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The Tiger Argument [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-8-29 21:48:23 |Display all floors
Hey guys, I posted this on my blog a few days ago, as a response to people emailing me their questions about the political situation in China. Please forgive me for taking the liberty to post it here as well. I am interested in your thoughts on the matter!
(www.thelongestway.com)

The Tiger Argument

Everyone can be afraid sometimes, even countries, and even if they are really big.

Traditional fears

If we can agree to generalize a bit, then the rulers of Ancient China basically knew three major fears:

the barbarians (mostly from the North)
natural calamities (like the Yellow River (黄河) changing its course)
and – most importantly – peasant uprisings
Of course these three scenarios were often interdependent, with a combination of 1 and 2 eventually leading to 3.

Modern fears

Even today, these fears are still there.

Ever since the massive influx of the “devils from overseas” (洋鬼子) in the 19th century, China has experienced the trauma of being kicked around by foreign powers.
The environment is obviously on the verge of collapse in many regions, with clean water and clean air becoming more and more of a luxury.
There are as many as 200 “mass incidents” (群体性事件) throughout the country – per day. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we are talking about actual rioting, but it is still a force to be reckoned with.

Like a tiger.

There is a Chinese proverb that describes the present political situation pretty accurately:

骑虎难下 (qíhǔnánxià – “If you are riding a tiger, then it’s hard to dismount”).

Because progress is irreversible

There is only one direction that China can go: forward. For the last thirty years, progress (发展) has been the CCP’s top doctrine, and it has in fact greatly improved the lives of hundreds of millions of people. However, it has also brought a vast amount of foreign influences (1), environmental problems (2), and a force of approximately 200 million migrant workers (3) along with it.

(1) What do you do with foreigners who annoy you?

China isn’t North Korea. Ever since she has mounted the tiger some 30 years ago, she hasn’t been able to shy away from the outside world anymore. And while most people from abroad are more or less warmly welcomed, others are in fact considered threatening. There are foreigners who seem to be agitating the population, foreigners who propagate secessionism, and even foreigners who walk around remote areas and get into arguments with the police.

It’s a thin line between safeguarding political stability and making everybody feel uncomfortable. And while the country’s progress strongly depends on international trade and exchange of ideas, there is just no way to invite only investors and engineers and kick everybody out who messes with your tiger.

(2) What do you do if the land dries up?

However, foreign influences seem pretty harmless compared to the scenario of a major environmental disaster. What if the Yellow River completely fails to reach the province of Shandong (山东) one day? Or if a major industrial spill renders a densely populated part of the country inhabitable? If the air becomes too polluted for families to raise their children?

Again, the government can only try to exert damage control. Of course it would be a great idea to go ahead and modernize all of the country’s factories, simply because they are currently wasting way too much energy and resources. But what if this meant that Chinese products got too expensive on the international markets? Wouldn’t that mean crippling progress and making the tiger angry?

(3) How do you keep 200 million migrant workers happy?

And this is the most scary part: 200 million migrant workers. Even if this estimate isn’t very accurate, the total number is probably still much higher than the population of any given European country. These migrant workers have left their homes behind and come to the cities to claim their share of an idea called progress. They don’t ask for much, but you can’t leave them with nothing either.

So they are given things to build: high rises, flyovers, bridges, roads, tunnels, railroads, and so on. The migrant workers are everywhere, and they can never stop building, or else they would get seriously unhappy. Ever wondered why Chinese construction quality often seems to be so flawed? Well, maybe some of those things were never built to last anyway, but rather built for the sake of building. To keep the tiger busy.

So where is all this going?

Of the three fears, I think the first one can be overcome most easily. Foreigners are just not as influential to Chinese society as they themselves would like to believe, and there will always be ways to deal with them. But if the environmental problems are not kept under control, and if there is no way to reincorporate the migrant workers into society and generate a domestic market that can support a sort of “sensible progress” on its own, then things don’t look too bright for this tiger ride.

Would you be prepared to dismount and look it in the eye?

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Post time 2011-8-30 03:56:09 |Display all floors
an interesting post
our life is full of sunshine

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Post time 2011-8-30 04:15:34 |Display all floors
A small village, my hometown, located in Jiaodong peninsula.

The river nearby flowing by the local city to Huang Sea turned dark and the fishes were nearly died out in 1990s.
Now, the water in that river became clear and people began to catch fishes again.

In the local country-town (county) city, the pollution was actually relieved from a few of years ago.
I heard a lot from my families.

However, sth still goes worse.
In my childhood, the local drinking water taste sweet. The sweet disappeared many years ago and has never come back again so far.
Local people have to dig the well deeper and deeper for enough drinking water now - too less drinking water resources -, though less people there than before, many people moved to cities. Tap water is available only in 2 or 3 hours of the morning.

[ Last edited by 468259058 at 2011-8-30 04:16 AM ]
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Post time 2011-8-30 04:28:42 |Display all floors
Originally posted by ChristophR at 2011-8-29 21:48
Fears

fears?

For example:

Whether it is right to build a monument for Japanese invaders? Someone said it wrong. Someone said it is right. We can debate and discuss a lot. But Chinese Fangzheng municipal government build and keep the monuments and cemetery of Japanese invaders very well while Chinese Fangzheng municipal government left the monuments and cemetery of Chinese heroes and the Former Soviet Union soldiers in WW2 deserted.

Do you fear that there is sth wrong in Chinese present culture and moral practices?
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Post time 2011-8-30 04:48:48 |Display all floors
China is still a half military country.

For example:
Liu Shaoqi had ever been the president of PRC during the late 1950s. Mao Zedong was the military leader that time.
Li Xiannian had ever been the president of PRC in the early 1980s. Hu Y-a-o--b-a-n-g was the secretary of CPC central committee and Deng Xiaoping was the military leader that time.
The military leader, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, were our country's leaders, not the president, not the number 1 leader of CPC party.
It is true till today.


For example:
Policies like commands. People don't know the regulations until regulations are published. No discussion before the publication.

For example:
Official "S"election, not election.

Military countries have a high efficiency with a high potential risk.

High efficiency is our advantage while the high potential risk is our fear.
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Post time 2011-8-30 04:50:00 |Display all floors

tl;dr Dragon Argumente? is that something like

Chewbacca Defense?
您买象牙 - 您杀了大象!
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU1Nzg0NDky.html - “用现代文明标准比划中国人,是严重的种族歧视行为。”
„Ich ficke wo, wen, und wann ich will, hast du mich verstanden. Auch du könntest ficken, aber du kannst es ja gar nicht, deine deutsche Genauigkeit... verbietet es dir“. Jean-Claude Juncker

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Post time 2011-8-30 05:07:14 |Display all floors
poster location according to profile: Munich
his IP Location at creation of Blog: Kempten
something off

Blogs, and more so Bloggers, such anyway.
您买象牙 - 您杀了大象!
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU1Nzg0NDky.html - “用现代文明标准比划中国人,是严重的种族歧视行为。”
„Ich ficke wo, wen, und wann ich will, hast du mich verstanden. Auch du könntest ficken, aber du kannst es ja gar nicht, deine deutsche Genauigkeit... verbietet es dir“. Jean-Claude Juncker

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