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Trade war. Who will win, China or US?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2012-5-25 17:38:46 |Display all floors
With the Republicans screaming about China and blaming them for everything bad in the US, I wonder if it came down to it, who would win in a "Trade War"?

The US has more economic might, but China has the work force. I can't imagine what would happen in the US if trade is cut. Walmart would have have to close its doors. Many Americans would lose work and China would no longer buy US bonds. In the long run, Americans would lose.

America should not bite the hands the feeds them.
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Post time 2012-5-25 17:52:34 |Display all floors
In the long run Walmart would source alternative products, the cheap manufacturers would move to Vietnam and Brazil and China would lose.

Some manufacturers may even return to the US - trade balance would be restored and China's purchase of bonds would be unnecessary.

China should not bite the hand that feeds them.

Be careful what you wish for.

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:02:22 |Display all floors
in any trade war between US and China, it will be the Queen Bees in Beijing who will blink first.


The queen bees in Beijing and their families will be hurt directly and immediately

I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:06:01 |Display all floors
verdane Post time: 2012-5-25 17:52
In the long run Walmart would source alternative products, the cheap manufacturers would move to Vie ...

America depends on Chinese products, more than China depends on US.
America depends on Chinese buyers of cars.
America depends on China to buy bonds.

It would be foolish for the US to pull the trigger on a trade war

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:07:51 |Display all floors
Revolutionar Post time: 2012-5-25 18:02
in any trade war between US and China, it will be the Queen Bees in Beijing who will blink first.

...

So would big business in the US (even more so).
Point?

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:15:02 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2012-5-25 18:07
So would big business in the US (even more so).
Point?

yes, big business will get hurt..................



but the point is :


if there is a trade war, it must be because it makes sense to the voters in America.

who will be blink first is not about US or China...................................


but about who in the decision making process gets hurt first. and, equally important, who benefits.
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:31:20 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2012-5-25 18:06
America depends on Chinese products, more than China depends on US.
America depends on Chinese buy ...

Its a fallacy to say the US "depends" on products. The products you are referring to for the most part are not essential - there would be a period of adjustment as the US retails source alternative producers - and existing producers would eventually be forced to relocate.

As China's internal market is still not fully developed the loss of export markets would cause massive problems - unless China can grow domestically at a very rapid rate (this in itself will cause inflation issues on a huge scale).

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