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Is China's birth rate low enough to cause population crisis?

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ceciliazhang

May 13, 2021, 14:38

(Excerpts from Global Times)Now that the 30-page seventh national population census communiqué which contains thousands of figures has been released, what is behind the data and what does it reveal about the true picture of China's demographic changes? 


Chinese demographers differ on the interpretation of China's actual fertility rate, the severity of the population situation as well as the incentive policies to encourage more births. 

Demographers agreed that China's population has come to a critical turning point as the country's population ages rapidly while the overall growth rate slows, and that the country needs to speed up the removal of the family planning policy, and draft new retirement plans and social policies to lower the cost of raising children. 

Some demographers who seemed to be deeply troubled by those figures calculated their own figures which point to a lower fertility rate, predicting an alarmingly worrying future scenario for China's population development to warn that China may become the country with the world's lowest fertility rate. Based on these predictions, they advise the country to spend up to 10 percent of its GDP to reward newborns, by giving bonus up to 1 million yuan to each child one couple has.

But other demographers said China is so far still the world's most populous country with abundant labor resources and promising economic development prospects. All these concerns, no matter too much or not, could be eased or even dispelled through active policies and efforts by society that are adapted to China's current stage of development.  

How low is Chinese couple's willingness to have more children, could it be low enough to result in a population crisis a few years from now? And should China reward couples with 1 million yuan ($155,400) for every child they have, as advised by some demographers?

4 448
Newtown
pnp post time: 2021-05-15 12:20

Go to an orphanage, use a relative's newborn to claim as your own, kidnap a child, use fraudulent paperwork, use friendly bureaucrats. Lots of ways to skin this particular cat.

pnp

" And should China reward couples with 1 million yuan ($155,400) for every child they have, as advised by some demographers?"

It's already been practiced in some countries facing the same problem! 

pnp
Newtown post time: 2021-05-13 20:37

"along with the inevitable flood of fraudulent claims."

Say, how do you make "fraudulent claims" if you don't have the babies to prove your entitlement?  

Newtown

The one million yuan payment for each new baby would see parents come out of the woods to earn this much money in the countryside, along with the inevitable flood of fraudulent claims.