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Post time 2012-11-5 19:29:24 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-11-6 11:05

Japan should think twice before it gets deeper into this escalating fight with a China that is reluctant to go to war with it, except for the fact that Japan is stepping on China's toes, literally speaking.

Japan should not win the Naval Battle of Senkaku/Diaoyudao for the simple reason that no Chinese government can allow Japan to both defeat its navy, decimate its ranks, and still keep Diaoyudao as its war booty.  If Japan wipes out the PLAN over Diaoyudao, then China is 100% certain to take the war to Japan's mainland, and without ships, or sufficient air power, it can only be similar to Truman's solution, an ultimate form of warfare, in which Japan will suffer a hundred times more casualties and destruction than it lucked out on not sustaining in WWII, because Truman had only two nuclear devices he could use.  A Japanese victory in Diaoyudao can only come at the cost of immense losses of lives and ships by China.  And it will spell the doom of Japan, no matter what kind of protection it believes it has.

If Japan should not win the Battle of Senkaku/Diaoyudao, then Japan must not fight it at all.  What is the point of fighting for something you should not try to win, out of consideration for the worse consequences of winning?  And if Japan should not even fight over Diaoyudao, then it should seek for an honorable and profitable way to give Diaoyudao back to China.

This logic is absolutely irrefutable.

At this point, Japan should realize that prudence is the greater part of valor, and should seek a way to surrender Diaoyudao to China while getting goodwill concessions from China, such as the following:

  • Utilizing the Golden Mean as guide, in return for Japan surrendering Diaoyudao to China, China will grant Japan the rights to 38% of the mineral and oil deposits within 200 miles of Diaoyudao.
  • Of the remaining 62%, China will take 62% of its resources, i.e., 38% of the entire 200-mile EEZ from Diaoyudao.
  • Taiwan will then receive the remaining 24% of the mineral and oil resources of the region.
  • Fishing rights are different.  This will be split between China and Taiwan in a 50-50  manner.
  • This deal will be open only for the next three weeks.

The alternative, as the Potsdam Proclamation put is, is "prompt and utter destruction" that China does not relinquish doing but will be forced to do in order to save its forces spread out over the East China Sea from being attacked.

Japan should take a hold of reality and stop fantasizing one victory after another.  Diaoyu is a battle he should not think of winning, and therefore should never be fought.  And if so, negotiating the terms of a peaceful withdrawal should be Japan's highest order of business.

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Post time 2012-11-6 10:48:24 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-11-6 10:52


A sign that a higher intelligence has finally surfaced to the top, telling his countrymen that "winning Senkaku (meaning pinnacle islands) is like Japan falling on its own sword" or better yet, in Chinese, that "swallowing Diaoyudao is like a fish being fatally hooked onto a bait it can never free itself from".

In war, there are territories one must never capture nor defend, but must let go of, if the rest of the army is to survive.  Knowing what not to do is harder than knowing or thinking one knows of what to do.  Diaoyudao is like a puffer fish that is also a bait.  It was left dangling in front of the hungry eyes of the Japanese people in 1971, which if swallowed will surely bring Japan to a catastrophic war worse than August 6, 1945, in which Japan cannot let go of Diaoyudao, and China cannot let go of Japan, in a spiral to the bottom of the sea.  And of course, needless to say, China will emerge victorious, even if at great cost to its navy, air force, and civilians, as well as to its economic development.  Noda was foolish enough to think he can bite off Diaoyudao from China and enjoy his meal.  How mistaken he was can be seen in how difficult it is for him to swallow it at all, and yet, Diaoyudao remains like a hook embedded in his cheek, with a tasty bait still begging him to swallow it, but with the certainty that if he forcibly swallows the hook and the bait, Japan will pay a price equal to its existence, as China will never let go of Diaoyudao, regardless of whatever threats are thrown at her.

Japan is saying basically, "I don't think I want to take over Diaoyudao" or "I don't want to fall on the sword of Senkaku", despite all the encouragement it is getting from its allies, "Go for it!  You can do it!  Just do it!"  Poor Noda is at a loss.  This is not the situation he dreamed Japan will end up at after it nationalized China's Diaoyudao.  He has got the hook and the bait attached firmly inside his mouth as a fish would have experienced.  And he cannot get away from his bait and hook either.

Whoever named "Diaoyudao" has the prescience of a Zhuge Liang.  It has become the hook and bait by which the Japanese empire will be drawn to its nuclear guillotine, at the hands of China, the most pitiful victim of Japanese brutality from 1937 to 1945.  It is not called "Fishing Island" for nothing.  It caught the Japanese Mako Shark that nearly escaped its fate in 1945, and brought it back to the chopping block in 2012.

Now is the time for Japan to truly reflect upon the abysmal inhumanity ingrained in its history of the past 150 years, and make a true act of repentance, or the alternative, is for Japan to continue to pursue its militarist adventurism, get into a big fight with China over Diaoyudao, only to eventually pay the ultimate price, as China will not let Japan get away with killing any more Chinese on Chinese waters or islands.  Any victory Japan will enjoy on Diaoyu will be even shorter than its one year of irrational exuberance from 1941 to 1942.  After that, Japan will have nowhere to go or to turn to but to the fire and brimstone where its many, many war criminals currently are paying for their grievous sins.  If Japan refuses to learn from history, it will be forced to repeat it, and this time around, China will not be limited by a limited stockpile of strategic weapons, and thus the outcome will be extremely, extremely catastrophic for Japan.

In Buddhism, we have a saying, "Turn back and it's land".  But Japan insists it wants to live the Western way of militarism, and perish in the way of Western militarism, since it has "Left Asia" for Europe more than a hundred years ago.  

Yes, Japan is now so far from the Asian mainland, it is doubtful it can find its way back, or wish to turn its head to look at the shore behind.  But someone in Japan has finally reached the top, just in time, to turn the head of Noda back to China.  This fellow told Noda, " 回头是岸 “。

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Post time 2012-11-6 11:19:07 |Display all floors
Children must play.

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Post time 2012-11-6 11:32:57 |Display all floors
grb Post time: 2012-11-6 11:19
Children must play.

Japan is like a child playing with fire, and realizes his house, his barn, and his clothes are beginning to catch fire.  Attacking Diaoyudao is like plucking hair from the head of a tiger.  And this one is wide awake even.

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