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What Do China and North Korea Owe Each Other? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-4-21 13:38:41 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-4-21 13:43

We read a lot about how quarrelsome North Korea has become an albatross around the neck of China, and that China should punish, cut off, or even encourage others to punish North Korea.  All of this may make sense from the point of view of China trying to appease the very countries that have encouraged Japan to steal its sovereign islands of Diaoyudao, its sovereign islands in the South China Sea, and even its sovereign land of Tibet and Xinjiang.  China does not want anybody to rock the boat it wants very much to be riding in.

But China knows that North Korea has been protecting China by virtue of its location, even if not by virtue of its desire to do so.  Without North Korea, Beijing would be one of the most dangerous places for China to put its seat of government, as it could be invaded from the East through Korea, South through the Yellow Sea, and North through Mongolia.  And it has only one direction of retreat, west to Xian.  So, for all the trouble that North Korea has given China, China has no choice but to protect the North Korea that in reality is as much protecting China as China is protecting North Korea.

This quid pro quo exchange was actually quite even.  Each side needed the other side.  Each side offered indispensable protection to the other side.  Therefore, it is unlikely for China to ever abandon North Korea.  

That being the case, the best solution for the present predicament is for North Korea and the Alliance to come to an agreement of peace for disarmament, which is, that North Korea, like Japan, shall be allowed to have peaceful use nuclear reactors to create energy, while accepting UN inspection to ensure it does not make nuclear weapons.  In return, the Alliance should agree to not invade, besiege, or sanction this hermit kingdom.  No regime change by force.  The pretext that it must be changed by force is contradicted by the fact that it would have changed itself far quicker by peace and trade.  Containment and conflict makes many industries wealthier, but they do not achieve lasting peace any faster or cheaper.

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Post time 2013-4-21 19:03:53 |Display all floors
What a remarkable story. Who would want to invade China and why? If China cuts links and NK collapses it will be it's fleeing starving citizens who will invade.

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Post time 2013-4-22 04:35:35 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-4-22 04:37

"Who would want to invade China and why?"

Hmm, where do I begin, to tell the story of how great this love for China's vast spaces can be?  The sweet love story that is older than the sea.  The simple truth about the wars you brought to me?

Where do I start?

With your first salvo, you brought a meanness to this happy world of mine . . . 1839 . . . The First Opium War.

Where do I end?


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Post time 2013-4-22 04:56:25 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-4-22 05:24

AT ANY RATE, CHINA SHOULD NOT GIVE NORTH KOREA A BLANK CHECK FOR EVERYTHING IT WISHES TO SAY OR DO.

North Korea is showing its true colors by refusing to back down on its nuclear weaponization program.  With such an unstable leadership as it has, some humanitarian catastrophe is unavoidable once it weaponizes its nuclear technology.  Either it agrees to disarmament in exchange for a peace guarantee, or the UN must go back in to remove this cancer of nuclear proliferation that threatens everyone, including China (eventually).

It is unfortunate that Obama chose to pivot with weapons into Asia, right onto China's doorsteps, and back Japan's illegal seizure of Dioayudao with nuclear implications.  Bush would have gotten China to help instead in denuclearizing North Korea and turn China into a friend.  But with Kerry and Hagel in charge, there is a chance for China and America to achieve a second Entente, like the Kissinger-Zhou entente of 1972.  It will take ten times more forces to successfully pivot into Asia than Obama anticipated.  And if it fails, US influence in Asia will collapse like a house of cards.  An entente on the other hand costs almost nothing, and has a 99% chance of preserving US interests in Asia without any bloodshed.   Maybe because it costs so iittle, it will have also very little support in Congress too, as none of their sponsors and donors will get anything out of such a peace.  The only beneficiary would be the average American, and that clearly is not enough to make the grade for an Act of Congress.

However, China will not give the green light to any UN action, until Japan returns Diaoyudao to China, because otherwise, China will find itself painted into a corner by the collapse of North Korea, and it is not that stupid to do this to itself.


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