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This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-12-9 13:23|
satsu_jin Post time: 2013-12-8 18:03
You refer to an interview that he has given on Friday evening? Nothing surprising, nothing new, just ...
That the western media does not cover it actually may make it sound a little more authentic, because censorship in the western media through denial of service by its major news outlets is the norm, but all the posts above are well taken, because Abe has not clarified what "problems" he intends to discuss with Xi during the so-called "summit". As I mentioned in my article, the topic of the status of Diaoyudao must be officially entered into the agenda of the meeting, and the lack of any further followup by Japan on this announcement suggests it probably was insincere, and used merely to create an impression that Abe was "willing to negotiate" except over the sovereignty of Diaoyudao/Senkaku.
Having talks is better than having a war, but having a war is better than having no talks, so the logic of the offer is that if Japan does not accept a talk over the sovereign status of Dioayudao, then China proceeds to interdict all Japanese military planes that enter the sovereign airspace of Diaoyudao to intercept Chinese patrol planes.
No doubt, Japan will next field a larger squadron with its allies war planes accompanying it, to challenge China's claim of sovereignty over the airspace of Diaoyudao. And if China tries to outdo this, a still greater force will be sent to Dioayudao. The aim of this escalation is to lure the bulk of China's best pilots and planes into Dioayudao for total destruction.
China's response to such escalation, Japan and allies fear, may not be a local tit-for-tat. Rather, China might decide to reserve its best pilots and planes for the aftermath of a total assault on the Japanese mainland with strategic weapons, to defend its many cities and bases instead. If so, what Japan hopes to be a trap for China may turn out to be her total destruction. Indeed, why should China waste so many lives and so many planes over a few islands in the East China Sea? These pilots and planes are better used to defend her own mainland from a counter-attack by her foes.
Thus, the war will be decided, most likely, within a few hours, not days, weeks, or months.
If attacked in return, China will then retaliate en force, all the while using her planes, ships, and tanks for local defense, instead of what Japan hopes, for the uncertain reward of victory in a conventional war stacked against China. China's path to victory is strategically based, not tactically based. Her defense is based on both strategic deterrence and overwhelming local superiority of tactical forces.
At any rate, if Japan does not accept direct talks with China on the sovereignty of Senkaku/Diaoyudao, it would have lost its last chance for a peaceful resolution of the dispute. What follows when China sends its air patrols is a series of forced moves on the part of Japan and its Allies that will lead to the total destruction of Japan, and then some. China's other strategic assets, aircraft carrier, and advanced fleets of planes will still be there, for the real defense.