Author: abramicus

The Mathematics of War Needs to be Understood to Preserve the Peace.   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-8-10 15:58:39 |Display all floors
"Lead to a probability of 1" means it will make something that is currently only a possibilty become a reality.  This happens everyday.  All of Wall Street is about probabilities becoming certainties, when paper gains and paper losses become real gains and real losses as positions are cashed out.  The current misguidance of a superpower by pundits who ignore the elementary probabilities of using proxies, these very same proxies who stand to gain from the war to be shouldered by their superpower friend without risking the same degree of destruction, is in many ways similar to the way that AIG was set up to insure against the losses of the banks (proxies) who generate income from selling mortgages that are likely to default, even if the chance of default individually may be small, whereas the systemic risk in the aggregate has been snowballing towards the probability of 1 in the 2008 crash.  The time to step back from selling any more loan insurances to these proxies is now, not after the crash, because in the matter of a global war, there are no infinite virtual lives one can throw at the catastrophe to regrow an entire nation with, like the Fed can create fiat dollars to throw at the financial collapse with.  

This is a trap set by the proxies and special interest pundits for their superpower friend.

If AIG could fail, every institution in the world could also fail.

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Post time 2014-8-10 16:09:42 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-10 16:14


It is clear that this message has alarmed the professional trollers now out in force to create confusion.  The cat of their duplicity has been let out of the bag.  They are afraid the world will know what risks they are subjecting its inhabitants to with their harebrained sophomoric schemes of world domination by proxy.

There is still time for true peace between China and America.  But time is running short.  All it takes is for Japan to shoot down one Chinese plane over Diaoyudao, for example.  

If Wall Street truly discounts risks, especially political risks of a worldwide conflict, it should have been shut down by now.  As it is, it is just a market for stocks and options, and can see no further than the street corner fortune teller.  And as long as there are willing customers, it couldn't care less what the future really holds.

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Post time 2014-8-10 17:13:46 |Display all floors
This post was edited by sfphoto at 2014-8-10 23:35

In the field of mathematics, this is called "stochastic systems" which tries to predict the outcomes of events based on probabilistic models. There's another field called "chaos theory" which tries to model unpredictable events based on recursive relations. In electrical engineering, it's called "feedback theory" which has evolved into "systems theory" as applied to other areas of interest.

But I agree with you that using proxies whether allied or not is extremely dangerous because of the unpredictable outcomes of geopolitical events. Anyone familiar with the Vietnam War should know about how wrong U.S. Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara was in predicting the outcome of that conflict using statistical models based on "body counts". The same can be said of the Iraq War. What was supposed to be a quick easy and clean victory based on the Powell Doctrine of using overwhelming force has instead turned into a decade-old quagmire.

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Post time 2014-8-10 20:12:12 |Display all floors
Peace differs from the absence of war. To see it clearly, imagine war as a garden under parasitic attack, imagine absence of war the way you define it above as a salinated wasteland, a desert. Now, in that binary religious belief system, which is  idyllic,  the parasite infested garden or the vast desert offering endless nothing in exchnge for blood? In contrast with those Binar choices, genuine peace is waged with good work in good relations, analogous to the growth of an oak forest. Binars don’t know how to think sensibly. It would be wrong to ask me to be only nice and only congenial on the matter after suffering and witnessing decades of harm due to Binar constructions and know-it-all prejudices. I understand dialogue has to start somewhere and for over two decades have been looking forward to the day when a Binar admits umbrellas do not cause rainfall. I am being diplomatic and in the future when readers see clearly the harm that Binars do, my response to the situation will be seen as gentle.

At News 178852 President Obama revisits the American genocide intervention policy which includes acting, as a way of dealing with the information conversion from binary systems to ternary. I corrected the definition of if in an online White House chat in 2011. A new idea to which some people may still be adjusting is the idea, in the ternary sytem, only true data passes the information traffic checks. So we have to change those intervention strategies that used to rely on false cues to see what’s happening.

At News 179232 Russia may mediate conflict resolution talks with Azerbaijan, Armenia and previously unacknowledged Karabakh. Note the Russians can mediate a conversation having more that two perspectives, which a Binar cannot adequately do. However, responding to volatile, unstable situations merely with control tactics is usually contrary to peace since control tactics by definition won’t listen, and conflict by definition happens from relation erosion due to absence of listening. Addressing volatile situations has to happen calmly, giving stable, peaceful life options inside a range of wanted scenarios a chance. We cannot impose an unwanted governance system any more than we can deny results of Physics.

What of China and Russia? So far China is the lead negotiator for peace in the world due to focusing on forming good relations, testing accusations or new ideas once instead of with infinite repetition, and co-building a mutually beneficial, mutually interesting real life and real future together. The process of stepping into the role of next world bank is changing China, however, China is still being Chinese which is the most important part of embracing so much rapid change. Russia is going to emerge strong after some internal issues are addressed. Russia’s negotiation ability is strong however some cold war habits interfere with so-called symmetrical responses which really are asymmetrical.
Jennifer Han Zhenhao

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Post time 2014-8-10 20:52:10 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-10 21:07
sfphoto Post time: 2014-8-10 17:13
In the field of mathematics, this is called "game theory" which tries to predict the outcomes of eve ...

I am glad you mentioned recursive systems which for the apparent simplicity of their basic equations, can produce outcomes that while deterministic are empirically, if not theoretically, unpredictable.  Proxy wars belong to this category in the sense that proxies have agendas of their own, one of which is the moral hazard of setting a fire to collect the insurance that Japan is doing over Diaoyudao even as we speak, which feed back into the loop of US China policy and aggravate any pre-existing risks, to the point that it may reach a critical point or singularity where chaos, not expectations, prevail.  Japan forgot that before it can collect the insurance, it must suffer first the loss, of a likely severe if not absolute nature.

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Post time 2014-8-10 21:43:18 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-10 23:10
J.E.Overington Post time: 2014-8-10 20:12
Peace differs from the absence of war. To see it clearly, imagine war as a garden under parasitic at ...

Your understanding of binary and ternary logic is obviously way ahead of mine, but let me simply state what may be obvious to others, which is that in negotiations, such as over the sovereignty status of Diaoyudao that is at the heart of the Sino-Japanese conflict today, it is preferable to allow as many points of agreement as actual conditions would permit, and that a strategy of take-it-or-leave-it will often miss many real opportunities for a mutually satisfactory result, any one of which may have averted military conflict.  China is being kind and gentle to a Japan that refuses even to accept the subject of sovereignty over Diaoyudao/Senkaku as as a topic of negotiation, let alone permit even the possibility of any compromise on this dispute.  As such, if any extreme outcome should result from such inflexibiity on the part of Japan, which is banking on the moral hazard of letting America go to bat with China if worse comes to worst, that represents an unheard of unary diplomatic function where the range of its diplomatic function is exactly the domain it supplies, then logically speaking, Japan simply asked for it.  And, thus would deserve it, if the advisers to Obama are logical people that is.

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Post time 2014-8-11 00:00:25 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-11 00:37
yipman2.1 Post time: 2014-8-10 23:36
They are Jews that are only concerned with minor details of their passover celebrations. Such fr ...


Errors in logic can have real world catacylsmic consequences beyond software shutdowns.  Aided by advanced technology, errors in logic can shut down entire countries, or the entire planet, in less than a minute.  This crash of civilizations is something that no pundit has ever experienced and therefore will be unable to prevent or guard against - but it is hardwired into their code for world domination thru proxy wars.

You would be surprised about the diversity of ethnicity populating the think tanks that guide or misguide US China policy on behalf of their patrons and special interest groups.  Whatever their ethinc backgrounds may be, some of their logic that grsolly underestimates the risks of proxy wars, is fatally flawed in that they only see the probabilitis of fire burning down any individual tree, and not the risk of a forest fire or conflagration.  Without a mathematical framework, they simply cannot tie all the individual risks into an aggregrate risk, which is already way beyond their expectation.  

Just read yearly about how fires are set by arsonists for their own benefit in the national parks out in California, and you will have a good feel for the moral fiber of those who claim to care about the welfare of the public, but actually betray their deepest interest for a small, even trivial, personal gain.

And this isn't just a forest fire we are talking about.  It is a global conflagration, never before seen in human history, or likely ever to be seen again.  These pundits who set up the war by proxy regime are so used to getting away with it, and may even be Nobel Prize winners to add to their opacity to their mistakes, until a LTCM event of Sigma 7 appears on their horizon, not just on their screen, and all they can say is, their whimpering defence, "But it cannot be . . . "  For fools rush in where angels feared to tread.

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