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Why China cannot be over-populated? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2007-3-2 20:11:10 |Display all floors
written by Overpopulation 2007-03-02 09:06

Chinese people must stop overpopulating China. It can cripple China's advancement.

If China cannot feed, educate, and employ all these extra people, China will continue to have hoards of poor people. Thus, China will continue to suffer as a third world nation.

Here is a scenario. If in 2005 China has a wealth of $1 trillion and a population of 1 billion, then China has a per capital wealth is $1000 per person.

If in 2020 China's economy quadruples to $4 trillion and the population grows to 3 billion, China's per capita wealth is ~$1333.33 per person.

However, if in 2020, China has controlled its population growth so that China's population is still only 1 billion, then China's per capita wealth is $4000 per person.

More wealth per person = more education, food, and opportunities per person = higher quality person = a better Chinese nation.

Overpopulation will keep China perpetually poor. China must stop overpopulation.

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Post time 2007-3-2 23:13:44 |Display all floors

what do i think...

greetings!  i feel china should let some of its people living aboard, because as of now china has too many elderly (in a sense, not too productive) & too many graduates fight for the same job (many of them working in not related field) , also china should free the solely child policy to re-entering the "new china" .  thank you for reading!   peter

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Post time 2007-3-3 01:12:47 |Display all floors
If China cannot feed, educate, and employ all these extra people, China will continue to have hoards of poor people. Thus, China will continue to suffer as a third world nation.

Here is a scenario. If in 2005 China has a wealth of $1 trillion and a population of 1 billion, then China has a per capital wealth is $1000 per person.

If in 2020 China's economy quadruples to $4 trillion and the population grows to 3 billion, China's per capita wealth is ~$1333.33 per person.

However, if in 2020, China has controlled its population growth so that China's population is still only 1 billion, then China's per capita wealth is $4000 per person.

More wealth per person = more education, food, and opportunities per person = higher quality person = a better Chinese nation.


You seem to be very pessimistic about China's future, most foreigners and mainland Chinese on the other hand are optimistic. Firstly, last year, China's population grew only <7million or 0.53%, US grew at 1%. At current trend China's population will stabilise at about 1440 million, thereafter a steady decline. China's total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.73, less than US at 2.09. It takes TFR of 2.1 to maintain the same population. East Asian everywhere has TFR of <1.9. Taiwan province at 1.57, Japan 1.4, South Korea 1.27, Singapore 1.06, Macau SAR 1.02 and Hong Kong SAR at 0.95. The last three are the world's lowest in TFR, therefore in order to remain competitive the governments in these places are encouraging people to have more babies. But people nowadays want to enjoy life, so this double income no kids (dinks) phenomenon is very common now. These places encourage immigration from China to maintain their racial makeup and remain competitive. Even Shanghai in the last 2 years encounter negative population growth. There is a danger that China may be doing too good a job. When people become wealthy there is a tendency to have fewer babies.

China's nominal GDP last year was 21 trillion rmb or US$2.68 trillion, but at purchasing power parity GDP it is US$10.1 trillion compared to USA of US$12.98 trillion. If China continue at this rate by 2010 it will have a bigger PPP GDP than USA. Very likely China will surpass Germany in nominal GDP this year and Japan by 2011. As long as one don't go overseas and buy only local products, it is PPP GDP that is important. Nominal GDP/capita last year was US$2034 and US$7680 at PPP GDP same as Ukraine. Goldman Sachs speculated that the RMB might rise 10% this year, and like other countries, nominal and PPP gap will narrow considerably.

It is India/Bangladesh/Africa/Philippines that have to worry, not China

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Post time 2007-3-3 02:59:49 |Display all floors
True but every country needs cheap labour and as you can tell America is addicted to it which is why USA will not build a full fence between Mexico and USA, if we didn't have cheap labour (Mexicans) then our economy would suffer.  

By that time when the Chinese urban class becomes rich, they would have no problem providing education to the rural population.

China will always need cheap labour but if it can't find it within then it will import it which will produce alot of problems as it is happening in Japan for example with fast increasing crime.

It's true India/Bangladesh/Africa/(not sure about the Philippines) that need to worry, not China.

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Post time 2007-3-3 04:48:23 |Display all floors
Originally posted by chinadaily at 2007-3-2 20:11
written by Overpopulation 2007-03-02 09:06

Chinese people must stop overpopulating China. It can cripple China's advancement.

If China cannot feed, educate, and employ a ...


You seem to think that a person is a burden, not a resource. It is PEOPLE that creates GDP. Look at South Korea. If China had only 500 million people, China would naturally have a lower GDP than today. In the future, the ratio of old people to working-age people will be very skewed, creating a depressing situation both for many old people who need care, but might not get it, the economy as a whole who could've used money on science and research instead of huge sums on pensions and health, and also for businesses who can't find the needed labor force and will suffer on the balance sheet as a result (And thus GDP). So it is a lose, lose, lose situation. One-child policy is a disastrous policy for the future. Chinese people are not from Mars, chinese people act and behave like other normal people, and they don't need this one-child policy to have fewer babies. In this modern world, we have contraception, urbanization, individualism, female higher education.

The person above me says alot of truth, but it is not true as is said above that Taiwan province has a fertility rate of 1,57. Taiwan's fertility rate is 1,1 children per woman, the lowest in the world (Population reference beureau). The authorities tries to increase it, but it is impossible. The same will be true for for the mainland in the future. We see the same happening in the mainland too, where people in the citites have fewer and fewer children, well belowe replacement rate. This WILL be disastrous for China in the future, make no mistake about it. Every country with low fertility rates today tries to increase it, because they know that the next generation will suffer as a result. The countries that today are the oldest countries, like Germany, Japan and Italy, all have very sluggish growth. They don't want to have such low birth rates and rapid aging, but they can't do anything about it. This will be the case with China too. China will never again have above replacement fertility rate and will forever have a population decline. Unlike other countries, immigration won't help in China either to increase the labor force. China will be old and grey, and fade away. The US and India will be young and vibrant, and lead the world.

[ Last edited by uligen at 2007-3-3 05:10 AM ]

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Post time 2007-3-3 06:18:40 |Display all floors
Originally posted by uligen at 2007-3-3 04:48


You seem to think that a person is a burden, not a resource. It is PEOPLE that creates GDP. Look at South Korea. If China had only 500 million people, China would naturally have a lower GDP tha ...


I agree the aging population will be a problem for many developed countries, I will be watching Japan for the next 10-20 years because the same thing will happen to China in 50 years.  But because Sweden has a low birthrate they are trying to increase the birthrate by providing 9 months off  work and the government provides 80% of their income for women and also employees get more time off to spend with the family so basically they provide better benefits for people that have kids and the ones that don't have kids are angry about this but it's not helping much for the birthrate.  Also, Russia is providing 10,000 USD for families that have a second child but still it's not working to help boost the birthrate.

[ Last edited by whiteeclipse at 2007-3-3 06:23 AM ]

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Post time 2007-3-3 07:15:29 |Display all floors
Originally posted by whiteeclipse at 2007-3-3 06:18


I agree the aging population will be a problem for many developed countries, I will be watching Japan for the next 10-20 years because the same thing will happen to China in 50 years.  But beca ...


Exactly. No country has ever managed to increase the fertility rate to replacement level from a level well below replacement. Japan is DOOMED. South Korea is going the same way. They have a ridiculously low 1,1 total fertility rate! Even lower than Japan, and they will very soon experience a huge aging burden on their economy, as Japan, but Japan is 10-15 years ahead of them. I know the swedish system quite well, and it might have helped the fertility rate from falling to the disastrous German or South European levels. You are right, even with such an expensive system, they still aren't able to get the fertility rate higher than around 1,6-1,8, which it has hovered around for the last few decades in Sweden. Russia as you say is desperate too. The worst situation is in Ukraine. There, the population is decreasing by 0,8% per year, migration not included! But overall, the whole of Eastern Europe is in a dire situation.

Why does the mainland insist that they will be poor with more people, when the examples of the complete opposite is right in front of them? South Korea just shows that it's no problem having a very high population density (much higher than China) and low resources per person, and still be well-off. Japan and Taiwan as well.

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