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Forecast for global issues in 2013 [Copy link] 中文

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The world will continue to face both hopes and challenges in 2013. Which issues are most likely to see significant changes in 2013? What influence will the changes bring?

Will the regime of Bashar al-Assad be overthrown?

Origin: The conflict between Syrian government and anti-government armed force has resulted in tens of thousands of people losing their lives. At present, both sides end in a deadlock, but the anti-government armed force is on the rise with the support of some Western and Arabian countries. In addition, some Syrian government and military officials tergiversated one after another and a lot of people became refugees due to shortage of goods and materials and aggravated inflation. All the reasons may lead to the downfall of the current Syrian regime in 2013.

Consequence: Once the current Syrian regime is subverted, it will be difficult for the country to stabilize quickly. Instead, such problems as the conflicts between parties and religious sects, acts of terrorism, economic stagnation and refugees will drag Syria to turbulent situation and bring negative influence to its neighboring countries, meanwhile triggering sharper geopolitical struggles.

Prospect: Although the current Syrian government is faced with the danger of being subverted, the international community still makes mediation efforts.


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Post time 2013-1-6 16:05:20 |Display all floors
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Will the military conflict between Israel and Iran be avoided?

Origin: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had recently said that he will take stopping Iran's nuclear program as his first task if he is reelected for a second term. The international community is also worried about whether the nuclear program of Iran will lead to a military conflict.

Consequence: It will bring an unpredictable consequence if Israel launches a military strike against Iran because although Israel has advanced weaponry and the support of Western countries led by the United States, Iran also has a military strength that cannot be overlooked. Once a military conflict breaks between Iran and Israel, it will involve the neighboring countries and even some Western countries.

Prospect: Israel faces various constraints though it refused to rule out the possibility of military action against Iran. For example, the United States and Europe explicitly opposed Iran to cross the threshold of nuclear weapons, but they did not set a red line on the nuclear issue of Iran. At present, some countries and even some domestic political forces of Israel are cautious and optimistic about a negotiated settlement of Iranian nuclear issue.


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Post time 2013-1-6 16:05:41 |Display all floors
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Will Shinzo Abe achieve the intention of amending Japanese constitution?

Origin: Japan's president of ruling Liberal Democratic Party and newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed to amend the Constitution of Japan (also called Peace Constitution) in the election platform recently held by the Japanese House of Representatives, and change the Self-Defense Force into national defense force and to allow it exercise the right of collective self-defense. According to survey of the Kyodo News Agency of Japan before the election, more than two-thirds of the newly elected members of the House of Representatives agreed to amend the relevant provisions of the Peace Constitution and over 80 percent of them approved to exercise the right of collective self-defense.

Consequence: In recent years, Japan tends to get rid of the post-war system and deny peaceful development, which caused high degree of vigilance of Asian countries and the international community. the Peace Constitution amended by Japan after the Second World War is an important factor to keep peace and stability in Asia and the amendment of it will seriously affect the stability of Asia.

Prospect: Many peace-loving Japanese people especially those who have lived through the Second World War are opposed to constitutional amendment, and even the New Komeito Party, ally of the Liberal Democratic Party, also made it clear that it opposed to exercise the right of collective self-defense.


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Post time 2013-1-6 16:06:22 |Display all floors
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Will inter-Korean relations turn around?

Origin: The president-elect of South Korea Park Geun-hye had said during the presidential campaign that she will take the promotion of inter-Korean reunification as the focus of foreign and security policies. She hoped to meet with the leader of North Korea to ease the military confrontation and restart the six-party talks through substantial dialogues.

Consequence: If the inter-Korean relationship changes in a positive way in 2013, it will not only benefit both the two countries but also have a positive effect on the security and economic development of Northeast Asia and even the whole Asia.

Prospect: The inter-Korean relationship is very likely to turn around not just because of Park Geun-hye's positive attitude, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also called on to ease the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula and implement the joint declaration reached previously in a New Year's speech.


Source: People's Daily Online

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Post time 2013-1-6 16:59:36 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Revolutionar at 2013-1-6 17:00

Better still


Will the fat cat Chinese banks survive since nobody repays their loans?


I mean, no VIPs repays their loans.
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2013-1-6 17:05:31 |Display all floors
Revolutionar Post time: 2013-1-6 16:59
Better still

Really, I did not know this.

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Post time 2013-1-6 17:06:04 |Display all floors
It will be a very interesting year  2013

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