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MisterPanda Post time: 2011-12-4 01:23
Excuse me to believe a world renowned geostratege over a singapore student...
Anyways, quantity doe ...
Quantity vs quality:
Not really. Both properties are essential for a country's survival.
For example if say only 10% is given as the survival rate for the various means of delivery, and I believe we must take this figure into account because of the following...
[We must allow missile shields/abm systems the benefit of the doubt and assume that it does and can do what it was designed to do and, we must allow for margins of error, i.e., mechanical failures, strays, miss's etc.; to take its toll 10% is my guesstimate for the survival rate.]
Given the above, and if as western whishy washy claims that we have only 300 nukes, the computation/audit would break then it down like this: 1/4 for theater/battle field operations; 1/4 for short range (coastal) operations; 1/4 to serve as 2-3000 mile intermediate range deterrence's; and the remainder in the intercontinental range deterrences category and, if with only 10% of this number is survivable, that would give us roughly 2.5 - 3 only missiles that's capable of serving truly as deterrence. Not very deterring if you ask me?
And, for this General to so confidently state that hundreds of cities would be destroyed in return if China was attacked, I will have to assume then that his message is from the very top (otherwise heads will roll in China for making such stupid statements) and that, my opinion, is in no uncertain terms China's way of saying she have what it takes to do it if forces upon her.
Hence 10% of 2500 is 250 or, 10% of 5000 is 500, and you break the latter down into 1/4's, the logical calculations confirms or balances out the numbers [hundreds of cities will be destroyed in return if China is under direct attack] that this Chinese General had stated.
I suspect that that was the whole idea/strategy behind the USSR's 10,000 nuke inventory philosophy from way back... She have to put the US, Western Europe (NATO), and she have to put China into the nuke equation, 10,000 nukes hence is not at all an overkill.