expansion and excursions if not to neutralize Russia's military capabilities?
S: Ah! I see. Its military budget of USD800 Billion would not sit pretty with its own citizens who have a USD Trillion household debt, the largest in their financial history since the subprime crisis.
H: (jaw drops again, eyes glint merrily with appreciation) Yes. That's why the US needs a bogeyman. If not Russia, then the other commie, China. Any commie will do. In fact, it will take it out on Cuba as well if it could but that's just a small touristy island with rusty oldsmobiles.
S: But hasn't the US found that making China its scapegoat has been resisted by its very own corporations which have huge interests in China's economy present and future whereas they have none in Russia especially now that they have shale gas and thus fuel-freedom?
H: Which is why Russia must align with China globally to crimp the US eagle's wings. In fact we have another point here. It's the Middle East. Despite Israel and the jewish lobby in Washington, the US has backed Saudi Arabia of the sunni wahhabi tribe while Russia has backed Iran of the shia tribe.
As we know, both tribes want to be the sole gatekeeper to the door of the heaven of their common religion which is also paradoxically abrahamic in origin but that's another topic. Both tribes are carving their spheres of influence in that region, all the way up to Syria it seems. Which therefore pivots to Turkey which is a Nato member hosting US missiles pointing at Russia while its Ukraine is starting to speak Polish.
Let's say one day the house of Saud implodes because shale ruins its budget and its Yemen,Qatar excursions have refluxed. Oil price will then rise which will benefit Russia as supplier to Europe.
Meanwhile, let us remember that Saudi Arabia is only important to the US, UK and France as a major arms buyer. Its collapse will denude their industrial-military complex. Similarly, the US, UK and European oil companies have existing oil buying contracts with that wahhabi state which will be torn up.
So, one may expect the US to continue backing Saudi Arabia whatever the downside on its shale producers. But that will inconvenience Iran, Qatar and Russia further which means Middle Eastern states not convinced of a US-backed Saudi state can realign their monetary policies to use the renminbi as a new default trading currency which in turn will facilitate Central European/Asian-African continent-South Asian trade via the Belt Road routes, land-based or blue-waters.
S: I also understand China wants to buy Saudi oil but only using her currency. If Saudi Arabia demurs, then it will have surplus oil that has to be dumped at US-influenced forward prices which will be too low for it to maintain its budget which means it will lose its youths-dependent and lifestyle-addicted economy in exchange for continued military protection by the US. Unless it embraces China and others, won't it return to the desert from whence it came?
H: The house of Saud should therefore ask itself whether it wants to buy more US arms but at the expense of its peoples being unemployed and its government without means to provide livelihood into the future. There's also the matter of theological underpinnings and implications for over a billion believers worldwide.
S: By a similar ken of reasoning, one can see how Germany can also detach from its historical link to the war-wrought US-backed alliance and engage in a new global market ripened by the Belt Road initiative. It should start now that the US is adopting an isolationist posture in Europe but maintaining a military posture in Asia. What with Germany, therefore so too with France. What about the UK?
H: The Brits whose mischief onto countless nations around the world was nurtured on the playing fields of its Eton and Charterhouse? They can stew in their mulligatawny brexit soup and conduct tourist tours for gate money on their two new aircraft carriers.
(a momentary and uncomfortable silence)
S: Shall we?
H: Lead the way. There's a nice noodle shop down the road.
S: Will it be errhh ...alright?
H: I can't think why not. Already detached. From life.