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This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-1-2 16:36|
The heroic effort of Xu Shuaijun, who is making a career out his balloonist adventures, to Bohai in 2012, and now, to Diaoyudao in 2014, merits analysis.
First is motive. Is he motivated by patriotism, or by wish to get more publicity? Or, is there another agenda? Who knows?
Second is abiity. Did he have the necessary skills and equipment to make a successful landing on Dioayudao? If not, he is at best a brave soul, but at worst, not a very simple character, because his failure becomes in international relations, a failure of China to claim it has adminstrative control, let alone sovereignty, over Diaoyudao.
The latter question is what concerns all forumites.
How is it that the Japanese Coast Guard was more aware of his whereabouts than the Chinese Coast Guard, such that when he landed in an area 20 km from Diaoyudao, he would be "rescued by the Japanese Coast Guard" and then turned over to the Chinese patrols. This negates the claim of China to have effective administrative control over Diaoyudao and its sourrounding seas.
The failure of the Chinese Marine Surveillance patrols (or Coast Guard) and of the Chinese Air Force to know that a balloon is flying toward Diaoyudao also punctures the claim that the East China Sea is effectively administered under the Air Defense Identity Zone of China.
The failure to reach Diaoyudao is also problematic, because the harder part was getting to within 20 km of Diaoyoudao, not landing on it. He had already overcome all the obstacles by traveling 95% of the distance to Diaoyudao from Fujian province, so what is it in the last 5% that made it impossible for him to reach the island? To fail when success is in grasp requires a very good explanation. Was the weather particularly bad at that time and place? If not, the failure itself could have been contrived to give China a black eye instead of a trophy.
China has to monitor the "activists" who want to go to Dioayudao, and either admit to its citizens that the government does not have the abiity to ensure their safety to an island that it is required to safeguard, thereby banning their going there, or act to protect the activists in every way, to assure their success in landing on Diaoyudao. Making a show of defending Dioayudao from Japanese aggression while allowing Chinese citizens to fail in landing on Diaoyudao is just one step short of admitting Japan has real administrative control and de facto sovereignty over Diaoyudao, which is something that the Chinese public will never accept.