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ColinSpeakman Post time: 2014-3-4 08:49
There have been many that have rushed to comment that a split Ukraine is unthinkable. I am not so su ...
Ukraine is really a divided country, as it is. Keeping the two sides together only ensures that one side will try to dominate the other, leading to a bloody civil war. The backers of Kiev want the whole Ukraine, including Crimea, and it is this "unity in hostility" that will bring about the end of both parts of Ukraine, whereas separate, the two sides can at least peacefully coexist with each other. Besides, Crimea was annexed into Ukraine by Khruschev, not by the consent of the Crimeans, and therefore, the bond between Crimea and Urkaine is quite artificial. But Kiev wants Crimea because, precisely because, it is dominated by the Russians it hates, and therefore, the desire to have Crimea is not one borne of love, but rather of hatred, which no Crimean will accept, and thus, the way the current situation is structured, more conflicts are inevitable.
Russia should make a clean job of its intervention in Crimea by finding a boundary that is defensible by Crimea, but tolerable by Kiev. It should not leave Crimea too small or isolated to defend, nor should it be too big for Kiev to tolerate. But above all, such a border should be found and enforced before more blood is shed, precisely in order to prevent such bloodshed on both sides.
A referee, even if he is the brother of one of the fighters, if he truly aims for peace, would separate the two fighters far enough so that no one fighter can take a jab at the other. Russia's problem is that it may not have enough power to enforce a mandatory distance of separation between Kiev and Crimea, or insert itself as the buffer zone between the two. With all the kibitzers crying foul and howling at him, Putin may be paralyzed in his actions to allow the two sides to take jabs at each other, when he in fact should ban such actions by occupying for now at least, the future DMZ between Kiev and Crimea.