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Abe Accepts China's Offer That Cannot Be Refused [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-12-8 16:05:14 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-8 16:50

We have to credit the British for their help in facilitating the most dramatic volte face in international power politics.  This is one thing I like about the British.  They keep their promises.

Part I was the immediate "signal" from Washington on December 4, 2013, even as Xi and Biden were dueling with ideas and words, that the concept of an ADIZ by China is nothing alarming at all, but rather mundane, key to its role in Asia being a well defined set of rules of interaction between China and the aircrafts of other countries, "even if the US does not recognize China's ADIZ" (whatever the phrase may mean, as long as the understanding is established).

Part II is the sudden public statement of Abe on December 7, 2013, that he would like to meet with Xi to discuss their problems, without specifying that Diaoyudao/Senkaku is off-limits as his aides and he himself have often conditioned such a meeting on.  This is what Abe said,  “The relationship between Japan and China is one that can never be severed.  We both need each other. Even if we have a problem, we should not allow it to control the whole relationship.”

It is time for China and Japan to sit down and discuss their dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyudao/Senkaku.

This, however, should be officially entered into the agenda of the leaders.  The sooner the better.  Good luck!


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Post time 2013-12-8 16:50:41 |Display all floors
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Writer's real name is Lau Guan Kim.  lau_guan_kim is for commentary and analysis. He writes also under another alter ego jinseng. I will respond to good reasoned debate. Mudslingers shall be ignored. What I do not like are ignorance, stupidity, chauvinism and bigotry. The other party has as much right as I have until it resorts to insults and nuisance.

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Post time 2013-12-8 16:54:24 |Display all floors
Yes, we need a lot of luck. May there be peace again. I personally think we cannot go back to the days where fishermen from all affected countries can fish and make a livelihood peacefully again. All that changed because Japan started claiming ownership of the island.
If China and Japan can discuss and restrain and let time heal the wounds there might be some hope.

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Post time 2013-12-8 18:03:58 |Display all floors
You refer to an interview that he has given on Friday evening? Nothing surprising, nothing new, just a repetition of the same bs as usual. His statements were so "important" that no major news agency did report about it. That tells us something, doesn't it?

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Post time 2013-12-8 18:23:22 |Display all floors
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Writer's real name is Lau Guan Kim.  lau_guan_kim is for commentary and analysis. He writes also under another alter ego jinseng. I will respond to good reasoned debate. Mudslingers shall be ignored. What I do not like are ignorance, stupidity, chauvinism and bigotry. The other party has as much right as I have until it resorts to insults and nuisance.

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Post time 2013-12-9 12:53:18 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-9 13:23
satsu_jin Post time: 2013-12-8 18:03
You refer to an interview that he has given on Friday evening? Nothing surprising, nothing new, just ...

That the western media does not cover it actually may make it sound a little more authentic, because censorship in the western media through denial of service by its major news outlets is the norm, but all the posts above are well taken, because Abe has not clarified what "problems" he intends to discuss with Xi during the so-called "summit".  As I mentioned in my article, the topic of the status of Diaoyudao must be officially entered into the agenda of the meeting, and the lack of any further followup by Japan on this announcement suggests it probably was insincere, and used merely to create an impression that Abe was "willing to negotiate" except over the sovereignty of Diaoyudao/Senkaku.

Having talks is better than having a war, but having a war is better than having no talks, so the logic of the offer is that if Japan does not accept a talk over the sovereign status of Dioayudao, then China proceeds to interdict all Japanese military planes that enter the sovereign airspace of Diaoyudao to intercept Chinese patrol planes.  

No doubt, Japan will next field a larger squadron with its allies war planes accompanying it, to challenge China's claim of sovereignty over the airspace of Diaoyudao.  And if China tries to outdo this, a still greater force will be sent to Dioayudao.  The aim of this escalation is to lure the bulk of China's best pilots and planes into Dioayudao for total destruction.

China's response to such escalation, Japan and allies fear, may not be a local tit-for-tat.  Rather, China might decide to reserve its best pilots and planes for the aftermath of a total assault on the Japanese mainland with strategic weapons, to defend its many cities and bases instead.  If so, what Japan hopes to be a trap for China may turn out to be her total destruction.  Indeed, why should China waste so many lives and so many planes over a few islands in the East China Sea?  These pilots and planes are better used to defend her own mainland from a counter-attack by her foes.

Thus, the war will be decided, most likely, within a few hours, not days, weeks, or months.

If attacked in return, China will then retaliate en force, all the while using her planes, ships, and tanks for local defense, instead of what Japan hopes, for the uncertain reward of victory in a conventional war stacked against China.  China's path to victory is strategically based, not tactically based.  Her defense is based on both strategic deterrence and overwhelming local superiority of tactical forces.

At any rate, if Japan does not accept direct talks with China on the sovereignty of Senkaku/Diaoyudao, it would have lost its last chance for a peaceful resolution of the dispute.   What follows when China sends its air patrols is a series of forced moves on the part of Japan and its Allies that will lead to the total destruction of Japan, and then some.  China's other strategic assets, aircraft carrier, and advanced fleets of planes will still be there, for the real defense.




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Post time 2013-12-9 13:17:25 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-9 13:19
lau_guan_kim Post time: 2013-12-8 18:23
You have something there.

I searched for the news bu tonly Abe wishes to meet Xi Jinping based on ...

Sun Zi taught, always give your opponent a chance to back down peacefully.  Getting him to accept your proposition is the goal of every conflict, not the physical destruction of your enemy.  But, as any warrior can confirm, sometimes the enemy chooses its own destruction, which then becomes the alternate, though less desirable, reality.  It is certainly much better to have Japan as a prosperous but unaggressive neighbor than to have no Japan at all.  Its productivity benefits not just Japan itself, but China as well.  Hopefully, Abe sees the dispute in this light, but deception is the ingrained habit of the Japanese leadership, and therefore, China must view this acceptance of her offer of talks as a DECEPTION first of all, and only as a genuine change of heart when Japan proves it by its further actions.

As of this moment, the clock continues to tick toward the final chime, when in an instant, the "ugly frog" of western fairy tales, is transformed into a handsome prince -- when China finally enforces the terms of the Instrument of Surrender of the Japanese Empire, signed by Japan's official representatives, on September 2, 1945 -- that Japan must give up all the territories it took from its neighbors by violence and greed, first of which was, in fact, Dioayudao.

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