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Who Owns the Real "OCTOBER SURPRISE"? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2012-10-10 12:59:35 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2012-10-10 15:22


Of course, there is a dispute.  Why else in the world is China sending its marine surveillance ships to Diaoyu island's waters?  But is acknowledging there is a dispute enough concession to China?  Surprisingly, the answer to some Chinese "pundits" may be "Yes! Hurrah, we have won!  Japan acknowledges there is a dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyu island."  But further analysis shows this celebration is naive and premature, because Japan continues to assert that "there is no question regarding the sovereignty of Japan" over China's Diaoyu island.  So, what on earth is Japan trying to achieve?

What Japan is really doing is trying to avoid an Obama win in the election!  

Any war that is started before the election becomes the "OCTOBER SURPRISE" which will make Obama look really good as a commander-in-chief in standing up to China.  Japan prefers Romney to Obama, so it wants to postpone, not avoid, its military showdown with China.  Its fake peace initiative actually reveals that it knows that the US will go head to head with China once Japan and China are at war over Diaoyu island.  Since this is the Japanese understanding, any war with China will necessarily make Obama look good, and foil Romney's bid.

Two premises are implied by Japan's diplomatic faux pas:

1.  That the US navy will automatically intervene in any conflict involving Diaoyu island, possibly without even involving any permission from the White House, according to some rules of engagement already put in place.  As such, it would not likely involve any strategic weapons, but more likely involve sensational logistical and tactical support.  Even so, it would be substantial and telling, enough to fill the front pages of all the newspapers for weeks on end.

2.  This automatic engagement of the US navy against the Chinese navy will re-elect Obama into his next term, which the rightwing Japanese government does not want to see.

Only one conclusion remains therefore:

That China might immediately take over Diaoyu island with its fishermen and activist civilians, preferably from Taiwan or Hongkong, and when the Japanese coast thugs try to assault and arrest them, the Chinese coast guard will then intervene, which forces the Japanese Navy, Chinese Navy, and US Navy to intervene in short order.  Obama will thus win the election.

Of course, if China prefers Romney, it will play along with Japan and postpone any military conflict with Japan until after the election, to give Romney the greatest chance of winning, before it retakes Diaoyu island.

It looks like Japan may be inadvertently allowing China to choose the winner in the next US presidential election.  But China may time its retaking of Diaoyu according to its domestic schedule and be totally indifferent to either candidate.  In that case, it would act after the US election and China's own 18th Party Congress of Nov 9th.

If so, Obama's "Pivot to Asia" may end rather quickly, and Romney may prefer to pivot out of Asia, and let Japan and China slug it out while America focuses on its traditional areas of interest, such as the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the so-called "Great Game".   Japan will have its wish of Romney winning, but Romney may take the advice of General Bradley and George Marshall, that any war over Diaoyu/Senkaku is really stupid, even more stupid than the Korean War, as it would be a war, yeah, even a WORLD WAR at the wrong place, at the wrong time, and with the wrong enemy -- over three uninhabitable rocks.

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