Author: cestmoi

The argument for a stronger RMB. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2010-5-12 13:02:27 |Display all floors

Reply #148 Proletariat's post

Of course!
Capital Flight is prefered!

ha ha ha

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Post time 2010-5-12 13:03:17 |Display all floors

.....and foreign direct investments!

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Post time 2010-5-15 23:30:47 |Display all floors
Most smart pro-capitalists will not themselves support a weaker currency:

Here is my case for why a weaker dollar hurts America.

First, a weaker dollar translates into a cut in the real spending power of American consumers--in effect, a reduction in real income.

Second, a weaker dollar weakens the role of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Why should investors and central banks around the world invest in US assets when their value is steadily declining?

Third, the chances of a weaker dollar leading to a sharp reduction in America's trade deficit is highly unlikely since 40% of the current balance is due to oil imports that are denominated in U.S. dollars. An additional 20% is due to trade with China, which is, of course, controlling the value of its own currency.

Fourth, a weaker dollar is inflationary since it increases the cost of imports.

Fifth, business leaders know that discounting prices may bump near-term revenue and profits but at a real cost to long-term profitability, not to mention inflicting damage to the brand name. This is what we are doing to the brand of America by trying to increase exports by lowering their price in the global marketplace. Better to stand firm on price and  into global markets on the basis of what is great about American products: superior quality, innovation and service.

Sixth, investors seem to like a weaker dollar since the profits of American multinationals get a boost from foreign earnings being translated into U.S. dollars. Again this is short-term thinking and vastly overstated since most multinationals have sophisticated treasury departments that hedge currency exposures.

What a weaker dollar really does is to encourage American and international investors to invest in non-American markets. The more the dollar drops, the more global equities rise. Many Asian currencies are hitting record highs against the U.S. dollar.

The Australian dollar has climbed to a 25-year highs, while the Singapore dollar has touched 10-year highs. The Brazilian real, which has jumped 18% in value against the U.S. dollar this year, and the Indian rupee's sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar during the past year, have supercharged U.S. dollar investors' returns in those markets.

According to EPFR Global, investors are pouring money into global funds--with net inflows of $96.94 billion into world equity funds so far in 2007, while taking out $9.6 billion out of U.S. equity funds. Brazil's local stock exchange, the Bovespa, reported that investors have injected $1.2 billion into the market in September alone.

Foreign investors slashed their holdings of U.S. securities by a record amount as the credit squeeze intensified, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. The Treasury said net sales of U.S. market assets--including bonds, notes and equities--were $69.3 billion in August after a revised inflow of $19.5 billion during July. The August outflow exceeded the previous record decline of $21.2 billion in March 1990.

Last and perhaps most importantly, I view a policy of weakening the U.S. dollar to improve America's competitive position as the path of least resistance. ... tfbriefing_inl.html

The entire argument for a weak currency is flimsy. I do not argue this for America, and I do not argue this for China. Especially since America is now very economically dependent on China.

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Post time 2010-5-17 14:39:33 |Display all floors

Reply #151 Proletariat's post

Similarly China cannot afford a weak Rmb.

It needs to protect it's citizens from inflation, help to grow the citizens asset values!
But Rmb rises needs to be in slow increase fashion to allow for MANUFACTURERs adjustments!
Also ensure not feeding the "inflationary instincts" of traders within China!

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Post time 2010-6-20 23:10:10 |Display all floors

A reasonable approach by the PBoC

Originally posted by greendragon at 2010-5-17 14:39
Similarly China cannot afford a weak Rmb.

It needs to protect it's citizens from inflation, help to grow the citizens asset values!
But Rmb rises needs to be in slow increase fashion to allow f ...

A gradual relaxing of the exchange rate.

The discussion has been largely hijacked by those looking at it from the commerce viewpoint, taking a micro-economic view rather than a macro view.  There are benefits for the Chinese economy to relax the exchange rate.

Currency Revaluation to Be Gradual, China Says
Published: June 20, 2010

HONG KONG — The Chinese central bank announced Sunday afternoon that any changes in the value of its currency, the renminbi, would be gradual, in a clear attempt to reassure the Chinese people that a move Saturday evening toward a more flexible currency would not result in a sharp or disruptive change.

The central bank’s statement coincided with signs of a backlash in China, where many view a weak currency and the accompanying strong exports as a sign of national sovereignty. The Chinese decision to tolerate a more flexible currency drew caustic postings on Chinese Internet sites, like one on “I didn’t imagine I would see the day when China would submit to America and agree to appreciation of the renminbi.”

(Cestmoi: China needs to adopt a broad macro-economic viewpoint, it would be disastrous downstream for China to take a blinkered view of the economy. This seems to me to be factional infighting with the commerce side shaping public opinion for a narrow-banded approach.) [/blue]

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