Views: 2196|Replies: 13

"UNPRECEDENTED" DANGER FLASHING RED IN THE MIDDLE EAST - BEWARE!   [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 07:51:46 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-29 12:26

There is a historical context to everything we say or do, whether we realize it or not, which sometimes emanates from our subconscious awareness of the connection between events.

On November 28, 2015, Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, in explaining why Putin signed off on a decree of multiple economic sanctions against Turkey, said, "The circumstances are unprecedented. The gauntlet thrown down to Russia is unprecedented. So naturally the reaction is in line with this threat."  

This terminology is significant, even if it might have been entirely coincidental.

On June 22, 1941, after receiving confirmation of Germany's invasion of Western Russia that began in the wee morning hours of 4 AM that day, Stalin ordered his foreign minister (then, also acting as spokesperson for the government), Vyacheslav Molotov, to announce over the radio at noon, a response that used the same phraseology (maybe it is common for Russians to say it this way), as follows:  

"Citizens and Citizenesses of the Soviet Union! Today, at 4 o'clock in the morning, without addressing any grievances to the Soviet Union, without a declaration of war, German forces fell on our country, attacked our frontiers in many places, and bombed our cities - Zhitomir, Kiev, Sevastopol, Kaunas and others . . . an act of treachery unprecedented in the history of civilized nations.  The Germans - not the German people but their bloodthirsty leaders  - had broken their faith with the Russians who had fulfiled all their obligations under the Pact of Friendship.  The Red Army and Fleet, and the valiant falcons of the Red Air Force would drive back the aggressor.  Our people's answer to Napoleon's invasion was a Patriotic War . . . The Red Army and the whole nation will wage a victorious Patriotic War for our beloved country, for honour, for liberty . . . Our cause is just.  The enemy will be beaten.  Victory will be ours."

The allusion to the invasion of Russia by Napoleon is not coincidental either.  Operation Barbarossa (named after Emperor Frederick I of the Holy Roman Empire) and Napoleon's invasion of Russia began on the same date of June 22nd, separated by 129 years.  And thus, the link between the Turkish attack on the Russian plane without any warning, does remind the Russians of both Operation Barbarossa and of Napoleon's invasion, all in one chain of memories.  To make matters worse, after the military alliance was agreed upon between Germay and the Ottoman Empire in 1914, the Germans were reported to have aided in the supposed genocide of Armenians, who lost up to 3 million lives, under conditions of starvation, rape and murder.  Thus, the association of the Turkish attack on the Russian plane with Nazi Germany through the coincidental or intentional use of the word "unprecedented" is a very bad omen for things to come, and very, very unfortunate for both countries.

Erdogan has a limited time to admit the mistake of his own military people, perhaps acting under an assumed permission from higher up to fire first and then look, when faced with a Russian plane near the Turkish air border, but which based on the objective evidence brought out by the Russian government, seemed to have taken place ENTIRELY in Syrian air space, for which there is no verbal justification possible, only apology, compensation, and a court-martial for its errant officers and commanders.  This is the honorable way out for Erdogan.  It is manly to admit a mistake and to make good the Russian losses.  It is doubtful that the Russian data and analysis could be substantially different from the facts.






Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 11:53:17 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-29 12:10

Few websites report on the edited out section of the CNN interview with Erdogan recently which focused on how Turkey would react if Russian SAMs in Syria were to shoot down Turkish planes that illegally entered Syrian air space, and his response was that it was a matter of national sovereignty for him, and he would respond appropriately, but not discuss it ahead of time.  To the credit of the interviewer, she did ask if Turkey would apologize, before she let out the litany of criticisms that Putin had publicly levied on Turkey.  So, we are seeing Erdogan mishandling the interview again, because he was coming from the point of view that the Russian plane was shot down after it entered Turkish air space, and that if so, Turkey had nothing to apologize, period.  Unfortunately, he was not told the true  facts, which tells us that the order to shoot down the plane did not come from him, nor would it have been approved by him, but was engineered by somebody extremely close to him, who could act against his better judgement, and get away with it.  This smells of some kind of blood relationship, which have caused the downfall of many a dynasty.

It is a sad day for Russia, and a sad day for Turkey.  

The only way out of this dilemma, with honor, with dignity, and with responsibility to his own people, and not condemn them to suffer extremely for a mistake he did not catch but nonetheless was carried out in his name, is to apologize, compensate, and court-martial the offenders, no matter how close they are to him.  The alternative is the beginning of Armageddon centered on Turkey, which once started, can only end after all the dominoes have fallen.

It has been apparent for some time that Erdogan's attempt to use NATO to balance Russia, and to use China to pull Russia away from Syria, while being at the same time demonized in the West as a genocider of Kurds, is unworkable, and his position, unsustainable.  In the end, he offended one of his "strategic partners" and economic benefactor, Russia, which is not unexpected, given his strategy of playing off one power against another.  Before Erdogan can affect events politically and diplomatically, he needs to regain his credibility as soon as possible.  In short, he must lead again, and to lead, he must regain his authority, which requires a demonstration of moral, impartial, responsiblity.  Otherwise, he would become a victim of events that will soon get out of control.  The next event is this - a Turkish plane enters Syrian air space (a regular occurrence, by the way) and is shot down by Russian SAMs in Syria - then what?  Don't tell me what, please.  That would be a lie.  Nobody knows what happens after THAT, please.





Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 12:14:17 |Display all floors
Who has the credential to defeat the Caliphate?
who has the credential to defeat ISIS?

It is the Turks.
When the Ottoman was disintegrating, there was a power struggle between a new Caliphate and Kamal Turk Attaturk. who won....and the rest , as they say, is history.

The historical moment for the Turks to defeat ISIS has arrived. It is their destiny to invade Syria and defeat ISIS. It is their destiny to take charge of Syria (again).


The Russians are best advised to step aside.




I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 12:24:01 |Display all floors
world leaders need to get behind Erdogan and support Turkey.


that is where the future of the world will be fought.

we have to make sure Turkey wins in both the battle to modernise the Islamic world and to contain and control the Russian bear.



Turkey cannot do it alone.
We don't want Russia to bully Turkey, do we?



I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 12:26:43 |Display all floors

Luckily, Turkey is a member of Nato.
Putin will not dare to  do he please. for as long as Nato is firm and decisive.


I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 12:35:27 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-29 12:45
Revolutionar Post time: 2015-11-29 12:26
Luckily, Turkey is a member of Nato.
Putin will not dare to  do he please. for as long as Nato is  ...

Revolutionar, are you saying this after hiding under your bed?  What a heck of a warmongerer are you, but thankfully, nobody seeks or takes your advice.  The Ottoman Empire was defeated by Britain, which why the UK is very attached to the events in Turkey and Syria, both of which were under its control.  The real destroyer of the Ottoman Empire was the Arab League led by the Saudi's under the leadership of Lawrence of Arabia.  In this, Erdogan's dream of re-establishing the Ottoman Empire runs up against two major adversaries, the Saudi's and the Iranians, not just the latter, as the Turkey Spring movement proves.  Then too, he has the Kurds to contend with.  The hope of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire simply do not have the necessary conditions for coming to fruition.  Attempting it is brave, but sacrificing all for it, when it is not really attainable, would be foolish.

Turkey's best strategic approach is not to have a so-called "mixed strategy" when in reality all these strategies are dominated by the fact that Russia will never give up its Syrian bases.  Trying to mix one's strategy, say 30% of time siding with Russia, 10% with China, 40% with America, 10% with NATO, 10% with other smaller countries, etc., when all of them are made moot by the fact that Russia will defend its bases in Syria, only hinders Turkey's own development, security, and stability.  Playing off one power against another fails against the reality that Turkey can never win against Russia without being completely destroyed if push comes to shove, as is now transpiring before your eyes.  Dominated by this reality, Turkey should have instead asked for concessions regarding the status of the Turkmen in Syria, and may even have gotten them sufficient autonomy to make them safe, productive and happy.  Contrast that with today's scenario, where both the Turkmen and Turks are overwhelmed with the foreboding of future destruction.  But, that is not what the economics professor teach their students.  They are perennially in search for the Nash equilibrium, when the answer is much simpler and easier to find.  Find the wisdom to accept things that you cannot change, and the courage to change the things that you can.




Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-29 12:49:08 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2015-11-29 12:35
Revolutionar, are you saying this after hiding under your bed?  What a heck of a warmongerer are y ...



The Turkey Republic is founded on defeating the Caliph.

The Turks are the best hope for a united modern world with Islamic Renaissaince.

Turkey is at the best time and place to defeat both Putin and ISIS.


But first, Turkey needs some help from Nato.


I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.