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productivity: 8.63 Chinese = 1 American [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-5-15 20:54:53 |Display all floors
1. method of comparison:

American GDP Growth(2008 - 1990)/population

/

Chinese GDP Growth (2008 -1990)/population

+++++++++
this method is from a Chinese forum
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Post time 2011-5-15 20:58:47 |Display all floors
2008 GDP chained (2005) Chinese yuan is the latest datum from the website of NBS of China.

All of the following original data are from the websites of ministries of China and ministries of U.S.
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Post time 2011-5-15 21:01:18 |Display all floors
(2008GDP - 1990 GDP)/population

China:
(1707.0 - 281.7)*26.08129/1707.0 = 21.77 trillion of chained (2005) Chinese yuan
21.77/ 1.37 = 15.89 thousand of chained (2005) Chinese yuan
exchange rate in 2005: 8.1 yuan to one US dollar
15.89/8.1 = 1.96 thousand of chained (2005) US dollars

U.S of A:
13.2288-8.0339 = 5.19 trillions of chained (2005) US dollars
5.19/0.307 = 16.91 thousand of chained (2005) US dollars


+++++++
16.91/1.96 = 8.63

GDP created by 8.63 Chinese during the past 18 years (1990~2008)
= GDP created by 1 American during the same period.
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Post time 2011-5-16 08:41:06 |Display all floors
.S GDP = 14,657,800 in 2010
China GDP = 5,878,257 in 2010
(from IMF)

1.37/0.307= 4.46

14,657*1.03%
5,878,257 * 1.07%

exchange rate is fixed.
Popultion is fixed.
Growth is fixed.

The year of 2033, US GDP = China GDP
The year of 2050, US GDP annual growth per capital = China GDP annual growth per capital
The year of 2073, US GDP per capital = China GDP per capital


2011        155.5        1.03        4.7        0.03        20.8        4.46        67.3        1.07        4.7        0.07
2012        160.2        1.03        4.8        0.03        21.4        4.46        72.0        1.07        5.0        0.07
2013        165.0        1.03        4.9        0.03        22.1        4.46        77.0        1.07        5.4        0.07
2014        169.9        1.03        5.1        0.03        22.7        4.46        82.4        1.07        5.8        0.07
2015        175.0        1.03        5.3        0.03        23.4        4.46        88.2        1.07        6.2        0.07
2016        180.3        1.03        5.4        0.03        24.1        4.46        94.4        1.07        6.6        0.07
2017        185.7        1.03        5.6        0.03        24.8        4.46        101.0        1.07        7.1        0.07
2018        191.2        1.03        5.7        0.03        25.6        4.46        108.1        1.07        7.6        0.07
2019        197.0        1.03        5.9        0.03        26.4        4.46        115.6        1.07        8.1        0.07
2020        202.9        1.03        6.1        0.03        27.1        4.46        123.7        1.07        8.7        0.07
2021        209.0        1.03        6.3        0.03        28.0        4.46        132.4        1.07        9.3        0.07
2022        215.2        1.03        6.5        0.03        28.8        4.46        141.7        1.07        9.9        0.07
2023        221.7        1.03        6.7        0.03        29.7        4.46        151.6        1.07        10.6        0.07
2024        228.4        1.03        6.9        0.03        30.6        4.46        162.2        1.07        11.4        0.07
2025        235.2        1.03        7.1        0.03        31.5        4.46        173.5        1.07        12.1        0.07
2026        242.3        1.03        7.3        0.03        32.4        4.46        185.7        1.07        13.0        0.07
2027        249.5        1.03        7.5        0.03        33.4        4.46        198.7        1.07        13.9        0.07
2028        257.0        1.03        7.7        0.03        34.4        4.46        212.6        1.07        14.9        0.07
2029        264.7        1.03        7.9        0.03        35.4        4.46        227.5        1.07        15.9        0.07
2030        272.7        1.03        8.2        0.03        36.5        4.46        243.4        1.07        17.0        0.07
2031        280.8        1.03        8.4        0.03        37.6        4.46        260.4        1.07        18.2        0.07
2032        289.3        1.03        8.7        0.03        38.7        4.46        278.6        1.07        19.5        0.07
2033        297.9        1.03        8.9        0.03        39.9        4.46        298.2        1.07        20.9        0.07
2034        306.9        1.03        9.2        0.03        41.1        4.46        319.0        1.07        22.3        0.07
2035        316.1        1.03        9.5        0.03        42.3        4.46        341.4        1.07        23.9        0.07
2036        325.6        1.03        9.8        0.03        43.6        4.46        365.3        1.07        25.6        0.07
2037        335.3        1.03        10.1        0.03        44.9        4.46        390.8        1.07        27.4        0.07
2038        345.4        1.03        10.4        0.03        46.2        4.46        418.2        1.07        29.3        0.07
2039        355.8        1.03        10.7        0.03        47.6        4.46        447.4        1.07        31.3        0.07
2040        366.4        1.03        11.0        0.03        49.0        4.46        478.8        1.07        33.5        0.07
2041        377.4        1.03        11.3        0.03        50.5        4.46        512.3        1.07        35.9        0.07
2042        388.8        1.03        11.7        0.03        52.0        4.46        548.1        1.07        38.4        0.07
2043        400.4        1.03        12.0        0.03        53.6        4.46        586.5        1.07        41.1        0.07
2044        412.4        1.03        12.4        0.03        55.2        4.46        627.6        1.07        43.9        0.07
2045        424.8        1.03        12.7        0.03        56.8        4.46        671.5        1.07        47.0        0.07
2046        437.5        1.03        13.1        0.03        58.5        4.46        718.5        1.07        50.3        0.07
2047        450.7        1.03        13.5        0.03        60.3        4.46        768.8        1.07        53.8        0.07
2048        464.2        1.03        13.9        0.03        62.1        4.46        822.6        1.07        57.6        0.07
2049        478.1        1.03        14.3        0.03        64.0        4.46        880.2        1.07        61.6        0.07
2050        492.5        1.03        14.8        0.03        65.9        4.46        941.8        1.07        65.9        0.07
+++++++++++++++++++
2073        971.9        1.03        29.2        0.03        4334.7        4.46        4464.7        1.07        312.5        0.07
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Post time 2011-5-16 08:42:18 |Display all floors
The exchange rate changes:

The population growth:
Although China would change one-child policy in the near future, sth would be improved a little, however, the population of Chinese workers would go down sharply.
The population university graduates would go rising while the population of blue-collar workers would take a plundge.
The population of American workers would be stable.

growth rate:
China's growth rate would definitely be going down as China approaching a developed country.
U.S's growth rate

The drive of growth rate: breakthrough technology, improving productivity in labor cost, in ......

+++++++++++
China is still far leg behind U.S though China's GDP has reached the 2nd place in the world.

[ Last edited by 468259058 at 2011-5-16 08:43 AM ]
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Post time 2011-5-16 08:44:55 |Display all floors

Signifance?

[COUGH}

So many numbers!

Work Force Growth Curve?

Any Technology based modifiers?

Change in agronomic to manufacture modifier effects?
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Post time 2011-5-16 08:45:49 |Display all floors
Why does it compare to an old relatively stable system?
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