May 21, 2022, 09:17
The historic summit between the US and ASEAN took place recently in Washington. It was the first time the leaders of ASEAN member states were invited as collective guests of the US. Over the years, the US has continued to deepen its partnership with Southeast Asian countries. ASEAN is the fourth largest market in the world, and the US is ASEAN's largest source of foreign direct investment, with the bilateral trade volume exceeding $360 billion in 2020. It cannot be denied that Washington still has a huge influence in the Southeast Asian region, although such influence has weakened over recent years.
There are many reasons for this change. One of the important facts is the improvement of China's soft and hard power, especially its economic and technological strength. Another reason is that the US has adjusted its policy toward China and has led to an overall intensification of competition in many fields. Southeast Asian countries are becoming more cautious about getting involved in the game of great powers. Although the Biden administration proposed a new version of the Indo-Pacific strategy in February this year, this strategy still has obvious shortcomings in the economic field. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and changes in the security situation in Europe have also affected Washington's strategy and resource investment in Southeast Asia.
The economic agenda is one of the focal points. Washington believes that Beijing's strong economic influence in the region poses a serious challenge to its dominance, so it must strengthen economic ties with the region. It hopes to use the summit to further strengthen consultations with ASEAN countries on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and win ASEAN's support. From China's view, the Biden administration has not shied away from looking at Southeast Asia from the perspective of US-China strategic competition, and the summit is full of hidden issues regarding Sino-US competition. The summit can be viewed as an important step for the US to implement its Indo-Pacific strategy. But Washington is trying to downplay the geopolitical overtones of the summit, as seen in White House briefings and speeches from Biden, Harris and Pelosi. The reason may be that the US needs to consider the feelings of ASEAN, and to highlight the openness and inclusiveness of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
It is worth noting that, recently, Chinese officials and scholars have made extensive and persistent criticism of the US practice on inciting camp confrontation and establishing small groups around the world. Some ASEAN countries also expressed concern about the division of the international community and the resurgence of the Cold War mentality. Although Washington has repeatedly emphasized its support for ASEAN centrality, what the US has done in diplomatic practice is to maximize the instrumental value of ASEAN countries. Another noteworthy detail is that the US ambassador to ASEAN had been vacant for many years, and Biden did not hold separate bilateral meetings with ASEAN leaders at this summit. The US strengthens its alliances and builds small multilateral mechanisms in the region with QUAD and AUKUS as main pillars, which in fact weakens ASEAN's centrality in regional security affairs. Such an approach can hardly be regarded as a respect attitude for ASEAN. The starting point of it is not the common interests of Southeast Asia, but the strategic interests of Washington in reshaping China's surrounding environment.
At the summit, the US put forward cooperation initiatives for ASEAN in many fields, including climate change, clean energy and transportation infrastructure, space cooperation, digital economy development, people-to-people and cultural exchanges and higher education, maritime and law enforcement, and medical cooperation. Behind this variety of cooperation projects is the relatively limited US investment in Southeast Asia. The $150 million that Biden announced for ASEAN is far less than the amount of aid that the US Congress has planned for Ukraine. If it is averaged to ten ASEAN countries, the amount will be even more insufficient. For comparison, in the first four months of this year, the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN reached nearly 290 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.
At present, the main concern facing ASEAN countries is still to achieve economic recovery and improve people's livelihood as soon as possible in the context of the epidemic. The above cooperation initiative undoubtedly outlines a promising prospect for the cooperation between the US and ASEAN, but it is also full of uncertainty as to what extent it can meet the practical needs of ASEAN countries in the short and medium term. In essence, this approach has not overcome the shortcomings of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, that is, it lacks a systematic and pragmatic cooperation concept and feasible path in the economic field, and it is difficult to effectively connect with the development strategies of ASEAN countries.
Among these initiatives, maritime and law enforcement, medical cooperation and higher education are mostly continuations and expansions of previous cooperation. Investment in smart infrastructure may be attractive to ASEAN countries, but in terms of improving infrastructure conditions, most ASEAN countries currently do not have the urgent need and economic guarantee to promote the development of smart infrastructure.
As for more specific cooperation projects such as private sector training and elite talent training, the actual beneficiaries are not the people of ASEAN countries, not even the ruling authorities, but more likely pro-American people among the elites of these countries.
It is worth noting that maritime cooperation is presented as a separate item in the list of outcomes and the joint statement. In this area, Washington announced $60 million for a new regional maritime program, most of which will be led primarily by the US Coast Guard (USCG), including personnel and equipment deployment, combating IUU fishing, equipment assistance and staff training. This reflects that the United States takes this as a key concern and indicates that the US Coast Guard will be more involved in maritime security affairs in the South China Sea in the future.
US maritime cooperation with ASEAN builds on US allies and partnerships in the region and has become a priority area of cooperation in recent years. During talks with ASEAN leaders, Harris also mentioned the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and international law. Considering that China and some countries have disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation in the South China Sea, the US move also aims to contain China's activities in the South China Sea and win over other parties to the dispute.
From next month, China, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand will successively host the BRICS Summit, the Leaders' Meetings on East Asian Cooperation, the G20 Summit and the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, ushering in an Asian moment for the global governance.
For the past decades, the ASEAN-centered regional cooperation architecture has formed in East Asia, which is the key to maintaining peace and stability in the region. A week before the US-ASEAN summit, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand issued a joint press communiqué, stressing that the international community should meet challenges in solidarity and develop in an open and inclusive manner. This conforms to the unanimous will of all countries in the world to oppose bloc confrontation and promote stability and prosperity together.
The world today is confronted with a choice between solidarity and division, between cooperation and confrontation. The Cold War mentality will only undermine the global peace framework, and bloc confrontation will only exacerbate the security challenges of the 21st century. In this sense, no matter what regional strategy is proposed, the purpose should be mutual benefit and win-win results rather than a zero-sum game.
US preaching, holy cow.
Another 19 kids got murdered in school, total death count was 21 while their leader is holidaying in QUAD company.
Mind you, bitterly complaining about Hum n rights. For crying out loud, don8 American children also deserve such privilege?
My message to America, stay home and clean up your own household.
Why ain't there millions of parents camping in white house garden to demand the rights for their children to live.
Viewing Asia through its imperial lens, the US seems to be harboring a pecking order of Asian countries:
1. Japan and South Korea, above
2. Australia and India, above
3. Asean
This pecking order reflects how much importance the US assigns to those countries based on how much they can contribute to its unwavering strategy to confront and contain China, even when it has shamelessly been displaying that strategy by tariffing China, sanctioning her companies, incarcerating her researchers, prowling its navy in her backyard, and stoking separatism from Tibet to Taipei, Xinjiang and HongKong.
First, Asean.
Asean is last on the pecking order because the US knows the Asean countries would rather not have any US disruption of their peaceful rise and development which are being served by China as their preferred trade buyer and investor.
Since Biden can't possibly not know the US also has cumulative capital investments in the Asean countries, surely he should accept that peace and stability in Asean that will come about from less US antagonism against China will also be good for his US investors in that region.
Yet, in all that his US has been doing by its reprobable way of trying to confront China and instigatively change the status of its own signed and notarized One-China agreement, it has shown neither consistent logic nor benign intent, as his own US multinationals in the region will attest.
Because if they themselves agree with his US, they would have long protested against China by now. Instead, they are only protesting that China has not reopened faster so they can make more profits and revive their supply chains that originate from her industrial ecosystem.
What has happened now that is so different from then when the One-China policy was signed? The only difference is China has risen. Therefore the only conclusion is the US doesn't like it.
Which is why it wants to surround and contain China. Which is thus why she has to establish presence in the South China Sea to protect her trade routes else the US can blockade her.
And she has done so by neither accosting their sovereignty nor the freedom of navigation of their goods, many of which being also part of her industrial ecosystem extended to the whole of Asia not just because it makes economic sense from economies-of-scale to comparative advantage of diversified sub-supplies but also because the populations of many countries in Asia have elements of Chinese heritage.
So, what are the two major things the US has offered the Asean countries at the summit that shows how insignificant the US considers them? One US vessel to combat illegal fishing and how to defend human rights.
It needs to be asked how much does it really know about rampant piracy and fishery in that region? It also needs to be asked how much will the US admit to its nefarious roles together with the UK in the infamous anglophonic Jakarta Solution that had resulted in the deaths of millions whose lives would surely have qualified as a human right? Biden and Sherman would not have been able to profess any honest answer at the summit.
Next, Australia and India.
Morrison is out, sharing the same tail between the legs as Pompeo. Albanese is in to fight climate change and abuse of women, lower taxes, improve child care and provide aid to the South Pacific. All that will cost money which has to mean Australian exporters need more business and Aukus costing billions needs to be iced. Who was their best business partner, investor and student supplier until Morrison and Dutton went bonkers against China?
India and China are ancient civilizations. The revival of both civilizations can enrich the global pantheon of human civilizations and help lift up the whole of humanity, many of whom still poor, marginalized by the advanced economies of the West, but still searching for their own destinies and dignity.
The problem at the border was caused by the same colonizer of both, (the not so Great anymore) Britain. Recognize that, and the problem becomes surmountable.
If India claims China has intrusive intent, how can it explain China's installations are only defensive in profile at specific locations and not aggressive massing of an invasion force? Indians should remember it was the US which had called Nehru a commie at a time when China was still trying to ward off American cold war racism.
So long as India maintains good relations with China and expands trade and investment by both, there will be no reason for India to abandon its non-aligned autonomy which it has wisely seen as necessary to avoid conflicts such as happened with WWI. For two ancient civilizations, any conflict amounts to a useless internecine fracas between essentially brothers. Modi should start mending the broken fence by getting the other Ambani to return the USD771 million in Chinese banks' loans already arbitrated and the other seizure of Xiaomi's proprietary assets in India.
Lastly, South Korea and Japan.
Biden visited South Korea for the military prong of the US' trident of military-economic-political trident.
Yoon must realize US extended deterrence expands conventional attack capability and military drills to include total surveillance and nuclear strikes.
This will destabilize the Korean Peninsular when it was peaceful until Biden stepped onto the tarmac, coincidentally it seems. Will Trump have to re-read his love letters from Kim for sanity to prevail?
Since Seoul's Thaad also has range into China's airwaves, Yoon should quickly realize the US trap he has fallen into.
After all, the Asean leaders already know in order to combat illegal fishing, US satellites will be ranging over their skies to surveillance every marine craft in all the waters of the whole of Asia.
That means the US can use its total satellite surveillance with the implicit abeyance of every country to catch any vessel breaking any sanction on any country it imposes in the future. Illegal fishing, was it? Sanctioning HikVision instead!
Japan will see its CPTPP pushed aside for the US' IPEF. Just as for the Asean leaders, there will be no expanded access to the US market for Asian goods and services. Biden wants to keep his US market only for Maga + BBB while selling only US values, however tattered by years of war-mongering conquests subsidized by proxyfied co-players.
Both should note neither the CPTPP and the IPEF will amount to the RCEP which is creating the biggest free-market in the world by increasing the trade interoperability of its member signatories.
Now, why would China restrict navigation and joint-mining in the South China Sea and yet promote more seafaring trade through her RCEP?
Even the next meeting of Quad-Aukus after Japan won't be able to answer that.
All the above analysis converges to one US focus that exposes its intent to contain China by disrupting Asia at cost to all Asians in order to make itself more relevant and needed (if at all) in Asia. That focus is Taiwan. And that's why Washington-Taipei want to annull the One-China policy. Even if it runs afoul the United Nations.
Asians and US business interests in the region should ask Biden to go home and stop US mischief in the region.
ren
US preaches one thing but does another regardless of damage and harm to others just not to have the same effect on itself. The world lives at its mercy with full compliance. Life in US has spun downwards with the rich getting richer and the poor poorer. This is what US wants for all human lives on Earth!
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