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The Realpolitik of Peace in the Ukraine [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-3-4 23:50:03 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-3-4 15:57

The Hollywood Uprising of Kiev cannot be turned back.  The unity of the two parts of Ukraine, the West that is anti-Russian and the East that is pro-Russian has been shattered by a betrayal of trust.  President Yanukovich offered the Prime Minister position to the opposition, accepted curtailment of the powers of his office, and agreed to an election to be held in December 2014.  Russia felt the concessions were excessive and did not sign on to it.  The opponents of Yanukovich, and the anti-Russian faction, felt it was too limited, and took the matter into their own hands, using violent tactics of physical battle with the government police, to take over government buildings, and bring the existing government to a standstill.

They created an existential risk for the pro-Russian eastern half of Ukraine, which responded by inviting Russia to protect it, and perhaps, if necessary to annex it.  Thus, the Russian troops now in Crimea.

This situation is highly unstable because many factions are unable to secure themselves.  And therefore, they are prone to acting forcefully to protect themselves.

What is needed is a clear perspective of what is the next viable equilibrium point, other than the one that has just collapsed, i.e., the unity government that Yanukovich tried to negotiate for.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the next viable equilibrium point would be similar to the North and South Korean situation.  The Western faction must have enough security to not want to attack the East, and vice versa.  This can only be achieved by a partition of Ukraine with each side having enough resources and military power to remain what it wants to be.  A new border line between Kiev and Crimea needs to be drawn and guarded, as soon as possible.  This boundary must allow both sides to have enough resources to live, and to survive any outside attack.  

In a sense, Russia would be doing both sides of Ukraine a favor by securing the border of Crimea to its west and its north, but leaving the Kiev government enough to remain secure in its poltical authority and economic prosperity.  It may sound like another "wave of invasion" by Russia, but since the UN cannot act to effect this border demarcation, Russia has to do it for the sake of both sides.  By posting its forces along what could be a stable equilibrium of separation of the two sides of Ukraine, Russia would be establishing the basis for a future peace.  But this seizing of the boundary line has to be done when it could be done with the least resistance and bloodshed on both sides.  To the bleeding hearts, this may sound too brash.  To a surgeon facing a country that could otherwise bleed itself to death, cutting along the lines of least resistance in order to make each part whole, may not save the whole, but it would certainly save the two parts, with the hope that over time, they would agree to form a confederation, even if each member would retain a much greater degree of autonomy that each could have achieved on its own.

Russia's entry into Crimea, if not followed by a border line definition between Kiev and Crimea, would invite a long series of conflicts that would end up trying to achieve such a border delineation in the end, but only after a lot of suffering and bloodshed.  So why not create this border today, avoid the bloodshed and fighting tomorrow?  Time to build a fence for Ukraine's two opposing sides.  It may sound like self-serving for Russia, but it actually would be a service to its all, to grab the next equilibrium point before any blood is shed.

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Post time 2014-3-6 21:25:27 |Display all floors
an excellent perscription considering the alternatives , commend the author  on his clear vision

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Post time 2014-3-6 23:39:55 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-3-6 15:45
lawrencion Post time: 2014-3-6 13:25
an excellent perscription considering the alternatives , commend the author  on his clear vision

Thanks for the compliment.  I take it as a duty to offer a solution to a problem that if not managed effectively and in a timely manner could result in the unnecessary deaths of thousands.  Left alone to reach the next point of political equilibrium, both sides would have to expend lives, fortunes, and goodwill, to finally achieve the creation of a DMZ between the two sides, the exact location of which will be determined by their actual security and economic needs.  By leapfrogging the painful process of evolution and natural selection through military conflict and seige, a sustainable status quo can be achieved that would be nearly identical to what the natural course of events would ultimately produce, minus the dying and the suffering of thousands, if not millions.

The West should welcome Russia's further next step, missing so far, to declare a demilitarized zone separating Western and Eastern Ukraine, without prejudice to the final outcome that the people of Ukraine will ultimately decide on, i.e, without implying that there will be two independent Ukraine republics.  The negotiations should focus on the exact location of this DMZ, but the initiative should remain Russia's because it is in fact the ONLY power now capable of creating and enforcing it.  The meetings between EU and Russia can only be consultative to Russia's initiative, based on the reality that only Russia can enforce a DMZ on the ground at this time.  By making trade porous through this DMZ, the livelhood of both sides will be not hindered, nor destroyed (as in a civil war).  It would also lessen the suffering of the public in Europe which depends on Russian gas for its heating and energy needs.  The DMZ thus serves as a "semipermeable barrier" or membrane that allows both cells to live normal lives of statehood, and the Eurasian supercontinent to live out its natural relationships of interdependence, both of which form the basis for choosing peace to war by all parties.  

Because it is never easy for any side to decide how much territory it must give up to the other side, Russia, in the interest of saving time, and saving lives as well, may have to make up its mind as to where and when to set up the DMZ of East and Western Ukraine.  This may appear unpopular and self-serving, especially to those who are whipping up hatred for Russia, for its own sake.  Under the pretext of wanting to preserve the unity of Ukraine, outside forces are actually hoping to sustain the conditions for a bloody civil war in Ukraine.  

On the other hand, the creation of a reasonable DMZ will be appreciated as a gift from an old neighbor toward settling the family feud between East and Western Ukraine.  As an elder stepping into a family fight, the first step is to keep the two sides at arms length from each other, which immediately makes further wounding and blood letting next to impossible.  If the absence of internecine killing is the only realistic definition of peace in Ukraine, then the DMZ, logically speaking, would be the only means to peace as well.

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Post time 2014-3-7 03:11:52 |Display all floors
it is good for the price hike of oil and wheat and gas
Round Up is good for developing the mind

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Post time 2014-3-8 19:57:41 |Display all floors

Russia may be facing imminent military defeat in Crimea, which is practically indefensible.  This would usher in a New World Order  Both Russia and China may be Balkanized in the end, after much bloodshed and struggle.  Crimea is Russia's Diaoyudao.  It can be had, but it cannot be held.  But if lost, the loss of morale for its troops and its public would be unbearable, and would lead to a cracking up of its own internal political structure, lending itself to being Balkanized in the process.  Without its strategic rear, China would be twice as vulnerable from attack from its coast, and when combined with terrorist and separatist uprisings in its western region, it will succumb, like Russia would have done by then.

Then, the One World Government will be announced.

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