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How do you view Tsai Ing-wen re-elected in Taiwan? [Copy link] 中文

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On January 11, China's Taiwan region held leadership elections, and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected. Her victory has little to do with the Chinese mainland's Taiwan policy. The strong strategic resources and capabilities possessed by the Chinese mainland, especially the major achievements made through reforms in the new era, will ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Several reasons speak for the DPP's triumph. First, the DPP outsmarted the Kuomintang(KMT) in election campaigning. Known as a well-oiled election machine, the DPP accurately took the pulse of the people on the island and put forward policy ideas that could resonate with the local people. It also dug deep into the weak spots of its political rivals and then launched extensive media and public opinion campaigns to make a good case. That said, campaign skills only guarantee the DPP's wining at a "technical" level. The key to Tsai's success is that a major change of demographic structure, political identity and public participation in politics has been taking place on the island.

In terms of demographics, Tsai Ing-wen won the support of young people on the island. She got almost 70 percent of the votes among people aged 20 to 39 and surpassed her political rival, Han Kuo-yu, among people over 40.

In terms of political identity, since Lee Teng-hui initiated the "de-sinicization" in the local education, almost everyone under 40 grew up being indoctrinated with the idea of "independence." Also, with the development of political activities such as elections, the ideas of "self-awareness," "ownership" and "de-sinicization" have gradually taken hold and spread among people over the age of 40.

In terms of political participation, a large number of young Taiwanese returned to local ballot stations to cast their votes and eventually altered the election results. Prior to this election, it was predicted that Han Kuo-yu would win because Tsai's young supporters would not turn out to vote in light of their past voting behavior. The voter turnout in this election increased substantially, by almost 10 percent, which was mainly contributed by the active young voters.

Tsai's overwhelming victory has little to do with the Chinese mainland's Taiwan policy. In the election, Tsai did make a fuss of the strategic competition between China and the U.S. and the fugitive bill movement in Hong Kong to propagate a "sense of fear" in the region. This only demonstrates that cross-Strait relations are one of the important factors influencing elections on the island.

In recent years, the Chinese mainland has been adhering to the policy of "peaceful reunification" and the "One Country, Two Systems" principle to drive the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, the promotion of cross-Strait economic integration and equal treatment of Taiwan compatriots. These are all wise decisions. Such policies have been welcomed by the people on the island, especially the Taiwan compatriots who have come to the mainland to find jobs, start businesses and receive an education.

The future of cross-Strait relations may be full of challenges, but confidence should be put in place to address them. At the press conference on the evening of January 11, Tsai Ing-wen highlighted cross-Strait relations and put forward a proposition of "peace, parity, democracy and dialogue." This again shows Tsai's ability to tread a fine line and evade responsibility. She was not vocal about the so-called Taiwan independence, but every word she said hinted at it.

The Chinese mainland has repeatedly stated that the lynchpin of cross-Strait relations is to uphold the 1992 Consensus and oppose to the "Taiwan independence." If Tsai does not take a clear stance on the above two issues, the chance of cross-Strait relations improvement is flimsy.

However, even if Tsai does not change her original stance, or steps up her efforts to promote separatist activities, the Chinese mainland is confident and able to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

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Every boat must sooner or later return to its original harbour.

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good that she is re-elected

she is as strong as Merkel is
some day Jiangsu will rule China

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This post was edited by Kbay at 2020-1-14 22:18

When you stretched out both hands in offer of friendship, but instead they spat onto your palms, the proper thing to do then is for Beijing to reverse all the concessions and investments made to the renegade province; tightening the economic screw and watch how these arrogant islanders fill their empty bellies with false promises of self determination pipe dreams from Tsai.

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Tsai couldn't have won if:

(1) The Mainland played its cards right - certainly the single biggest factor that caused her to win such a huge turnout on her side. Of course the Mainland will try hard to paint it differently.

(2) KMT had a leadership being employed by DPP so there is no chance it was ever going to win. Of course these culprits will try to paint it as selfishness, indecisiveness etc. everything except being paid of by DPP.

(3) Of course it has always been a tussle between China and US on Taiwan and Hong Kong.

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The Mainland's primary weaknesses:

(1) A political system and disposition that may not be in line with the current trend, thus amy not appeal, could be misunderstood, not well appreciated and also the removal of a fixed Presidential term goes against current global trend of limiting the tenure of such a position.

(2) There is a strong competition targeting Mainland China from the Anglo sphere. The answer is not in counter attacking but how to converge without exposing oneself to be taken advantage of.

(3) Are China's own characteristics of universal value, are such values understood and appreciated by its own people on a willing basis?

(4) Too few good strategies and many strategies are ineffective to counter foreign values and ideologies. Sometimes it isn't about rejection of things foreign. Sometimes it is about agreeing and accepting others and enhancing one's own value to become more superior for injection into the prevailing system. For example China has been having vegetarian practices for millenniums. Rightfully China should be at the forefront promoting such healthy lifestyle that premise on vegetarian staple and diet. If this lead is taken over by Westerners then it is an example of how weak and ineffective China is. As it is now "vegetarian meat" meals are surfacing through popular food chains. Its an example of how China failed to capitalize on its traditional strength while not being able to acquire any new leadership. Even China's tradition of paying respect to their ancestors is a very good practice but is this well understood and practised by its own people eagerly or are they just following like a herd of cows without thinking? Not only this, China should exhibit such good values to its neighbours through creative appealing means. If China cannot influence without using monetary means then its difficult to innovate.

(5) Over-reliance on "monetary based solutions" - materialistic is another word. This is a traditional Chinese weakness. Not everything boils down to having money. Of course everyone knows that one cannot do without money. Mainland Chinese at one time needed money to survive hence money based solutions worked. But once this is achieved, people will look beyond it. Blindly forcing people in the same direction is self-inflicted-defeat.

(6) Everyday singing the same mantra "Marxism" and "party loyalty" isn't smart. True Marxism has its virtues and CPC did lead China out of its doldrums on good moral basis. No doubt about that. But for many in Hong Kong and Taiwan, they were already out of monetary issues while the Mainland was still trying to get out of the difficulty. Thus to those fellows a different tune must be sung. Its impossible "one size fits all". When it comes to Hong Kong and Taiwan, a more advance approach is needed to attract them over.

China's:
(i) Democratic Socialism is good for the Mainland;
(ii) One country two systems is good for Mainland-Hong Kong-Macau administration; and
(iii) "1992 Consensus" is good for Taiwan reconciliation.
Its a question of how to put all three mechanisms into smooth successful application and how to link them up as one at the same time. Get the youths from Mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan onto Mainland to think this out.

What people want:
(1) A fair and equitable system (whether it is one-party, two-parties or multiple parties system it is only as good as the people manning it - its how to make people realise this);
(2) Excellent education;
(3) Excellent livelihood opportunities;
(4) Expression of thoughts without fear and restriction though within limits of morality, respect and integrity;
(5) Family warmth and integrity;
(6) Some individual privacy/room/space.

A country leading like this will draw people and support easily. When everyone is interested, unity comes naturally.

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Mainland's 1.4 billion need to assume global leadership of virtue and family integrity with positive appeal.

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