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PROTEST! REFERENDUM WITHOUT RECOUNT IS INVALID! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-9-20 11:12:59 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-9-21 10:10

Anomalies in the registration of voters have only now surfaced, after Alex Salmond spared no time to concede defeat, without inspecting the troops to see if they indeed had lost the battle, or have merely been sidetracked.  The media attack on Dundee and Glasgow which are strongholds of the Scottish Patriots only shows the underhanded techniques of the pro-English factions in plotting to undermine any YES victory, if it should take place.  But, it does raise the question that if Glasgow and Dundee could permit impostors to vote YES, then why cannot the rest of the country permit still more impostors to vote NO?  To be fair, a recount is absolutely necessary to restore the public trust in the electoral system, which now is itself suspect of bias.

The solid and consistent results of 7 polls taken (just one day before the referendum for four, and 2 days before the referendum for three others) was held, declared on the average that the YES vote had 48% of the votes, and the NO vote had 52% of the vote.  

Here were the polls before election day, on September 17, 2014, as follows:

POLL YES NO
YouGov/Sun 48% 52%
Survation/Daily Record
47% 53%
Ipsos-MORI/Evening Standard
47.4% 55.6%
Panelbase 48%52%
Opinium/Daily Telegraph
48%52%
ICM/Scotsman
48% 52%
Survation/Daily Mail                              48%        52%
Ipsos-MORI/STV                                   49%        51%

The following is a simple statistical analysis of the results of the polls and of the referendum, and the simple question we are asking is "Are the polls and the referendum measuring the will of the same population?"

SCENARIO I:   Assume that the percentage of YES voters is as claimed by the SEVEN major polls (four, one day before the referendum, and three, two days before the referendum) is 48%, and that the percentage of the NO voters is 52%.


QUESTION:  What is the probability that after 3.6 million votes are cast, you will get a result of 44.7% YES and 55.3% NO votes?


ANSWER:  Z = (p-P)/Sqrt(P*(1-P)/n)

where

p = 44.7%

P = 48.0%

n = 3,623,344


THEREFORE:  


Z = -125.7


Prob(Z<-125.7) = 0.00000000000000000...

CONCLUSION:  If the real proportion of YES voters is 48% as all seven different polls claimed just before the referendum is true, then the PROBABILITY OF THE REFERENDUM REPRESENTING THE SAME POPULATION OF VOTERS IS VIRTUALLY ZERO.


SCENARIO IIa:    Ipsos-MORI/EveningStandard asked 991 persons minus those who are undecided, or about 941 persons, and found the YES vote to be 47.4% and the NO vote to be 52.6%.  

ASSUMPTION:  That the true percentage of YES votes is as claimed by the reported referendum results is 44.7%, and the percentage of NO votes is 55.7%.


QUESTION:  What is the probability that in such a pre-referendum survey, you will get a result of 48% YES and 52% NO votes?


ANSWER:  Z = (p-P)/Sqrt(P*(1-P)/n)

where

p = 48.0%

P = 44.7%

n = 941


THEREFORE:


Z = 1.67


Prob(Z > 1.67) = 0.0498


A one-tailed test is used since we are testing whether the percentage YES in the referendum is really less than the percentage YES in the polls.  And, therefore, we can state at a 0.95 confidence level that the two populations tested, i.e., the polls and the referendum, are NOT IDENTICAL.


Scenario IIb, IIc, IId, IIe, IIf, IIg from six other polls all come to the same conclusion (to be supplied in a separate table). The probability of all 7 poll YES percentages being different from the referendum by random chance is 0.000000000000019.


CONCLUSION: If the real proportion of YES voters is 44.7% as reported in by referendum is true, then the PROBABILITY OF THE IPSO-MORI POLL REPRESENTING THE SAME POPULATION OF VOTERS IS LESS THAN 5%.  THEREFORE, AT A 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL (ALPHA =0.05), ONE MUST CONCLUDE THAT THE POPULATION OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS SAMPLED BY THE SEVEN POLLS IS NOT THE SAME AS THAT COUNTED IN THE REFERENDUM.  SINCE THE POLLS ARE PERSON-FOR-PERSON TAKEN FROM THE POPULATION OF THE REGISTERED VOTERS, AND CAN BE VERIFIED BY THE POLLSTERS TO BE IN FACT RANDOMLY SELECTED FROM THE POPULATION OF REGISTERED VOTERS, THEREFORE THE REFERENDUM SAMPLE IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION OF REGISTERED VOTERS.  AS SUCH, THE VOTE COUNT FROM THE REFERENDUM IS NOT A VALID MEASURE OF THE WILL OF THE REGISTERED VOTERS OF SCOTLAND.


SUMMARY POLL VS REFERENDUM RESULTS:

Date(s)  of Survey

Polling  organisation/client

Sample size

Total Persons Surveyed minus the Undecided


Probability of  YES in Referendum being less than in the Polls






Yes (%)

No (%)

Total Y/N votesYES votesNO votes

Z-value



18-Sep-14
Referendum Result

3,623,344

44.7%

55.3%

          3,623,344        1,619,635   2,003,709

-125.7

0.0000

16–17 SepIpsos MORI/Evening Standard

991

47.4%

52.6%

                     941                    446              496

1.65

0.0498

16–17 SepSurvation/Daily Record

1,160

47.3%

52.7%

                  1,056                   499              557

1.67

0.0476

15–17 SepYouGov/The Times/The Sun

3,237

47.9%

52.1%

                  3,043                1,457           1,586

3.52

0.0002

15–17 SepPanelbase

1,004

47.4%

52.6%

                     954                    452              502

1.66

0.0487

15–16 SepIpsos MORI/STV

1,373

49.0%

51.0%

                  1,318                   645              673

3.11

0.0009

12–16 SepICM/The Scotsman

1,175

47.7%

52.3%

                  1,011                   482              529

1.90

0.0286

12–16 SepSurvation/Daily Mail

1,000

47.8%

52.2%

                     920                    440              480

1.91

0.0283


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Post time 2014-9-20 22:08:48 |Display all floors
Surely there is a mechanism for a recount! But I find the 55% vs. 45% result pretty convincing. In polls, people answer less responsibly than in real votes.
What's on your mind...

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Post time 2014-9-20 22:18:51 |Display all floors
Old Snake Seneca, the Western press actually favored the retention of the current system of oppression of the Scots by their English masters, stealing their voice with a fake vote, and getting their leader to show his real color on the last day by ditching his supporters and hiding in his home when they needed him at the front.  Not only that, where on earth did he get the idea that regardless of the results, including of the potential rigging and violation of rules of conducting elections, that 99% of the Scottish people would be happy with the outcome?  The best thing that ever happened to Scotland is that now, its supposed leader has resigned, mission accomplished.

Have you seen the cavernous hangar used as the Royal Highland Counting Center where the votes were being counted?  The people there could not be monitored from across the space of a football field what they were doing to the "ballots" in their boxes, which of course, could not be traced as to where they came from or where they went, according to accredited Russian observers.  They were there to learn how an authentic real referendum is being conducted, only to learn it isn't being conducted according to the very standards they were taught by the Western powers, including UK, of all places.  How would you like your student to tell you, sorry, "1+0 is equal to 1, not 2" when you are counting your ballots?

All that can be said about the referendum is that if it were not intentionally rigged, it is so full of holes that you can pass a hundred boxes of ballots through the Swiss Cheese cavern of counters.

UK is a land of magic.  Even its votes are magical.  They appear and disappear into thin air.

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Post time 2014-9-20 22:26:41 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-9-20 22:30
Ted180 Post time: 2014-9-20 22:08
Surely there is a mechanism for a recount! But I find the 55% vs. 45% result pretty convincing. In p ...

You are assuming that the actual results were 55.3% vs 44.7%, in saying it is pretty convincing, but that is like saying when Hitler lied to the world with astounding claims, it is pretty convincing.  He was the father of the Great Lie Always Wins crowd.  

The question is, with five polls saying the election was TOO CLOSE TO CALL, how could the ACTUAL VOTE ENDED UP TOO FAR APART FOR THEM TO HAVE MISSED,  by a gap of 10.6%?


Were the 5 polls deaf, blind or retarded?  Or, was the final vote RIGGED?

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Post time 2014-9-21 06:31:52 |Display all floors
Simply truth is the jocks choked it at the  very end......I predicted this would happen, as they have a history of turning their backs on their leader.....
William Wallace once again has been stitched up hasn't he...
if you want something in life get off your backside, and do it yourself!! don't rely on others to do it for you

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Post time 2014-9-21 06:45:47 |Display all floors
This goes to show opinion polls are not accurate.

The result was fair, you appear to be the only one questioning it

You are just a bad loser

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Post time 2014-9-21 06:50:15 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-9-21 08:01

One of the reasons that 2014 was selected by the Scottish Parliament as the year for the Referendum on Scottish Independence was because 2014 is the 700th Anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when Robert the Bruce II defeated King Edward II, and decisively delayed the English conquest of Scotland by another 400 years.

To see no attempt by Salmond to rally the troops around Bannockburn or the Wallace Monument in Stirling on the final and most important day of the entire campaign is to see the mind of this fellow.

There is no Bannockburn or Stirling in his mind!!!

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