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CHNESE BALLONIST'S FAILURE TO REACH DIAOYUDAO REQUIRES REFLECTION [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-1-2 16:09:38 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-1-2 16:36

The heroic effort of Xu Shuaijun, who is making a career out his balloonist adventures, to Bohai in 2012, and now, to Diaoyudao in 2014, merits analysis.  

First is motive.  Is he motivated by patriotism, or by wish to get more publicity?  Or, is there another agenda?  Who knows?

Second is abiity.  Did he have the necessary skills and equipment to make a successful landing on Dioayudao?  If not, he is at best a brave soul, but at worst, not a very simple character, because his failure becomes in international relations, a failure of China to claim it has adminstrative control, let alone sovereignty, over Diaoyudao.

The latter question is what concerns all forumites.

How is it that the Japanese Coast Guard was more aware of his whereabouts than the Chinese Coast Guard, such that when he landed in an area 20 km from Diaoyudao, he would be "rescued by the Japanese Coast Guard" and then turned over to the Chinese patrols.  This negates the claim of China to have effective administrative control over Diaoyudao and its sourrounding seas.  

The failure of the Chinese Marine Surveillance patrols (or Coast Guard) and of the Chinese Air Force to know that a balloon is flying toward Diaoyudao also punctures the claim that the East China Sea is effectively administered under the Air Defense Identity Zone of China.

The failure to reach Diaoyudao is also problematic, because the harder part was getting to within 20 km of Diaoyoudao, not landing on it.  He had already overcome all the obstacles by traveling 95% of the distance to Diaoyudao from Fujian province, so what is it in the last 5% that made it impossible for him to reach the island?  To fail when success is in grasp requires a very good explanation.  Was the weather particularly bad at that time and place?  If not, the failure itself could have been contrived to give China a black eye instead of a trophy.

China has to monitor the "activists" who want to go to Dioayudao, and either admit to its citizens that the government does not have the abiity to ensure their safety to an island that it is required to safeguard, thereby banning their going there, or act to protect the activists in every way, to assure their success in landing on Diaoyudao.  Making a show of defending Dioayudao from Japanese aggression while allowing Chinese citizens to fail in landing on Diaoyudao is just one step short of admitting Japan has real administrative control and de facto sovereignty over Diaoyudao, which is something that the Chinese public will never accept.



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Post time 2014-1-2 16:16:01 |Display all floors
Seneca, old snake, how much was the payola?

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Post time 2014-1-2 16:44:43 |Display all floors
Hmmm, this smells of a false-flag-failure to hand Japan a victory it never really won - administrative control over Diaoyudao - if the Chinese Coast Guard and Air Defense were never properly informed of the balloon flight from Fuqing, Fujian, to Diaoyudao.  Did they actually know of the trip, and merely turned a blind eye, expecting he would actually succeed, and then were surprised that he actually failed them, failed his country, in a volunteer operation where he, not his country, was in control of when and where to land?  How did a working man learn all the ropes about ballooning, find the time to train, get the money to buy the very expensive equipment, and not have to squeeze his hobby time out of a tight work schedule, if there was nobody financing it?  The fellow doing this is either a hero or a villain, but only a proper fact check can determine which is the real truth about the failed balloon trip to Diaoyudao.

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Post time 2014-1-2 17:11:38 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2014-1-2 16:44
Hmmm, this smells of a false-flag-failure to hand Japan a victory it never really won - administrati ...

Can see your conspiraccy theory wheels spinning. How about this? Xu didn't inform China of his flight plan. And they shut him down. Only to be saved by the Japanese.

btw according to AP "The Japanese Coast Guard received a missing-person report from Taiwanese officials" Sounds like the PRC was totally out of the loop.
Good Gweilo: My job is the ideological quality control

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Post time 2014-1-2 17:20:42 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-1-2 17:23

If the failed balloon trip was really an act of failed patriotism, then China has a duty to make sure there is another patriotic civilian attempt to land on Diaoyudao that succeeds, in order to erase the false impression that Japan, not China, has effective administrative control and sovereignty over Diaoyudao.

If the failed balloon trip was in reality an false-flag-failure operation of Japan, using its pawns to give the world the impression that China does not have real administrative control or sovereignty over Diaoyudao, as late as January 1, 2014, in preparation for its military move, next, against Chinese patrols and civilians, then China must not waste any time in getting either a voluntary admission of such fact, or support Chinese civilians in landing on Diaoyudao as soon as possible, before Japan makes its next move.

Let's put it this way.  If the pilot of the balloon was able to overcome all the problems of take off and travelling 95% of the way to Diaoyudao, given its known climate conditions, then the probability of a natural or mechanical cause of the failure to reach Diaoyudao is mathematically less than 5%.  It is therefore statistically significant as a non-random error until proven otherwise.

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Post time 2014-1-2 17:33:19 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-1-2 17:39
wowzers Post time: 2014-1-2 17:11
Can see your conspiraccy theory wheels spinning. How about this? Xu didn't inform China of his fli ...

Wowzers said "btw according to AP "The Japanese Coast Guard received a missing-person report from Taiwanese officials" Sounds like the PRC was totally out of the loop. "

Indeed, this above was reported by other news media as well.

The plot thickens.

1.  How did the Taiwanese officials know there was a person missing, if that person did not come from Taiwan, and was never a Taiwan resident?

2.  Why did Taiwan not inform the Mainland Chinese government that its own national was in distress near Diaoyudao, where it supposedly has 24/7 patrols near and inside its sovereign waters of Dioayudao?  Is this a Taiwanese pro-Japanese coup-military operation to demonstrate its allegiance to Japanese authority over Diaoyudao?  If talking to the Mainland is too politically sensitive, why did the Taiwan Coast Guard not do its own surveillance, when it also claims sovereignty over Diaoyudao, just like Japan, and has even a treaty with Japan to allow Taiwanese fishermen to fish near Dioayudao?

3.  With Taiwan tipping off Japan, the plot has just gotten thicker.  These traitors to Taiwan, and also to China, have no business being the Coast Guard of the Republic of China in Taiwan.  They should apply to Japan instead.

THIS WAS HOW CHINA LOST TAIWAN TO JAPAN IN THE BEGINNING AS WELL.  THROUGH THE TREASONOUS ACTIVITIES OF ITS OWN DEFENSE CHIEF AND PRIME MINISTER, LI HONGZHANG, WHO SOLD OUT THE CHINESE PEOPLE, SUNK AND DECIMATED HIS OWN COUNTRY'S NAVY, AND NEGOTIATED UNNECESSARY CONCESSIONS FAVORING JAPAN THAT INCLUDED TAIWAN, WHICH MANY OFFICIALS IN THE QING GOVERNMENT ARGUED WAS UNRELATED TO THE KOREAN THEATER OF CONFLICT AND THE DEFEAT OF CHINA AT THE YELLOW SEA.  AS LONG AS CHINA AND TAIWAN HAVE SUCH PERSONS IN OFFICE, IT CANNOT BUT LOSE TO JAPAN IN EVERY CONTEST, AT EVERY PLACE AND TIME.  PRESIDENT MA YINGJEOU BECOMES PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FAILED FALSE FLAG OPERATION IF HE DOES NOT REMOVE THESE JAPANESE OPERATIVES IN HIS OWN GOVERNMENT.



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Post time 2014-1-2 17:47:34 |Display all floors
THE JANUARY 1, 2014, FAILED BALLOON LANDING INCIDENT AT DIAOYDUAO IS INDEED BALLOONING INTO A MAJOR INCIDENT OF JAPANESE INTERFERENCE IN CHINA'S DOMESTIC AFFAIRS.

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